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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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  • Politics 
LosPollosHermanos said:
Some of you might want to think about what happened in 2016 when the media wasn't making the race look close.
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I don’t think the Harris campaign is being quite so indifferent with her approach to campaigning and reaching voters. I think we can all admit in hindsight that Hillary took far too much for granted.
 
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CallMeTyler said:
This is what Dems are in contention with.

i don’t think the Harris campaign is being quite so indifferent with her approach to campaigning and reaching voters. I think we can all admit in hindsight that Hillary took far too much for granted.
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Hillary relied on the polls showing her up significantly in the blue wall states, and there was no way she could anticipate Jim Comey dropping a turd in the punch bowl...

Comey + Russia = a Trump Electoral College victory despite losing the popular vote by 3 million votes
 

New AARP Maryland Poll: Alsobrooks Tied with Hogan in Senate Contest

Annapolis, Maryland—Today, AARP Maryland released a 2024 statewide election survey, revealing that candidates for president, U.S. Senate, and state races should pay close attention to Marylanders ages 50 and older. Maryland residents ages 50 and older make up an outsized portion of the...
press.aarp.org

“Today, AARP Maryland released a 2024 statewide election survey revealing that candidates for president, U.S. Senate, and state races should pay close attention to Marylanders ages 50 and older, who make up an outsized portion of the electorate. In the 2020 elections, older voters accounted for 53% of all Maryland voters and in the 2022 mid-terms, they made up 62% of the state’s voters. Eighty-seven percent of voters ages 50 and older say they are “extremely motivated” to cast a ballot in November, compared with 70% of voters ages 18-49 saying the same.

In the race for the open U.S. Senate seat, former Governor Larry Hogan (R) and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) are tied, 46% - 46%. The race is close among voters 50 and older as well, with Hogan leading Alsobrooks by two points, 47% - 45%. Two key demographics, women voters 50 and older and caregivers 50 and older, are narrowly divided, with Alsobrooks leading by 4 points among older women and by 1 point with caregivers.”
 
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A new poll from the Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab ( PolCom Lab ) and Mainstreet Research USA reveals significant shifts in the 2024 U.S. presidential race, underscoring deep gender and racial divides among voters across the nation. Watch the video analysis of this report at faupolling.com.

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead over former U.S. President Donald Trump nationally, with 47% of voters supporting her compared to Trump’s 43%. Among likely voters, Harris leads 49% to 45%. She has gained strong support among women, with 53% backing her, while 45% of men favor her. Trump’s base remains predominantly male, with 47% support from men, compared to 41% from women.

Harris also holds substantial advantages among Black voters (73%), Hispanic voters (51%), and white college-educated voters (57%). Trump, however, continues to command strong support among white voters without a college degree, with 59% favoring him.…”

www.fau.edu

FAU/Mainstreet USA Poll: Harris Gains Momentum in Wake of DNC

A new poll from the Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab ( PolCom Lab ) and Mainstreet Research USA reveals significant shifts in the 2024 U.S. presidential race.
www.fau.edu www.fau.edu
 
The poll surveyed 929 registered U.S. voters from Aug. 23 to 25, using a combination of Interactive Voice Response and online panel methods. Conducted in both English and Spanish, the survey applied weights for gender, race, education and past vote
 
It's definitely interesting that there appears to be a decently-sized chasm between the current "vibes"/many of the fundamentals/intangibles, and the current polling data. Will be interesting to see if Harris can increase her national polling lead between now and when early voting starts in a few weeks. Feels to me like it needs to be 6-7 points to go into Election Day feeling great about her electoral chances. Anything less than that can and should still be a cause for optimism, but much more guarded optimism.
 
CFordUNC said:
It's definitely interesting that there appears to be a decently-sized chasm between the current "vibes"/many of the fundamentals/intangibles, and the current polling data. Will be interesting to see if Harris can increase her national polling lead between now and when early voting starts in a few weeks. Feels to me like it needs to be 6-7 points to go into Election Day feeling great about her electoral chances. Anything less than that can and should still be a cause for optimism, but much more guarded optimism.
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You’re not wrong, but remember the pollsters and the models continually adjust for past results. The necessary differential may not be as high this year as it was in 2020 or 2016.
 
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