2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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“… In a hypothetical two-way race between Harris and Trump, Harris holds the same six-point edge over Trump, 53 - 47 percent. Kennedy supporters would back Trump 53- 47 percent in a two-way race, indicating that Kennedy is playing a spoiler in favor of Harris.

… This survey was conducted August 11-15, 2024 using online panels, with a sample of 1,858 likely voters. The survey's margin of error is +/- 2.3%, ensuring a reliable snapshot of public opinion at the time of the study. Inter-nested quotas on gender, income, and race/ethnicity were utilized to guarantee that the data accurately represents the nation's diverse composition. …”
 
nycfan said:


“… In a hypothetical two-way race between Harris and Trump, Harris holds the same six-point edge over Trump, 53 - 47 percent. Kennedy supporters would back Trump 53- 47 percent in a two-way race, indicating that Kennedy is playing a spoiler in favor of Harris.

… This survey was conducted August 11-15, 2024 using online panels, with a sample of 1,858 likely voters. The survey's margin of error is +/- 2.3%, ensuring a reliable snapshot of public opinion at the time of the study. Inter-nested quotas on gender, income, and race/ethnicity were utilized to guarantee that the data accurately represents the nation's diverse composition. …”
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It moved
 
nycfan said:


“… In a hypothetical two-way race between Harris and Trump, Harris holds the same six-point edge over Trump, 53 - 47 percent. Kennedy supporters would back Trump 53- 47 percent in a two-way race, indicating that Kennedy is playing a spoiler in favor of Harris.

… This survey was conducted August 11-15, 2024 using online panels, with a sample of 1,858 likely voters. The survey's margin of error is +/- 2.3%, ensuring a reliable snapshot of public opinion at the time of the study. Inter-nested quotas on gender, income, and race/ethnicity were utilized to guarantee that the data accurately represents the nation's diverse composition. …”
Click to expand...

Chicken My Body Is Ready GIF by giphystudios2021
 
nycfan said:


“… In a hypothetical two-way race between Harris and Trump, Harris holds the same six-point edge over Trump, 53 - 47 percent. Kennedy supporters would back Trump 53- 47 percent in a two-way race, indicating that Kennedy is playing a spoiler in favor of Harris.

… This survey was conducted August 11-15, 2024 using online panels, with a sample of 1,858 likely voters. The survey's margin of error is +/- 2.3%, ensuring a reliable snapshot of public opinion at the time of the study. Inter-nested quotas on gender, income, and race/ethnicity were utilized to guarantee that the data accurately represents the nation's diverse composition. …”
Click to expand...


Home Run Baseball GIF by MLB
 
nycfan said:


“… In a hypothetical two-way race between Harris and Trump, Harris holds the same six-point edge over Trump, 53 - 47 percent. Kennedy supporters would back Trump 53- 47 percent in a two-way race, indicating that Kennedy is playing a spoiler in favor of Harris.

… This survey was conducted August 11-15, 2024 using online panels, with a sample of 1,858 likely voters. The survey's margin of error is +/- 2.3%, ensuring a reliable snapshot of public opinion at the time of the study. Inter-nested quotas on gender, income, and race/ethnicity were utilized to guarantee that the data accurately represents the nation's diverse composition. …”
Click to expand...

I’ve never heard of Outward Intelligence. Are they reputable?
 
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On the face of it, Harris’s small lead in the national polls and trends in swing states don’t look like enough for her to be the favorite in the electoral college. According to our model, Trump continues to lead in a majority of the battleground states — and if you count up the electoral votes and award them to the candidates leading in those states, Trump comes in at 283 and Harris at 255. The first to 270 wins.
The reason Harris is now the favorite is because Harris has closed the gap with Trump in Sun Belt states enough to open a second path to the presidency.
 
Harris is sneaking ahead, but the trend lines are more important than the actual numbers which are now in the margin of error.

