Yeah, we have an uphill battle. The rare earth metals case is an easy example. They allow zero regulation, cheap, environmentally harmful extraction practices for rare earth metals. We broke the sole site in the US that can harvest some of these rare earth metals because it was a turtle habitat. The US Gov should've stepped in, taken over the mine for military purposes, then done the needful. Instead the private industry trying to fetch the resources couldn't afford to. They've tried twice, and both times it has been too expensive... and now China has cornered the market on extraction AND production.
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Why is China saying this at this very moment?
- Thread starter DougDaBroadcasta
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HintonJamesHeel
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If we know anything in this country, a leader tweeting shit out is meaningless.
China has:
Currently a struggling economy
Huge reliance on imports
Terrible consumer confidence
Basically no diversity
Aging population
Declining birthrate
None of that takes into account the cost and overhead of being communist and suppressing thought and individualism.
China is not a threat. It used to be but no longer.
China has:
Currently a struggling economy
Huge reliance on imports
Terrible consumer confidence
Basically no diversity
Aging population
Declining birthrate
None of that takes into account the cost and overhead of being communist and suppressing thought and individualism.
China is not a threat. It used to be but no longer.
Mulberry Heel
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Yes, but we didn't have Donald Trump and his Cult of Personality in total control of the government then either. Electing Trump was like shooting yourself in both feet while investing all of your money in Trump Steaks and MyPillow.
Mulberry Heel
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And our current government is waging a war on diversity and trying to eliminate it, and the only thing keeping us from having a declining, aging population and declining birthrate are (surprise!) immigrants, which Trump 2.0 wants to drive out of the country. The very things America needs to keep us at the top are the very things that Trumpers want to abolish and remove - our diversity and immigrants. Go figure.
Ironic post is ironic.
superrific
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This is overstated. As productivity rises, the ratio of young to old matters less and less. Too much is being made of the population decline.
In a world of extensive (if not complete) automation, capitalism will break down. Or, perhaps a better way of thinking about it is that capitalism would have prevailed. It would have reached its end goal: providing the organization and technology to maximize economic well being. At that point, the main concern of government will be distributional, and capitalism doesn't have a theory of distribution. In a sense, that's one of its superpowers. But if the robots do everything, few people will have a greater than zero marginal productivity. There will have to be a different way of dividing the spoils than the market.
We have a LOT of work to do to adjust to that future, should it arrive. China has less work to do in that regard, because their societal and economic model already relies on the state making distributional decisions, according to an established ideology.
It's entirely possible that, after full automation of the economy, Marx's prediction of the downfall of capitalism and the rise of socialist/communist political systems will finally be realized, a couple of centuries too late.
This is all speculative, of course, but it's not more speculative than any other theory about the future.
superrific
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1. China's "struggling economy" grew at 4.5% last year. "Struggling" is relative, one supposes. It's easier to grow when the baseline is lower per capita, so I'm not saying China's economy is currently superior to Western economies. But let's get the facts on the table.
2. Huge reliance on imports? Come again?
3. I've already addressed aging population and declining birthrate.
These factors matter when the individual is the key unit of production. When that ceases to be true, they become far less important than what the economists call industrial organization. The industrial organization of the future will not exactly follow its past.
superrific
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I don't know about the national purpose part -- I'm not sure how important that is, or whether it exists outside of propaganda.
I agree with the rest of it.
Centerpiece
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Before long, after too much Maga, Trumplandia will be the same. Not a threat. It used to be but no longer.
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because it's true
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"China is not a threat. It used to be but no longer."
u keep believing that, francis
u keep believing that, francis
superrific
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Well, right. It clearly exists within the propaganda. It clearly exists in the statements of ideology, which have never been terribly meaningful under the CCP because the people in charge are not constrained by the rules.
Do the people share in that view? The Chinese scholars I knew generally thought not. By Chinese scholars, I don't mean scholars of China (I don't have much interaction with that world); rather, I mean people who come to the States from China to do scholarship, some of which is in corporate law. They tell a story of a population that views the government as more or less a big corporation with a secret police. The government provides jobs and something of a safety net and the communism shit, the Maoist cooptation of traditional Chinese energy, and the "national purpose" doesn't really resonate with the people. We just don't know this because their voices are suppressed.
I realize that people who left China to come to the US (even temporarily) are not fully representative of the Chinese people but they are a lot more knowledgeable than I am. Also, their stories match what I've read.
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Possibly related:
—> https://www.wsj.com/business/energy...1?st=P7Bfie&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
“… Iran exports around 1.7 million barrels of crude a day, less than 2% of global demand. The U.S. reimposed sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports in late 2018, a few months after President Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal during his first term.
… Most countries won’t touch Iran’s sanctioned crude, so Tehran is forced to sell at a discount and find covert ways to get it onto the market. It uses a “dark fleet” of tankers that sail with their transponders turned off to ship cargoes of oil.
