I know, I know. I hear y'all, I really do. You can probably tell that I'm still very new to the whole "being a Democratic voter" thing. Unbridled confidence is probably a leftover remnant as a hallmark of my former Republicanism
Why do you think it is certain that RFK maxes out at 2%? That is possible, for sure. But I don’t think there is any magic about the 2% level. He could outperform that or he could drop to 1%. There have been several third party candidates over the years, with far less name recognition than RFK, to get 3%+
Maybe he gets a second wind, but RFK seems like he’s on his absolute last legs now. No money, no momentum, no buzz. Historically, those candidacies fade at the end. I’d put his over-under at 1.5%, but it’s also extremely possible he ends his campaign in the next couple of weeks, in which case he’ll probably get less than 1%.
That sounds right to me. But nothing makes it certain he’ll max out at 2%. I don’t think too many things are “certain” in this year’s election.
Very true. Just looking at the odds. The swing states are all that really matters, of course, but for national polling, I’m looking at when Kamala hits 51%. That’s the winning number, in my opinion. If RFK outperforms, it may be less than that, but I just don’t see him going anywhere.
also third party candidates attract the both sides are bad people/ there's no point in trying crowd whom are likely to cheer them durign the race, but then look at the chances on election day and say "why bother?" to going out to vote.
I don’t think historical polls are very useful or an indicator of anything in this election.
I agree with you. But on the other hand, I don't believe James Comey is in any governmental position where he can spring an "October Surprise" on Harris.
The always impartial Rasmussen polls.
That’s a July 25, 2024 tweet from Rasmussen. It was right at the time. (But not on the future)The always impartial Rasmussen polls.
It’s the content of the tweet. You don’t need me to point that out to you.
