2024 Political Polls

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politicalwire.com

A Massive Shift in the Rust Belt States

Data for Progress polled Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin a month ago and again last week.The first poll was just before Joe Biden dropped his re-election bid and Donald Trump led Kamala Harris in these battleground states by 7 percentage points (and Biden by 6 percentage points).The se
politicalwire.com politicalwire.com

Data for Progress polled Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin a month ago and again last week.

The first poll was just before Joe Biden dropped his re-election bid and Donald Trump led Kamala Harris in these battleground states by 7 percentage points (and Biden by 6 percentage points).

The second poll last week found Harris now leads Trump by 1 percentage point.

Key takeaway: “Overall, the results suggest that Democrats have a chance to reclaim the narrative going into the final months of the election campaign. Harris has made important improvements in terms of her favorability ratings and has a narrow lead over Trump in the Rust Belt collectively. The presidential race once again appears to be a true tossup.”
 
I would go under the assumption Trump will win regardless what the polls say. The polls had Biden leading many states he lost in 2020, same with Hillary.
 
aGDevil2k said:
While reading them say Trump is stronger gives me anxiety, it's also good that people not get complacent
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Me too, but I choose to concentrate on the fact that those three states becoming tossups again gives Harris more paths to victory than a straight sweep of the rust belt trio. In fact, it puts her in a position to pull another electoral landslide if all the chips fall into place like they did for Biden in 2020, even with tight margins.
 
Faucette said:
I would go under the assumption Trump will win regardless what the polls say. The polls had Biden leading many states he lost in 2020, same with Hillary.
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Hillary, yes, but which states was Biden polling ahead and lost? The EC wasn’t really that close in 2020.
 
RockyMtnHoo said:
Hillary, yes, but which states was Biden polling ahead and lost? The EC wasn’t really that close in 2020.
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There is not a single state that Biden was polling ahead (by average) even at this point, and lost. He was not leading in NC or Florida. He won every other swing state.
 
Faucette said:
I would go under the assumption Trump will win regardless what the polls say. The polls had Biden leading many states he lost in 2020, same with Hillary.
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Definitely not my recollection. What data underpins this position?
 
Harris is looking pretty good at this point and probably has a higher ceiling than Trump going into November

Harris leading Trump in latest general election polls by same margin as Biden did after 2020 election

according to latest RCP polls:

Harris +1 in WI Biden won by .63% in 2020
Harris +4 in MI Biden won by 2.8% in 2020
Harris Tied in GA Biden won by .3% in 2020
Trump +1 in PA Biden won by 1.2% in 2020
Trump+2 in NC Trump won by1.3% in 2020
Trump +2 in AZ Biden won by .4% in 2020
Harris +2 in NV Biden won by 1.3% in 2020

ETA: A new poll finding Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by six points in the upcoming presidential election has shocked political insiders and experts.

www.rawstory.com

'Nothing short of incredible': Experts stunned by new polling on Harris-Trump race

A new poll finding Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by six points in the upcoming presidential election has shocked political insiders and experts.The Marquette Law School Poll national survey found Harris preferred by 53 percent of likely voters while Trump was...
www.rawstory.com www.rawstory.com

The Marquette Law School Poll national survey found Harris preferred by 53 percent of likely voters while Trump was the choice of only 47 percent, according to a Wednesday press release.
 
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heelinhell said:
Harris is looking pretty good at this point and probably has a higher ceiling than Trump going into November

Harris leading Trump in latest general election polls by same margin as Biden did after 2020 election

according to latest RCP polls:

Harris +1 in WI Biden won by .63% in 2020
Harris +4 in MI Biden won by 2.8% in 2020
Harris Tied in GA Biden won by .3% in 2020
Trump +1 in PA Biden won by 1.2% in 2020
Trump+2 in NC Trump won by1.3% in 2020
Trump +2 in AZ Biden won by .4% in 2020
Harris +2 in NV Biden won by 1.3% in 2020
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All the transplants to NC and it still goes to Trump. This state outside the Triangle, Triad, Charlotte and the college towns is still backwards.
 
CarolinaFever said:
All the transplants to NC and it still goes to Trump. This state outside the Triangle, Triad, Charlotte and the college towns is still backwards.
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You could say the same thing literally about any other state. California without the coastal metro areas would be heavily pro-Trump. It’s just that 30 million people live in those coastal metro areas.
 
Maybe two different countries isn't a bad idea, but the rural Pub areas wouldn't last financially without the urban areas.
 
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