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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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  • Politics 
“
A new poll from the Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab ( PolCom Lab ) and Mainstreet Research USA reveals significant shifts in the 2024 U.S. presidential race, underscoring deep gender and racial divides among voters across the nation. Watch the video analysis of this report at faupolling.com.

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead over former U.S. President Donald Trump nationally, with 47% of voters supporting her compared to Trump’s 43%. Among likely voters, Harris leads 49% to 45%. She has gained strong support among women, with 53% backing her, while 45% of men favor her. Trump’s base remains predominantly male, with 47% support from men, compared to 41% from women.

Harris also holds substantial advantages among Black voters (73%), Hispanic voters (51%), and white college-educated voters (57%). Trump, however, continues to command strong support among white voters without a college degree, with 59% favoring him.…”

www.fau.edu

FAU/Mainstreet USA Poll: Harris Gains Momentum in Wake of DNC

A new poll from the Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab ( PolCom Lab ) and Mainstreet Research USA reveals significant shifts in the 2024 U.S. presidential race.
www.fau.edu www.fau.edu
 
The poll surveyed 929 registered U.S. voters from Aug. 23 to 25, using a combination of Interactive Voice Response and online panel methods. Conducted in both English and Spanish, the survey applied weights for gender, race, education and past vote
 
It's definitely interesting that there appears to be a decently-sized chasm between the current "vibes"/many of the fundamentals/intangibles, and the current polling data. Will be interesting to see if Harris can increase her national polling lead between now and when early voting starts in a few weeks. Feels to me like it needs to be 6-7 points to go into Election Day feeling great about her electoral chances. Anything less than that can and should still be a cause for optimism, but much more guarded optimism.
 
CFordUNC said:
It's definitely interesting that there appears to be a decently-sized chasm between the current "vibes"/many of the fundamentals/intangibles, and the current polling data. Will be interesting to see if Harris can increase her national polling lead between now and when early voting starts in a few weeks. Feels to me like it needs to be 6-7 points to go into Election Day feeling great about her electoral chances. Anything less than that can and should still be a cause for optimism, but much more guarded optimism.
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You’re not wrong, but remember the pollsters and the models continually adjust for past results. The necessary differential may not be as high this year as it was in 2020 or 2016.
 
CFordUNC said:
It's definitely interesting that there appears to be a decently-sized chasm between the current "vibes"/many of the fundamentals/intangibles, and the current polling data. Will be interesting to see if Harris can increase her national polling lead between now and when early voting starts in a few weeks. Feels to me like it needs to be 6-7 points to go into Election Day feeling great about her electoral chances. Anything less than that can and should still be a cause for optimism, but much more guarded optimism.
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Man, I just can't see her polling lead being 6-7 points at that point. So I think we're in for a nail-biting election day (and likely not knowing the outcome for certain that night) no matter what.
 
rodoheel said:
Man, I just can't see her polling lead being 6-7 points at that point. So I think we're in for a nail-biting election day (and likely not knowing the outcome for certain that night) no matter what.
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I can. I can see Trump support crashing, especially given his deteriorating mental condition.
 
nycfan said:

New AARP Maryland Poll: Alsobrooks Tied with Hogan in Senate Contest

Annapolis, Maryland—Today, AARP Maryland released a 2024 statewide election survey, revealing that candidates for president, U.S. Senate, and state races should pay close attention to Marylanders ages 50 and older. Maryland residents ages 50 and older make up an outsized portion of the...
press.aarp.org

“Today, AARP Maryland released a 2024 statewide election survey revealing that candidates for president, U.S. Senate, and state races should pay close attention to Marylanders ages 50 and older, who make up an outsized portion of the electorate. In the 2020 elections, older voters accounted for 53% of all Maryland voters and in the 2022 mid-terms, they made up 62% of the state’s voters. Eighty-seven percent of voters ages 50 and older say they are “extremely motivated” to cast a ballot in November, compared with 70% of voters ages 18-49 saying the same.

