2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[Calheel]

Take out that 8% and Kamala’s around 50%. RFK will almost certainly drop to 2% max, so if Kamala can get most of that, she would win. Just a moment in time, of course.

Why do you think it is certain that RFK maxes out at 2%? That is possible, for sure. But I don’t think there is any magic about the 2% level. He could outperform that or he could drop to 1%. There have been several third party candidates over the years, with far less name recognition than RFK, to get 3%+

 

[lawtig02]

Why do you think it is certain that RFK maxes out at 2%? That is possible, for sure. But I don’t think there is any magic about the 2% level. He could outperform that or he could drop to 1%. There have been several third party candidates over the years, with far less name recognition than RFK, to get 3%+

Maybe he gets a second wind, but RFK seems like he’s on his absolute last legs now. No money, no momentum, no buzz. Historically, those candidacies fade at the end. I’d put his over-under at 1.5%, but it’s also extremely possible he ends his campaign in the next couple of weeks, in which case he’ll probably get less than 1%.

 

[Calheel]

Maybe he gets a second wind, but RFK seems like he’s on his absolute last legs now. No money, no momentum, no buzz. Historically, those candidacies fade at the end. I’d put his over-under at 1.5%, but it’s also extremely possible he ends his campaign in the next couple of weeks, in which case he’ll probably get less than 1%.

That sounds right to me. But nothing makes it certain he’ll max out at 2%. I don’t think too many things are “certain” in this year’s election.

 

[lawtig02]

That sounds right to me. But nothing makes it certain he’ll max out at 2%. I don’t think too many things are “certain” in this year’s election.

Very true. Just looking at the odds. The swing states are all that really matters, of course, but for national polling, I’m looking at when Kamala hits 51%. That’s the winning number, in my opinion. If RFK outperforms, it may be less than that, but I just don’t see him going anywhere.

 

[altmin]

Maybe he gets a second wind, but RFK seems like he’s on his absolute last legs now. No money, no momentum, no buzz. Historically, those candidacies fade at the end. I’d put his over-under at 1.5%, but it’s also extremely possible he ends his campaign in the next couple of weeks, in which case he’ll probably get less than 1%.

also third party candidates attract the both sides are bad people/ there's no point in trying crowd whom are likely to cheer them durign the race, but then look at the chances on election day and say "why bother?" to going out to vote.

 

[Milk and Cookies]

The ruling about his NY residency could be a backbreaker. "Renting" a room in a friend's house that you never step foot in while claiming that's your permanent residence is a bold strategy Cotton.

 

[Bigs23]

Those examples are fine but not on my point of the same boring message not landing 9 years later. That's the point. Trump's same, tired stuff is boring to people outside of the cult.


Hell Clinton was going to win before Comey fucked her. I am a Duke football fan...I get blowing leads late.

I don’t think historical polls are very useful or an indicator of anything in this election.

 

[05C40]

Agreed. Democrats need to run scared all the way to election day. Any Democrat who feels cocky or confident about the election outcome after 2016 (and near defeat in 2020) needs to have their head examined, imo.

I agree with you. But on the other hand, I don't believe James Comey is in any governmental position where he can spring an "October Surprise" on Harris.

 

[nycfan]

Rasmussen Alert:

 

[lawtig02]

Rasmussen Alert:

This doesn’t bother me at all. Rasmussen only gives access to its cross tabs to subscribers, but their methodology has lost credibility recently. But polls like this pull the average down, which means the real numbers are probably a little better for Kamala than the averages. I’d much rather have an error in that direction than the other.

 

[Rock]

 

[CallMeTyler]

Rasmussen Alert:

The always impartial Rasmussen polls.

 

[theel4life]

The always impartial Rasmussen polls.

 

[Calheel]

The always impartial Rasmussen polls.

That’s a July 25, 2024 tweet from Rasmussen. It was right at the time. (But not on the future)

 

[CallMeTyler]

That’s a July 25, 2024 tweet from Rasmussen. It was right at the time. (But not on the future)

It’s the content of the tweet. You don’t need me to point that out to you.

 

[Mulberry Heel]

That tweet just screams "we're reliable, trustworthy and objective!"

 

[Mulberry Heel]

To be honest, I'm not at all sure that any supposedly "undecided" groups are truly undecided. Trump has been around for so long that a voter would pretty much have to be living in a cave without internet or other sources of information since 2016 not to have a strong opinion on the guy one way or another. And we know that the TV news networks have already been fooled by some "focus groups" that are supposedly undecided, like the group of "undecided" suburban mothers (in 2016, I believe) that CNN featured multiple times who turned out to all be active members of a local Republican women for Trump organization.

 

[aGDevil2k]

This doesn’t bother me at all. Rasmussen only gives access to its cross tabs to subscribers, but their methodology has lost credibility recently. But polls like this pull the average down, which means the real numbers are probably a little better for Kamala than the averages. I’d much rather have an error in that direction than the other.

Yeah they went all in on the bias several years ago. It was always right leaning and then they took off the Scooby mask and revealed Bannon underneath

 

[Calheel]

It’s the content of the tweet. You don’t need me to point that out to you.

Yeah, I get that using "snot" in a tweet suggests a certain lack of professionalism. I just thought it was important to clarify that Rasmussen wasn't lying about the betting markets on top of being unprofessional.

 

[CallMeTyler]

Yeah, I get that using "snot" in a tweet suggests a certain lack of professionalism. I just thought it was important to clarify that Rasmussen wasn't lying about the betting markets on top of being unprofessional.

Nobody should care about Rasmussen polls as their credibility has long since been dismissed. 538 no longer includes them in the aggregate because of their unwillingness to maintain strict standards in methodology and objectivity.

Feel free to read for yourself: https://archive.ph/BNR01