Duke Mu
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Cuba turned out well.
US STRIKES VENEZUELA / CAPTURES MADURO
- Thread starter nycfan
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- Politics
Duke Mu
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Xi? LRM?
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Yeah having Rubio out there trying to push the "narcoterrorism" explanation literal weeks after Trump pardoned a foreign leader convicted of smuggling huge amounts of drugs into the US is making it really hard to believe anything they're saying.
The bottom line is that the Latin America hawks in the admin, led by Rubio, pulled the wool over Trump's eyes with the whole BS "fentanyl" angle, and got the regime change they've wanted all along, while basically treating Trump like a cat with a laser pointer by letting him watch all the cool explosions on his special President TV.
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lol at thinking ram gives two craps about the rule of law. He would break the law in a heartbeat if he thought it would help him personally. He wipes his butt with whatever oaths he swore as an attorney.
1moretimeagain
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Serious no snark/no attack question:
Did you think that Bush had a theoretically defensible case for invading IRAQ and removing Saddam Hussein ?
Duke Mu
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If this is all about "narcoterrorism," then what is the terrorism the trafficking is supporting? The EU? That's where the drugs were heading.
So the statute doesn’t define “narco-terrorism” as a stand-alone category of terrorism in the way the general terrorism definitions work (e.g., in 18 U.S.C. § 2331), but it does specifically criminalize drug trafficking tied to supporting terrorist activity. Department of Justice
So the statute doesn’t define “narco-terrorism” as a stand-alone category of terrorism in the way the general terrorism definitions work (e.g., in 18 U.S.C. § 2331), but it does specifically criminalize drug trafficking tied to supporting terrorist activity. Department of Justice
- The law links drug trafficking with terrorism support: someone knowingly providing value from drug trafficking to terrorists can be charged.
- It draws on existing definitions of “terrorist activity” from other U.S. statutes (e.g., the INA terrorism definitions that feed into terrorist designation frameworks). Department of Justice
- Because of this structure, “narco-terrorism” in statute is really an enhanced drug offense tied to providing support to terrorism, not a broad terrorism offense by itself.
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Yellow Cake?
Duke Mu
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They had better excuses, but LIED about them.
1moretimeagain
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Depends on what you think Bush knew/believed about "WMDs"
Duke Mu
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Germany is next. Here. We. Go.The abandonment of Ukraine started the ball rolling. Actions like this will only cause it to accelerate.
For example…
Japan needs to possess nuclear weapons, prime minister's office source says
A source within Japan's prime minister's office said Thursday that the country needs nuclear weapons, remarks that deviate from the country's long-standing non-nuclear principles and could trigger backlash at home and abroad.english.kyodonews.net
Oh this sounds like just a tidbit more than a precise special military operation. Where is Paul Wolfowitz when you need him?
donbosco
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From James Bosworth (Very well-respected regional analyst and author of the "Latin American Risk Report"):
"Uncertainty rather than optimism or pessimism. Many people will claim there is a clear path to what comes next. Already, this morning, I’ve spoken with some people convinced that a transition to Edmundo Gonzalez is a near certainty in the coming days while others think that Maduro’s exit will just leave the Chavistas in charge, and as brutal as ever, for years to come. It’s actually a roll of the dice and a bit of chaos. Honest analysis means it’s ok to say “I don’t know.” There are scenarios in which Delcy takes over, though that is complicated by the fact she is coincidentally out of the country in Moscow this morning. Or Diosdado, Padrino Lopez, some random colonel, some random civilian, or the opposition led by Edmundo Gonzalez and Maria Corina Machado. There will be a power struggle within the Chavista leadership, a power struggle among military leaders, and outside forces including the opposition, neighboring countries, and criminal groups demanding a say. The honest answer is that I don’t know exactly what will happen and I strongly doubt others do either. Some will guess correctly and others will guess incorrectly, but don’t fall for the hindsight bias on this.
Scenarios within chaos. When I wrote about Venezuela’s scenarios in early December, I said that “chaos” was more likely than a “miracle transition” in which Gonzalez and Machado take over and restore democracy. I think that remains true. However, now that we are in the “chaos box,” as one friend called it, there are plenty of sub-scenarios within that box, some more chaotic and violent than others. I’ll write more about those scenarios in the coming days, once there is more info.
