KishiKaisei
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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden
- Thread starter nycfan
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SmilingJack
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don't blame this Gen-xer. At first I was all..."whatever" then "pshhh" then I procrastinated and voted sliding in at the last moment for the win!
aGDevil2k
Inconceivable Member
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Bouzy remains very optimistic.. Said in his pod today that the ground game differences are insane and the weed vote in Florida could be huge
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Isn’t Bouzy like the king of Hopium?
ETA: yeah rolling Florida to blue … no.
ETA: yeah rolling Florida to blue … no.
Bigs23
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He’s the very, very best case scenario guy.
aGDevil2k
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He was pretty good in both 2020 and 2022 and in some of the specials. He had a couple of misses, but did better than like Nate Silver.
Weirdly, though, he said that he was being conservative here. Said he's cautious on some of the stuff he's seeing, and he doesn't understand the black male vote situation right now, fully.
Yup. And as I’ve pointed out before, I don’t see Cannabis as helping the democrats the way it might have in the 90s or 00s.
There is a huge MAGA overlap with weed. Having that issue on the ballot in Fla may actually help Trump. It is not remotely like the abortion issue.
aGDevil2k
Inconceivable Member
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Florida has both on the ballot, though. Where he was saying weed may help is that it brings out the youth vote.
Especially the youth male. Especially the youth male gamer vote. Which is not a good demo for Harris.
He thought Dems were going to take the House. That is like going over on the final showdown on Price is Right.
Nate was basically at 227 Republicans, give or take 8-9 either way. But he was at 84% that Republicans would hold on to the House. He was more right than Bouzy.
Bouzy is the Democratic equivalent of Rasmussen.
aGDevil2k
Inconceivable Member
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I 100% agree Bouzy is way in the blue clouds. But man Nate was all red waving. There's a reason he got booted from his own damn company, and he's struggling big time to maintain credibility. But there are 222 GOP house members - Bouzy was off 3. Nate was off 4, but as always he gives this massive hedge with stat range.
aGDevil2k
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According to....?
I do NOT see Florida as a dark blue call. But, I think there's a chance for a tossup/slightly lean blue if momentum continues. Same deal with Texas. Rick Scott and Ted Cruz better start sweating.
Abortion was, is, and will continue to be THE issue driving elections. Dems finally have a communicator to drive that issue home in Harris.
Nate was not big time red waving. Go read 538 archives from 2022
2022 House Forecast
Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 House elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight
2022 Senate Election Forecast
Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 Senate elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight
He thought the senate would go 50.8/49.2 to Republicans. It ended 50/50.
He thought House would be roughly 227/208, with a significant standard deviation in both directions. It ended 222/213.
Disney let Nate go in 2023 as part of a huge cost cutting process across all of its media divisions in 2023. I've seen no evidence that the move had anything to do with political prognostication ability or political views.
I agree with that, although I think it remains to be determined whether an abortion prop on the ballot makes a material outcome in the presidential results vs. no prop on the ballot. Intuition says it should make a difference but I don't think we've seen any hard science on that one way or the other.
But I am confident that cannabis props will not be a helpful issue for Harris. I see those props as best a neutral issue.