2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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Sheetsfaced said:
Ehh I don’t think the Trump campaign is worried about Texas, and moreover aren’t going to divert dollars from swing states to Texas. Because if they need to spend resources in Texas the election outcome is a foregone conclusion so what would be the point?
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recent poll has Cruz up by 3pts...

I don't know if Cruz is worried, but at this point I bet he is a bit concerned :cool:
 
CFordUNC said:
At this point, it’s getting hard to tell whether some pundits are just hopelessly pessimistic by nature, or if they are being recreationally contrarian. There is no objective way to look at the aggregate polling data, the crowd sizes at the Harris rallies, the groundswell of grassroots volunteers, the jaw dropping fundraising numbers, and the overall energy, excitement, and enthusiasm permeating through the Democratic base, and not believe that Harris is currently leading and pulling away. At this point it would take one of the most dramatic reversals fortunes that we have ever seen in modern American politics for Donald Trump to regain the edge. Sure, it’s possible. But it is becoming more and more improbable with each passing day.
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You know I'm more of a pessimist by nature. I agree with the first part of your premise - that Harris is leading and that lead appears to be growing. I do not agree with the second part - that "it would take one of the most dramatic reversals fortunes that we have ever seen in modern American politics for Donald Trump to regain the edge." There's a long time until the election and the Harris momentum will likely not continue all the way until election day. There's any number of things - bad economic news, international tension/conflict, major domestic incident, a bad debate performance by Kamala, etc - that could cause momentum to shift back; or, negative campaigning directed against Kamala and Walz could start to sit in and have more of an effect. Kamala's apparent lead right now is not as big as Clinton's was in the fall of 2016 when everyone thought she had the election sewed up. A "reversal of fortune" from this current posture would not be as dramatic as Trump's win in 2016, or even as dramatic as what we've seen in the last few weeks after Biden was replaced as the candidate. So I can't sign on to this sort of "it's all over barring a miracle" rhetoric. Still a long way to go; everything has gone great for Kamala so far but the election is still going to come down to a handful of states that will likely be fairly close.
 
rodoheel said:
You know I'm more of a pessimist by nature. I agree with the first part of your premise - that Harris is leading and that lead appears to be growing. I do not agree with the second part - that "it would take one of the most dramatic reversals fortunes that we have ever seen in modern American politics for Donald Trump to regain the edge." There's a long time until the election and the Harris momentum will likely not continue all the way until election day. There's any number of things - bad economic news, international tension/conflict, major domestic incident, a bad debate performance by Kamala, etc - that could cause momentum to shift back; or, negative campaigning directed against Kamala and Walz could start to sit in and have more of an effect. Kamala's apparent lead right now is not as big as Clinton's was in the fall of 2016 when everyone thought she had the election sewed up. A "reversal of fortune" from this current posture would not be as dramatic as Trump's win in 2016, or even as dramatic as what we've seen in the last few weeks after Biden was replaced as the candidate. So I can't sign on to this sort of "it's all over barring a miracle" rhetoric. Still a long way to go; everything has gone great for Kamala so far but the election is still going to come down to a handful of states that will likely be fairly close.
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I hear you for sure! I've always really appreciated your views and perspective on this stuff. It's good to have folks to keep me grounded!
 
Really insightful read about how Harris is polling with Latinos. The TL;DR of this piece is that while there is still work to be done in shoring up this important voting bloc, the Democrats are "back in business" as the article says.

"With the entrance of Kamala Harris, we are seeing results that are back in a historically normal range. Relative to Biden, she sees rebounds across Latino subgroups, with the largest among young people. As one swing Latina woman put it in a recent Pennsylvania focus group, Harris is “a light at the end of the tunnel” for many who were torn about their vote choice.

In short: Democrats are back in business.

At the same time, Harris still has more work to do: our polling suggests she is tracking short of Biden’s 2020 support levels among Latinos by a few points. Her consolidation of discontented Latinos has been quick and dramatic, and our research suggests she has room for more movement. But neither side can afford to take these voters for granted over the last 80 days.

The kind of Latino voters who could tip the outcome in not only Arizona and Nevada but also Wisconsin and Pennsylvania do not closely follow election news. They don't have hard partisan identities. They are experts in their lives but not in politics. And if history is any guide, many of them won’t make up their minds — about whether to vote, or who to vote for — until closer to the election."

www.weareequis.us

Memo: A Latino Reset | Equis Research

www.weareequis.us www.weareequis.us
 
aGDevil2k said:
Can we get weed on the ballot in NC? Good grief this state...
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I don't believe NC has a mechanism for getting propositions on the ballot via petition. The legislature has all the power to pass a law or not, or to put a proposition before the electorate or not. If a majority of the legislature opposes something, they are not going to risk a loss by putting it up for a vote by the electorate.
 
Who's willing to lie and say they saw this coming when trump rose from the grave and pumped his fist only ONE MONTH ago?
 
Ii
uncgriff said:
Who's willing to lie and say they saw this coming when trump rose from the grave and pumped his fist only ONE MONTH ago?
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me, me.

When UNCpink was proclaiming that moment as the end of politics, I was saying that it would soon be forgotten and there was a lot more campaign left to be run.

I had hoped for a stronger replacement candidate, but so far, Kamala has exceeded my expectations. To the extent I am surprised, that is the only part.
 
uncgriff said:
Who's willing to lie and say they saw this coming when trump rose from the grave and pumped his fist only ONE MONTH ago?
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I am !

I posted over and over again that Trump would be trailing Harris in the blue wall states by the time she and Walz were nominated in Chicago.

You don't have to believe me ; just go over to the old zzlp board and read them for yourself.
 
heelinhell said:
I am !

I posted over and over again that Trump would be trailing Harris in the blue wall states by the time she and Walz were nominated in Chicago.

You don't have to believe me ; just go over to the old zzlp board and read them for yourself.
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He was shot before Biden resigned though.
 
politicalwire.com

A Big Jump in Enthusiasm

A new Monmouth poll finds a huge shift in enthusiasm in the presidential race."While the number of voters who were at least somewhat enthusiastic about the Trump versus Biden rematch had been increasing throughout the year, it never topped 50%. Now that the contest is Trump versus Harris, voter
politicalwire.com politicalwire.com

monmouth.jpeg

monmouth2.jpeg
 
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