2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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CFordUNC said:
The fact that the Trump campaign and Republicans in general are having to play defense in all of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Texas, and Georgia is a big problem for them.
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Especially since the RNC has been gutted and turned into Trumps piggy bank run by his cronies for his personal use instead of the broad arm used to fund National congressional races.
 
lawtig02 said:
And that it’s starting to look like they wasted a ton of money in Wisconsin and Michigan. The main state for EVERYONE to be watching right now is Pennsylvania. I’d love to see Kamala with a lead outside the MOE there by the end of the month.
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It's not wasting money in WI and MI. I mean, every campaign spends money in states they lose. Trump has way too much money to spend in PA alone. If he diverted all of his MI and WI money to PA, the marginal return would be close to zero if not zero.

Plus, nobody thought he would win Michigan or Wisconsin in 2016. They were called the "blue wall" states for a reason. Ironic, of course, that the campaign founded on the impenetrability of a wall found its success bursting through one (admittedly metaphoric).
 
altmin said:
Not a good poll for Kamla Harris or Tim Walz
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that's your takeaway? That's actually a pretty good poll. If they lose Florida by 2, they are likely in the White House. Biden lost Florida by 3.3%
Also things out of Dade county make it sound like Trump is not nearly as popular now vs her as he was 4 years ago

If she improves on Biden by 1% in every battleground, this is not a very close race.
 
heelinhell said:
With abortion on the ballot and supported by 69% let's see what Fla looks like on election day.

Not saying Harris wins but Fla is in play:cool:
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Abortion rights AND recreational weed are on the ballot. I still don’t see a path for Harris there but maybe steal a Senates seat?
 
nycfan said:
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I mean...she's only been running for 3 weeks, only had a VP for 1, and hasnt had a convention.

Also, I dont think Trump is more popular. I think more people are just open to saying they like him than they were in those 2 cycles.
 
Man, I truly do understand the need for restrained exuberance, and I truly do understand that Team Blue still has to put in the work every day between now and November and still has to GOTV, and I truly do understand that people want to be cautious and not get bitten in the ass like they did in 2016, but.....like, this election isn't even remotely comparable to 2016, in my opinion. So many pundits are acting like the Democrats don't have enormous advantages over the other team in terms of energy, enthusiasm, excitement, fundraising, grassroots volunteerism, etc. Could Trump win the election straight-up? Yeah, he could. Is it looking more and more and more likely with each passing day that he will lose? Yeah, it is. In fact, it's looking more and more and more likely with each passing day that Republicans are heading for an absolute asskicking this fall. Pundits acting otherwise are essentially telling me to disbelieve my lying eyes. Very irritating.
 
Is there any reason to think that the polling miss of 2016-2020 will be repeated? I suspect it will be the opposite: there will likely be overcorrections. If I had to guess, I would say Trump slightly underperforms his polls.
 
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