2024 Political Polls

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mpaer said:
I was counting on 45%. I am likely wrong.
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  • 2016 - Trump 46.1%, Hillary 48.2%, 3rd Party 5.7%, Turnout - 60.1%
  • 2020 - Trump 46.8%, Biden 51.3%, 3rd Party 1.9%, Turnout 66.6%
Turnout in 2012 was 58.6%; in 2008, it was 61.6%.

The absolute floor for 3rd Party is probably 1.5%.

Trump’s floor is 46.0%.

The Democrat’s floor is likely 47.5-48.0%. A black female might have a lower floor than Hillary’s 48.2%.

The Democrat’s ceiling is likely Obama 2012 (2008 Obama brought out the Tea Party and Trumplicans - that’s lowered the Democrat’s ceiling).
 
My 2016 story is that growing up my family always had blank maps of the US and would color in the states read and blue. It was such a wholesome tradition. In the run up to 2016 I was hesitant to do that because the election was so consequential that it somehow didn’t feel right. But the night of the polls were so encouraging I decided to do it anyway. At roughly 9:45pm I texted my stepdad, and I quote, “fucking Florida”. I spent the rest of the night in shock.
 
superrific said:
If we lose this Senate race, then fuck Maryland forever. I don't care how popular Larry Hogan is. His main function in the Senate will be to vote for the GOP Majority Leader. We will never get a Supreme Court appointment through without a Dem majority. I will refuse to spend any money in Maryland.
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I feel the same about Roy Cooper but in reverse. Great governor but I couldn’t support him for US Senate in the future, for the reasons you stated.

Of course, I would never lose sleep over the results of an election, or boycott spending my money in a state because of it. But I get where you’re coming from about Hogan.
 
Hogan could be different if the nominee is solid.

Collins, Romney & Murkowski all voted to confirm Brown-Jackson and I’d expect Hogan to be that type of Senator.
 
Raijin23 said:
I'm with you. If the Senate would end up in a comfortable Dem majority, I'd briefly consider Hogan but even then, I'd vote against him just for the future calculus of him affecting things when it's a tighter margin.

Alsobrooks has my vote regardless but I think things will turn around the closer we get to Election Day and the true implications start to be realized by the Maryland electorate about control of the Senate, especially if it looks likely the Presidency and House will be back in Dems hands.
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Is she running ads pointing out that no matter what Hogan says, if he's elected he'll just be another GOP shill for Trump and Trumpism? Because if not she really needs to start to running those kinds of ads ASAP.
 
GoHeelsweeeehoooo said:
I remember election night 2016 pretty well - my wife and I were wearing matching Bill Clinton first dude t shirts and we went out to pick up groceries and everyone we encountered was in high spirits and initially the numbers were looking good but then as more results came in Hillary was underperforming in key states and the news just kept getting worse
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Similar story for both me and my wife. She's Ethiopian and not that familiar with the whole process, so I was explaining how a good amount of states look like the Republican is "winning" until the major population centers report in.

When the numbers started to look underwhelming in Detroit, Philly and other places, I had to confirm her pessimistic view going into the election that Trump was going to be president.

Worse that they were going to keep the House and gain the Senate, that was the cherry on top of the shit sundae for me, ugh.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
Is she running ads pointing out that no matter what Hogan says, if he's elected he'll just be another GOP shill for Trump and Trumpism? Because if not she really needs to start to running those kinds of ads ASAP.
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Hard to say, I don't have cable and pay for YouTube without advertisements. When I've seen her ads while at the gym, they've been mostly about her. But I'm sure she'll start the attack ads soon.

The only thing that worries me is Hogan does have legit bipartisan chops and his ads are effective in pointing that out.
 
Raijin23 said:
Hard to say, I don't have cable and pay for YouTube without advertisements. When I've seen her ads while at the gym, they've been mostly about her. But I'm sure she'll start the attack ads soon.

The only thing that worries me is Hogan does have legit bipartisan chops and his ads are effective in pointing that out.
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Alsobrooks needs to also emphasize that Hogan could decide control of the chamber if he wins in November.
 
The reason Hogan has been popular in a blue state is because he hasn’t been a MAGA stooge.

While I wouldn’t expect him to abandon his roots, he’d be a sure one term Senator if he went full MAGA while representing Maryland.
 
Paine said:
Alsobrooks needs to also emphasize that Hogan could decide control of the chamber if he wins in November.
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Hogan having control of the chamber would be a great thing for a lot of people in Maryland. Similar to the power Manchin held a couple years ago.
 
CharmCityTiger said:
I think the entire Hogan argument is much ado about nothing. We're a proudly reliably blue state and there is no way in a presidential election year we're going to send a Republican to the senate. Mark it down: Hogan loses this one by about 8 points.
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You're a lot more confident than I.
I know Hogan isn't really looked at as your normal republican political person, he's highly regarded as a man that has been able to reach across the aisle to accomplish so much for the state of Maryland and he has that respect from the left.
Last I saw, the race was about dead even between he and Ms. Alsobrooks. . .
8 points ? I don't think so . .
Jus' saying.
 
Calheel said:
2020 had the flips of GA and AZ. Could NC be the 2024 flip?

Every election they claim NC is in play, and every election Lucy pulls away the football. 2008 is the only election democrats have won in NC this millennium. I'm keeping NC in the "I'll believe it when I see it category."
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Yep. Usually Democrats come close in NC, but no cigar. Nevada has been the same for Republicans - they've come very close to winning several times but never seem to get over the hump.
 
superrific said:
Central Limit Theorem doesn't give a fuck about state or national. 400 voters will always have a considerable margin for error because math.
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www.surveymonkey.com

Margin of Error Calculator (With Formula And Examples)

Calculate your margin of error easily online with our calculator or learn how to find it yourself with out guide.
www.surveymonkey.com www.surveymonkey.com

400 responses in a state with roughly 5,000,000 votes cast will have a MOE of about 5%.
ETA: Please correct me or add to my knowledge if I'm wrong here.
 
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