RCP leans a little right because of the Rasmussen poll inclusion in the average.

www.realclearpolling.com

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris Polls | RealClearPolling

Explore poll data on the 2024 General Election between Trump and Harris with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
www.realclearpolling.com www.realclearpolling.com

The trend is Kamala's friend but there's a lot of work to do in the swing states. She's made up about 10 points.

www.realclearpolling.com

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris Polls | RealClearPolling

Explore poll data on the 2024 General Election between Trump and Harris with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
www.realclearpolling.com www.realclearpolling.com

Another reason for optimism - enthusiasm for Trump I believe is low and waning even further.

Furthermore, feeling good about the economy: waning inflation, job growth increased GDP, good stock market, reduced O&G futures, upcoming interest rate cuts will be a lagging indicator and more important in October than today.
 
I'm sorry for bringing betting into this but it's amazing the change that has happened in just a short time.

On July 31, Trump was up 21% on Kamala on poly market. She is now up 10%.

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Trump was up big on predictit but is now down 11 cents.

IMG_5269.jpeg


Not a done deal by any means but I'd rather be in Harris' shoes at the moment.
 
altmin said:
Screenshot 2024-08-15 at 9.09.54 PM.png


On the face of it, Harris’s small lead in the national polls and trends in swing states don’t look like enough for her to be the favorite in the electoral college. According to our model, Trump continues to lead in a majority of the battleground states — and if you count up the electoral votes and award them to the candidates leading in those states, Trump comes in at 283 and Harris at 255. The first to 270 wins.
The reason Harris is now the favorite is because Harris has closed the gap with Trump in Sun Belt states enough to open a second path to the presidency.
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I wonder what data is being included in the averages. Biden data before he dropped out? Because this conflicts with most of the polling data from the past few weeks.
 
quakerdevil said:
I wonder what data is being included in the averages. Biden data before he dropped out? Because this conflicts with most of the polling data from the past few weeks.
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Yeah it stuck out to me as an outlier, which itself seemed to make it news.
 
Yeah something seems wonky about what they were doing. That doesnt line up with any other site over the last 2 weeks.
 
Rock said:
I'm sorry for bringing betting into this but it's amazing the change that has happened in just a short time.

On July 31, Trump was up 21% on Kamala on poly market. She is now up 10%.

IMG_5262.jpeg


Trump was up big on predictit but is now down 11 cents.

IMG_5269.jpeg


Not a done deal by any means but I'd rather be in Harris' shoes at the moment.
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Harris is up 9 on Stossel. No small feat.

electionbettingodds.com

Election Betting Odds

Live betting odds on the 2024 presidential election, and more! Who will win? Biden, Trump, Harris, DeSantis?...
electionbettingodds.com
 
Mulberry Heel said:
Agreed. Democrats need to run scared all the way to election day. Any Democrat who feels cocky or confident about the election outcome after 2016 (and near defeat in 2020) needs to have their head examined, imo.
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I remember 1990…..when the Jesse Helms “Hands” ad hit. I don’t remember if it hit on Thursday or Friday…….it hit at the last possible time to place a new political ad in North Carolina. I don’t think this was a law; it was an agreement with the TV and radio stations.

Up to that moment, we knew we were behind and that we stood a shot…..a small shot; but, a shot at winning.

That ad was a nuclear bomb. It hit and we knew we were dead.

I was in Harvey Gantt’s campaign manager’s office in the state Democratic Headquarters on Hillsborough Street when that ad hit.

Yeah, the Gantt Campaign was “officially” headquartered in Charlotte); the real organizers and organization were in Raleigh. Mel Watt was a brilliant politician; he learned he couldn’t run a statewide senate campaign……especially from Charlotte……until one experiences it, one has little-to-no idea how many state employees will volunteer for campaigns….they’re in Raleigh, not Charlotte.

On a statewide campaign, one doesn’t realize how critical Durham is for Democrats.

I’d worked on previous campaigns and I’m good at organizing volunteers. I’d been called to help organize volunteers. I stepped away from my business to do so for 6+ weeks.

We had a massive GOTV effort going…..huge enthusiasm…..then the “Hands” ad hit.
 
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