2024 Political Polls

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CFordUNC said:
The fact that the Trump campaign and Republicans in general are having to play defense in all of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Texas, and Georgia is a big problem for them.
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And that it’s starting to look like they wasted a ton of money in Wisconsin and Michigan. The main state for EVERYONE to be watching right now is Pennsylvania. I’d love to see Kamala with a lead outside the MOE there by the end of the month.
 
lawtig02 said:
And that it’s starting to look like they wasted a ton of money in Wisconsin and Michigan. The main state for EVERYONE to be watching right now is Pennsylvania. I’d love to see Kamala with a lead outside the MOE there by the end of the month.
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Totally agree. Can’t imagine that Trump’s comments about union workers last night helps him any in Pennsylvania, where there are almost 800,000 union members.
 
lawtig02 said:
And that it’s starting to look like they wasted a ton of money in Wisconsin and Michigan. The main state for EVERYONE to be watching right now is Pennsylvania. I’d love to see Kamala with a lead outside the MOE there by the end of the month.
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By my math, if Dems win PA, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, they can lose AZ, NV, and Georgia and still get to 270. Right?
 
Calheel said:
There is a lot of time between now and November. A lot of time for either campaign to mess up.
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You gotta think Trump is the runaway betting favorite on the "which campaign is more likely to mess up b/w now and November" card...
 
CFordUNC said:
The fact that the Trump campaign and Republicans in general are having to play defense in all of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Texas, and Georgia is a big problem for them.
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Especially since the RNC has been gutted and turned into Trumps piggy bank run by his cronies for his personal use instead of the broad arm used to fund National congressional races.
 
lawtig02 said:
And that it’s starting to look like they wasted a ton of money in Wisconsin and Michigan. The main state for EVERYONE to be watching right now is Pennsylvania. I’d love to see Kamala with a lead outside the MOE there by the end of the month.
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It's not wasting money in WI and MI. I mean, every campaign spends money in states they lose. Trump has way too much money to spend in PA alone. If he diverted all of his MI and WI money to PA, the marginal return would be close to zero if not zero.

Plus, nobody thought he would win Michigan or Wisconsin in 2016. They were called the "blue wall" states for a reason. Ironic, of course, that the campaign founded on the impenetrability of a wall found its success bursting through one (admittedly metaphoric).
 
altmin said:
Not a good poll for Kamla Harris or Tim Walz
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that's your takeaway? That's actually a pretty good poll. If they lose Florida by 2, they are likely in the White House. Biden lost Florida by 3.3%
Also things out of Dade county make it sound like Trump is not nearly as popular now vs her as he was 4 years ago

If she improves on Biden by 1% in every battleground, this is not a very close race.
 
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