…
The discount on Iran’s oil compared with a similar grade of nonsanctioned crude such as Oman Export Blend is currently around $2 a barrel, according to Tom Reed, vice president of China crude at commodity data provider Argus Media. The gap has narrowed recently because of worries that conflict with Israel and stricter enforcement of U.S. sanctions could disrupt Iranian supply. The discount has been wider in the past, averaging $11 in 2023 and $4 in 2024.…”
If Iran’s Oil Is Cut Off, China Will Pay the Price
Chinese refineries have become hooked on cheap imports of sanctioned Iranian crude
—> https://www.wsj.com/business/energy...1?st=P7Bfie&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink“… Iran exports around 1.7 million barrels of crude a day, less than 2% of global demand. The U.S. reimposed sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports in late 2018, a few months after President Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal during his first term.
… Most countries won’t touch Iran’s sanctioned crude, so Tehran is forced to sell at a discount and find covert ways to get it onto the market. It uses a “dark fleet” of tankers that sail with their transponders turned off to ship cargoes of oil.
…
The discount on Iran’s oil compared with a similar grade of nonsanctioned crude such as Oman Export Blend is currently around $2 a barrel, according to Tom Reed, vice president of China crude at commodity data provider Argus Media. The gap has narrowed recently because of worries that conflict with Israel and stricter enforcement of U.S. sanctions could disrupt Iranian supply. The discount has been wider in the past, averaging $11 in 2023 and $4 in 2024.…”
HintonJamesHeel
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I’m talking about the perception that was long held that China would become the predominant superpower in the world. That is not going to happen.
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To the extent that language is a surrogate for diversity, I agree that China does have some diversity.
And if language spoken is a surrogate for divesity, then I could not find a map showing such divesity in the US. However I did find a map showimg language spoken at home. Not much diversity.
ETA: My Dad was stationed with the Marines in China in the aftermath of WW2. His home base was the Portuguese Barracks in Tianjin. Two of his observations about that time have always stuck with men. 1. The land controlled by Chiang Kai-Shek in China was limited to the appoximate square yard directly underneath the feet of a US Marine. 2. When travelling in China, my father was always accompanied by an interpreter. But approximately every twenty miles travelled required his interpreter to find a second interpreter to speak to anyone local.
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Speak for yourself douchebag
p5mmr9
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The current Chinese system isn't "leftist" - the Chinese "Communist Party" isn't communist. It is authoritarian and doesn't really fit well on the Left/Right axis. In fact, there was debate in the party about changing their name but they kept it for "historical" reasons. Regardless, the Chinese people have benefited from the Chinese government's leadership in many areas. More people have been lifted out of poverty in China over the last 30 years than any other place in the history of civilization. China's poverty rate fell from nearly 90% in 1980 (!!!) to .7% now. It's a remarkable change. Infrastructure - roads, transportation, healthcare - have all improved equally dramatically.
Where the PRC fails is obviously human rights, freedom of speech, freedom of movement. Its treatment of the Uyghur and ethnic Tibetans is abhorrent. And since Covid - these issues have become more pronounced. Post Covid - China has faced a number of significant challenges and prior to Trump's inauguration - China appeared to be on the brink of economic collapse. They have a significant debt crisis that is only getitng worse and their youth unemployment is at staggering levels (22% ++) - they have a legion of unemployed university educated youths and only factory jobs available. It's a major crisis - and one that has historically led to open rebellion and strife.
All of that said - China is generally and historically anti-imperialist. What China demands is economic power more than imperialist power. China seeks the means to control its own corner of the world while insuring maximum economic benefit to its country. This isn't the Soviet Union, but I'm also not sure it is as much a threat to the USA hegemony as a lot of people think. They are however a significant threat to western IP. IP theft is their greatest crime and it is ongoing.
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Centerpiece
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The excuse for our stagnation is gridlock in Washington D.C.
What we need is a strong, right wing, authoritarian dictator who stays in power for at least 20 years over one-party rule. Exterminate the “other” within our midst and instead of deporting “illegal” immigrants we should enslave them to work the farms, fields, meat-packing plants and to clean our bathrooms and buildings and to cook and serve our food.
Then we will be “great again” and rule over the world the way Jesus, our Lord and Saviour has intended!
Only I can make that happen! Vote for moi!
What we need is a strong, right wing, authoritarian dictator who stays in power for at least 20 years over one-party rule. Exterminate the “other” within our midst and instead of deporting “illegal” immigrants we should enslave them to work the farms, fields, meat-packing plants and to clean our bathrooms and buildings and to cook and serve our food.
Then we will be “great again” and rule over the world the way Jesus, our Lord and Saviour has intended!
Only I can make that happen! Vote for moi!
HintonJamesHeel
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Speaking of unserious…I don’t know any expert that thinks China is in a better position than the US and that with a felon as president followed by an old man followed by the felon.
p5mmr9
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It's likely that 4.5% GDP growth is exaggerated by half...and even if it is not - 4.5% represents a significant reduction from their Pre-Covid levels. China's biggest issue vis a vis its economy is that historically and culturally they've focused on production and anti-consumption - and transitioning to a consumption based economy is difficult. And regardless - having a few billion unemployed workers - as AI and automation handle production - is a recipe for social disaster. So, while I agree that China may be better suited to handle the social welfare of a community completely reliant on automation - it also doesn't paint a rosy picture.