2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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Harris is sneaking ahead, but the trend lines are more important than the actual numbers which are now in the margin of error.

RCP leans a little right because of the Rasmussen poll inclusion in the average.

www.realclearpolling.com

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The trend is Kamala's friend but there's a lot of work to do in the swing states. She's made up about 10 points.

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2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris Polls | RealClearPolling

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Another reason for optimism - enthusiasm for Trump I believe is low and waning even further.

Furthermore, feeling good about the economy: waning inflation, job growth increased GDP, good stock market, reduced O&G futures, upcoming interest rate cuts will be a lagging indicator and more important in October than today.
 
I'm sorry for bringing betting into this but it's amazing the change that has happened in just a short time.

On July 31, Trump was up 21% on Kamala on poly market. She is now up 10%.

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Trump was up big on predictit but is now down 11 cents.

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Not a done deal by any means but I'd rather be in Harris' shoes at the moment.
 
altmin said:
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On the face of it, Harris’s small lead in the national polls and trends in swing states don’t look like enough for her to be the favorite in the electoral college. According to our model, Trump continues to lead in a majority of the battleground states — and if you count up the electoral votes and award them to the candidates leading in those states, Trump comes in at 283 and Harris at 255. The first to 270 wins.
The reason Harris is now the favorite is because Harris has closed the gap with Trump in Sun Belt states enough to open a second path to the presidency.
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I wonder what data is being included in the averages. Biden data before he dropped out? Because this conflicts with most of the polling data from the past few weeks.
 
quakerdevil said:
I wonder what data is being included in the averages. Biden data before he dropped out? Because this conflicts with most of the polling data from the past few weeks.
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Yeah it stuck out to me as an outlier, which itself seemed to make it news.
 
Yeah something seems wonky about what they were doing. That doesnt line up with any other site over the last 2 weeks.
 
Rock said:
I'm sorry for bringing betting into this but it's amazing the change that has happened in just a short time.

On July 31, Trump was up 21% on Kamala on poly market. She is now up 10%.

IMG_5262.jpeg


Trump was up big on predictit but is now down 11 cents.

IMG_5269.jpeg


Not a done deal by any means but I'd rather be in Harris' shoes at the moment.
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Harris is up 9 on Stossel. No small feat.

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Mulberry Heel said:
Agreed. Democrats need to run scared all the way to election day. Any Democrat who feels cocky or confident about the election outcome after 2016 (and near defeat in 2020) needs to have their head examined, imo.
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I remember 1990…..when the Jesse Helms “Hands” ad hit. I don’t remember if it hit on Thursday or Friday…….it hit at the last possible time to place a new political ad in North Carolina. I don’t think this was a law; it was an agreement with the TV and radio stations.

Up to that moment, we knew we were behind and that we stood a shot…..a small shot; but, a shot at winning.

That ad was a nuclear bomb. It hit and we knew we were dead.

I was in Harvey Gantt’s campaign manager’s office in the state Democratic Headquarters on Hillsborough Street when that ad hit.

Yeah, the Gantt Campaign was “officially” headquartered in Charlotte); the real organizers and organization were in Raleigh. Mel Watt was a brilliant politician; he learned he couldn’t run a statewide senate campaign……especially from Charlotte……until one experiences it, one has little-to-no idea how many state employees will volunteer for campaigns….they’re in Raleigh, not Charlotte.

On a statewide campaign, one doesn’t realize how critical Durham is for Democrats.

I’d worked on previous campaigns and I’m good at organizing volunteers. I’d been called to help organize volunteers. I stepped away from my business to do so for 6+ weeks.

We had a massive GOTV effort going…..huge enthusiasm…..then the “Hands” ad hit.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
Agreed. Democrats need to run scared all the way to election day. Any Democrat who feels cocky or confident about the election outcome after 2016 (and near defeat in 2020) needs to have their head examined, imo.
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On one hand, this is absolutely correct.

On the other hand, confidence and enthusiasm is contagious. Democrats should be celebrating what’s happening right now. It’s like we’ve been in a massive drought for years and the forecasters are finally calling for a period of life-giving rain. It’s not here yet, but we can feel incredibly optimistic about what’s over the horizon. I’m convinced Americans are sick and tired of MAGA’s relentless negativity. Dems can finally be the party of joy and hopeful energy. That’s one of the main things that draws undecided people in.
 
lawtig02 said:
On one hand, this is absolutely correct.

On the other hand, confidence and enthusiasm is contagious. Democrats should be celebrating what’s happening right now. It’s like we’ve been in a massive drought for years and the forecasters are finally calling for a period of life-giving rain. It’s not here yet, but we can feel incredibly optimistic about what’s over the horizon. I’m convinced Americans are sick and tired of MAGA’s relentless negativity. Dems can finally be the party of joy and hopeful energy. That’s one of the main things that draws undecided people in.
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I hope you are correct.

A battery of “commies and socialists” often smothers the hopeful Democratic message you just typed.
 
Zoo_View said:
I hope you are correct.

A battery of “commies and socialists” often smothers the hopeful Democratic message you just typed.
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I would agree EXCEPT it's the same message he's been doing for 9 years. Any message gets old after that time, and people tune it out. That's the problem right now for the GOP. They have nothing new. So it is boring and doesn't resonate.
 
aGDevil2k said:
I would agree EXCEPT it's the same message he's been doing for 9 years. Any message gets old after that time, and people tune it out. That's the problem right now for the GOP. They have nothing new. So it is boring and doesn't resonate.
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and pointing out that they’re weird and boring just irks trump to the point of further wailing and self destruction
 
lawtig02 said:
Dems can finally be the party of joy and hopeful energy. That’s one of the main things that draws undecided people in.
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^100% this. The dour, negative presidential candidate typically loses. The positive, upbeat candidate traditionally wins. Trump was once the happy warrior in 2016, in contrast to Clinton. He's been completely devoid of joy the last two election cycles.
 
UNCMSinLS said:
^100% this. The dour, negative presidential candidate typically loses. The positive, upbeat candidate traditionally wins. Trump was once the happy warrior in 2016, in contrast to Clinton. He's been completely devoid of joy the last two election cycles.
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Trump was pretty negative, dour, and joyless back in 2016. The Republican National Convention that year was full-on fire and brimstone.
 
aGDevil2k said:
I would agree EXCEPT it's the same message he's been doing for 9 years. Any message gets old after that time, and people tune it out. That's the problem right now for the GOP. They have nothing new. So it is boring and doesn't resonate.
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Jesse Helms repeated that Jim Hunt - Jim effing Hunt - was too liberal for North Carolina for 15-18 months on end……..it worked.

It’s a long way from won.
 
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