In the race for the open U.S. Senate seat, former Governor Larry Hogan (R) and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) are tied, 46% - 46%. The race is close among voters 50 and older as well, with Hogan leading Alsobrooks by two points, 47% - 45%. Two key demographics, women voters 50 and older and caregivers 50 and older, are narrowly divided, with Alsobrooks leading by 4 points among older women and by 1 point with caregivers.”
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If we lose this Senate race, then fuck Maryland forever. I don't care how popular Larry Hogan is. His main function in the Senate will be to vote for the GOP Majority Leader. We will never get a Supreme Court appointment through without a Dem majority. I will refuse to spend any money in Maryland.
 
superrific said:
If we lose this Senate race, then fuck Maryland forever. I don't care how popular Larry Hogan is. His main function in the Senate will be to vote for the GOP Majority Leader. We will never get a Supreme Court appointment through without a Dem majority. I will refuse to spend any money in Maryland.
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I'm with you. If the Senate would end up in a comfortable Dem majority, I'd briefly consider Hogan but even then, I'd vote against him just for the future calculus of him affecting things when it's a tighter margin.

Alsobrooks has my vote regardless but I think things will turn around the closer we get to Election Day and the true implications start to be realized by the Maryland electorate about control of the Senate, especially if it looks likely the Presidency and House will be back in Dems hands.
 
superrific said:
I can. I can see Trump support crashing, especially given his deteriorating mental condition.
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Want to make a friendly (no stakes) wage on it? I don't think there's any realistic way Kamala will have a 6-7 point national polling lead. There have been dozens of things that should have made Trump "crash" between 2015 and now, and none have stuck. I just find it hard to believe there will be a significant move away from him over the next 2+ months.
 
Icky Mettle said:
My wife was 8-months pregnant with our second child at the time. She went to bed before all the results were in but things weren’t looking good, and we were both in shock. I finally went up to bed when it became clear that Trump was going to win. My wife asked me if things had gotten any better. I told her Trump won. Being 8-months pregnant, she was very emotional. She got really upset, and was trying get me to tell her that everything was going to be alright. I was unable to do it.

The next day, I left the house to go to work and it felt like the apocalypse had hit. The city was eerily quiet. I went to get my flu shot that day, and the woman who gave me the shot was like, “What the hell happened? I didn’t see that see that coming.”
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I remember election night 2016 pretty well - my wife and I were wearing matching Bill Clinton first dude t shirts and we went out to pick up groceries and everyone we encountered was in high spirits and initially the numbers were looking good but then as more results came in Hillary was underperforming in key states and the news just kept getting worse
 
rodoheel said:
Want to make a friendly (no stakes) wage on it? I don't think there's any realistic way Kamala will have a 6-7 point national polling lead. There have been dozens of things that should have made Trump "crash" between 2015 and now, and none have stuck. I just find it hard to believe there will be a significant move away from him over the next 2+ months.
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Sadly,trump has a pretty high floor.
 
My 2016 story…I was working/living in the DC area when I was still in the USAF, but was on a work trip checking on a program I was in charge of out of Colorado Springs.

Being active duty, politics wasn’t something we really talked about around the workplace, but the morning after a guy who worked for me who was generally one of the nicest & most positive guys you’d even meet came in just looking defeated. Said it was the first time he’d ever been embarrassed to be American.
 
2016 was so depressing. I was still a resident at UVA and had my POTUS tee shirt with the O being a female symbol. Went to a brewery early on when the early returns were good for Hillary (the dreaded tweets about florida turnout being good). went to a friends house to celebrate and it just got more and more depressing. Had to go in and do refugee clinic the next day and i’ve never seen a more somber place
 
mpaer said:
I was counting on 45%. I am likely wrong.
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  • 2016 - Trump 46.1%, Hillary 48.2%, 3rd Party 5.7%, Turnout - 60.1%
  • 2020 - Trump 46.8%, Biden 51.3%, 3rd Party 1.9%, Turnout 66.6%
Turnout in 2012 was 58.6%; in 2008, it was 61.6%.

The absolute floor for 3rd Party is probably 1.5%.

Trump’s floor is 46.0%.

The Democrat’s floor is likely 47.5-48.0%. A black female might have a lower floor than Hillary’s 48.2%.

The Democrat’s ceiling is likely Obama 2012 (2008 Obama brought out the Tea Party and Trumplicans - that’s lowered the Democrat’s ceiling).
 
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