2024 Political Polls

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“…
Harris has closed the gap with Trump since the last Swing State Project survey in May, when Trump led President Joe Biden by three points overall, and was ahead or tied in every one of the seven swing states.

The one state where Trump still holds a slim lead is Nevada, though Harris has narrowed Trump’s margin by six points since May. …”
 
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Their NC and NV results appear scrambled to me. But they also indicate Trump gets hit harder by including third party candidates in states where Harris has the lead (except Michigan, where there may be a dedicated anti-Democrat but also anti-Trump voting bloc?).
 
nycfan said:
Trump still in zero danger of losing Texas
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Right, of course not, but the point is that if he’s losing significant ground to Harris in Texas of all places, imagine what’s happening in places where he is in much higher danger of losing. Places like North Carolina and Georgia, to say nothing of the other battleground states.
 
lawtig02 said:
I think we may start to see a difference in WWC polling in the Midwest than in the South and other more solidly red areas. That’s bad for Trump, of course, as he must have some success against the Blue Wall to win.
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Yeah, if he really is losing that much support from among the role, white, non college educated folks, even if that just means that they don’t turn out to vote for him as opposed to actually voting for Harris, he is going to get wiped out.
 
nycfan said:
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Takes like this continue to bug me because they assume the polling companies haven’t adjusted their models since 2016 and 2020. Yes, Kamala will need to win the popular vote by a few percentage points to win the EC. But we truly have no idea how big of a lead she needs in the polls to reflect that popular vote margin. If the polling companies have adjusted correctly, her current lead, if it stays constant, is probably enough. But we won’t know if they adjusted correctly until after the election.
 
CFordUNC said:
Right, of course not, but the point is that if he’s losing significant ground to Harris in Texas of all places, imagine what’s happening in places where he is in much higher danger of losing. Places like North Carolina and Georgia, to say nothing of the other battleground states.
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Plus, if it gets much closer in Texas and/or Florida, the Trump campaign is going to have to spend money in those expensive ad markets to defend those states. If Trump lost either, it would be game over and likely a landslide. Imagine what a Democratic campaign would look like if it had to spend serious money in California, Illiinois, or New York? That's what Trump's campaign looks like now. All of Trump's money should be going into swing states he lost in 2020, not into states he WON in 2020.
 
UNCMSinLS said:
Plus, if it gets much closer in Texas and/or Florida, the Trump campaign is going to have to spend money in those expensive ad markets to defend those states. If Trump lost either, it would be game over and likely a landslide. Imagine what a Democratic campaign would look like if it had to spend serious money in California, Illiinois, or New York? That's what Trump's campaign looks like now. All of Trump's money should be going into swing states he lost in 2020, not into states he WON in 2020.
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Precisely!
 
lawtig02 said:
Takes like this continue to bug me because they assume the polling companies haven’t adjusted their models since 2016 and 2020. Yes, Kamala will need to win the popular vote by a few percentage points to win the EC. But we truly have no idea how big of a lead she needs in the polls to reflect that popular vote margin. If the polling companies have adjusted correctly, her current lead, if it stays constant, is probably enough. But we won’t know if they adjusted correctly until after the election.
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Well it IS Cillizza after all
 
lawtig02 said:
Takes like this continue to bug me because they assume the polling companies haven’t adjusted their models since 2016 and 2020. Yes, Kamala will need to win the popular vote by a few percentage points to win the EC. But we truly have no idea how big of a lead she needs in the polls to reflect that popular vote margin. If the polling companies have adjusted correctly, her current lead, if it stays constant, is probably enough. But we won’t know if they adjusted correctly until after the election.
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Precisely why I no longer give much attention to national polling. I can assume pollsters made adjustments, but I don’t know. Yes, it’d be nice to see a 7pt lead, and that would likely portend a strong EC victory, but I’m much more interested in margins within about eight states.
 
lawtig02 said:
Takes like this continue to bug me because they assume the polling companies haven’t adjusted their models since 2016 and 2020. Yes, Kamala will need to win the popular vote by a few percentage points to win the EC. But we truly have no idea how big of a lead she needs in the polls to reflect that popular vote margin. If the polling companies have adjusted correctly, her current lead, if it stays constant, is probably enough. But we won’t know if they adjusted correctly until after the election.
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Chris Cillizza is a bosiding dumbass. Electoral College politics is really pretty simple: win the swing states and defend your turf, win the election. Every other result is pretty much noise. Unless Trump flips some states he lost in 2020, and particularly in the blue wall, he loses again. Theoretically, Harris could win every state Biden won by one vote and lose every state that Trump won by 99% and win the election.

National polls MIGHT give a "sense" of the electorate but little else. The REAL 2024 election takes place in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada.
 
HeelingAg said:
Precisely why I no longer give much attention to national polling. I can assume pollsters made adjustments, but I don’t know. Yes, it’d be nice to see a 7pt lead, and that would likely portend a strong EC victory, but I’m much more interested in margins within about eight states.
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One thing I’m curious about when it comes to polling (and why I also to some Degree downplay polling numbers): I’ve talked to many of my friends about it, and ultimately all of them who get invited to participate in a poll and decline or ignore them are all voting blue, while my red acquaintances are more than willing and even search out the opportunity to talk a poll they are voting for Trump. How do they take this into consideration? I feel like the dem numbers, as good as they are, are probably underrepresented
 
UNCMSinLS said:
Chris Cillizza is a bosiding dumbass. Electoral College politics is really pretty simple: win the swing states and defend your turf, win the election. Every other result is pretty much noise. Unless Trump flips some states he lost in 2020, and particularly in the blue wall, he loses again. Theoretically, Harris could win every state Biden won by one vote and lose every state that Trump won by 99% and win the election.

National polls MIGHT give a "sense" of the electorate but little else. The REAL 2024 election takes place in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada.
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Oh, I know. Barring a major shift in momentum, I actually think the whole election is now down to Pennsylvania, but we’ll see where it goes from here. I’m hoping we got the tidal waves out of the way early.
 
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