One likely scenario is multiple changes. The person who takes over Venezuela’s de facto presidency today is not necessarily the person who will control the country in 12 months or even 12 days later. Don’t assume the next transition is the last one we’ll see this year. Or the one after that.
Debate what happened. Go ahead and argue about the legitimacy, constitutionality, strategy, and precedent of this operation. I know I will. The geopolitical and US implications of today’s events should be discussed in depth. They cannot be glossed over because the initial outcome was successful. We should specifically worry about the precedent that it sets for other countries to conduct similar operations. However, with that said….
The US and the region should work toward a peaceful and democratic transition. Maduro’s exit is an opportunity. The worst thing that can happen is that a bunch of people decide to argue about what Trump did this morning and leave Venezuela to manage its own chaos. I’m not suggesting that Congressional Democrats and Lula jump on board in support of Trump and his actions, but if all they offer is criticism of what’s already occurred, then it’s a lost opportunity. This is a moment for regional leadership to discuss how they are going to help Venezuela transition back to democracy, and that should not get lost amid the criticisms of what just occurred. The debate we should have this morning is how to turn this event from something chaotic into something that is sustainably positive for the country and the region."
Latin American Risk Report:
boz.substack.com
"Uncertainty rather than optimism or pessimism. Many people will claim there is a clear path to what comes next. Already, this morning, I’ve spoken with some people convinced that a transition to Edmundo Gonzalez is a near certainty in the coming days while others think that Maduro’s exit will just leave the Chavistas in charge, and as brutal as ever, for years to come. It’s actually a roll of the dice and a bit of chaos. Honest analysis means it’s ok to say “I don’t know.” There are scenarios in which Delcy takes over, though that is complicated by the fact she is coincidentally out of the country in Moscow this morning. Or Diosdado, Padrino Lopez, some random colonel, some random civilian, or the opposition led by Edmundo Gonzalez and Maria Corina Machado. There will be a power struggle within the Chavista leadership, a power struggle among military leaders, and outside forces including the opposition, neighboring countries, and criminal groups demanding a say. The honest answer is that I don’t know exactly what will happen and I strongly doubt others do either. Some will guess correctly and others will guess incorrectly, but don’t fall for the hindsight bias on this.
Scenarios within chaos. When I wrote about Venezuela’s scenarios in early December, I said that “chaos” was more likely than a “miracle transition” in which Gonzalez and Machado take over and restore democracy. I think that remains true. However, now that we are in the “chaos box,” as one friend called it, there are plenty of sub-scenarios within that box, some more chaotic and violent than others. I’ll write more about those scenarios in the coming days, once there is more info.
One likely scenario is multiple changes. The person who takes over Venezuela’s de facto presidency today is not necessarily the person who will control the country in 12 months or even 12 days later. Don’t assume the next transition is the last one we’ll see this year. Or the one after that.
Debate what happened. Go ahead and argue about the legitimacy, constitutionality, strategy, and precedent of this operation. I know I will. The geopolitical and US implications of today’s events should be discussed in depth. They cannot be glossed over because the initial outcome was successful. We should specifically worry about the precedent that it sets for other countries to conduct similar operations. However, with that said….
The US and the region should work toward a peaceful and democratic transition. Maduro’s exit is an opportunity. The worst thing that can happen is that a bunch of people decide to argue about what Trump did this morning and leave Venezuela to manage its own chaos. I’m not suggesting that Congressional Democrats and Lula jump on board in support of Trump and his actions, but if all they offer is criticism of what’s already occurred, then it’s a lost opportunity. This is a moment for regional leadership to discuss how they are going to help Venezuela transition back to democracy, and that should not get lost amid the criticisms of what just occurred. The debate we should have this morning is how to turn this event from something chaotic into something that is sustainably positive for the country and the region."
Latin American Risk Report:
About - Latin America Risk Report
Daily analysis of politics and security in Latin America. Click to read Latin America Risk Report, by Boz, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
boz.substack.com
whatntarnation
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Duke Mu
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"This time we're taking the oil."
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JCTarheel82
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From one illegitimate ruling party to another.
CharmCityTiger
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Has anybody grappled with the implications that the US will "run" Venezuela until a transition is in place? That sounds like a very serious commitment.