2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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BillOfRights said:
While polling has gotten more difficult, the hardest part is modeling the electorate. This gives Harris supporters a glimmer of hope (6 minute interview):

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I’d like to see the raw numbers, rather than a percentage increase. Young black women account for a small percentage of the US population.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
Is she running ads pointing out that no matter what Hogan says, if he's elected he'll just be another GOP shill for Trump and Trumpism? Because if not she really needs to start to running those kinds of ads ASAP.
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At BEST, Hogan is Susan Collins.

Which means when the Trumplicans NEED his vote, he votes Trumplican.

When the Trumplicans don’t need his vote, they’ll let him vote liberal to boost his “moderate” credentials.

When a Brett Kavanaugh needs a vote, Hogan will toe the Susan Collins-line and vote Trumplican.
 
1moretimeagain said:
I’d like to see the raw numbers, rather than a percentage increase. Young black women account for a small percentage of the US population.
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Of course raw numbers are great and so is knowing which 13 states these numbers came from. They haven’t released that to my knowledge.

But the point should not be diminished here. Relative increases over 2020 among newly registered:

All republicans - 7.8%
Men - 17.1%
Women - 37.6%
All Dems - 51.2%
All Hispanic - 63.2%
18-29 - 73.4%
Hispanic women - 78.3%
18-29 women - 83.7%
All black - 85.8%
Black women - 98.4%
18-29 Hispanic women - 149.7%
18-29 black women - 175.8%

These are not indexes where 100 is a baseline for 2020. These are *increases* vs 2020. These numbers are staggering.

And late in the interview Bonier mentions the KS Referendum after the Dobbs leak/decision which spiked registration massively and led to a resounding pro-choice win. In ruby red KANSAS. And this is one example of several similar.

When Bonier speaks, pay attention. His data is capturing what the polls are missing.

I’m telling you, the way the reproductive rights momentum has snowballed with Kamala’s candidacy… this thing ain’t gonna be close.
 
Milk and Cookies said:
There are 51% more registered Dems now vs. 2020? Really?
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Not nationwide. In the 13 states they have new registration data for.

They will eventually have the rest of the states’ data but they compiled the numbers for what they had in-house and ran with it since the numbers were eye popping.

Or, it’s possible they have more states already but they curated the list to be eye popping. But this firm doesn’t usually operate that way.
 
RockyMtnHoo said:
The reason Hogan has been popular in a blue state is because he hasn’t been a MAGA stooge.

While I wouldn’t expect him to abandon his roots, he’d be a sure one term Senator if he went full MAGA while representing Maryland.
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He’ll get primaried if he doesn’t go Ted Cruz.

Regardless of that, the BEST CASE SCENARIO is he’s Susan Collins.

We don’t need another Susan Collins.
 
BillyL said:
You're a lot more confident than I.
I know Hogan isn't really looked at as your normal republican political person, he's highly regarded as a man that has been able to reach across the aisle to accomplish so much for the state of Maryland and he has that respect from the left.
Last I saw, the race was about dead even between he and Ms. Alsobrooks. . .
8 points ? I don't think so . .
Jus' saying.
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The AARP poll is a massive outlier though. FWIW Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Larry Sabado all have this race rated as likely D.
 
Zoo_View said:
He’ll get primaried if he doesn’t go Ted Cruz.

Regardless of that, the BEST CASE SCENARIO is he’s Susan Collins.

We don’t need another Susan Collins.
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Not even close, he's only getting a chance because he's not Ted Cruz. Trust me, Republicans in this state would rather have him than nothing at all.
 
www.yahoo.com

New Yahoo News/YouGov poll: A huge surge in Democratic optimism — but no big bounce for Harris — after the DNC

Harris (47%) and Trump (46%) remain effectively tied in a head-to-head match-up.
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com

New Yahoo News/YouGov poll: A huge surge in Democratic optimism — but no big bounce for Harris — after the DNC​


“… Harris (47%) leads Trump (46%) by only one point in a head-to-head matchup among registered voters — a margin that does not change (Harris 46% vs. Trump 45%) when third-party candidates are included on the hypothetical ballot.

…
The previous Yahoo News/YouGov poll — which was conducted just after the Republican National Convention but mostly before Biden ended his candidacy and endorsed Harris — found Harris and Trump tied at 46% apiece.

In other words, if Harris got a “bounce” from the DNC, it was a very small one — too small to alter the fundamentally deadlocked nature of the 2024 contest. …”
 
Raijin23 said:
Not even close, he's only getting a chance because he's not Ted Cruz. Trust me, Republicans in this state would rather have him than nothing at all.
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If he lucks out and wins the Senate race, he gets primaried from the Right in 2030.

Regardless, if he wins he’ll be a loyal Republican lapdog whenever they need his vote; when they don’t need his vote, he’ll be allowed to bolster his “moderate” bonafides.
 
nycfan said:
www.yahoo.com

New Yahoo News/YouGov poll: A huge surge in Democratic optimism — but no big bounce for Harris — after the DNC

Harris (47%) and Trump (46%) remain effectively tied in a head-to-head match-up.
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com

New Yahoo News/YouGov poll: A huge surge in Democratic optimism — but no big bounce for Harris — after the DNC​


“… Harris (47%) leads Trump (46%) by only one point in a head-to-head matchup among registered voters — a margin that does not change (Harris 46% vs. Trump 45%) when third-party candidates are included on the hypothetical ballot.

…
The previous Yahoo News/YouGov poll — which was conducted just after the Republican National Convention but mostly before Biden ended his candidacy and endorsed Harris — found Harris and Trump tied at 46% apiece.

In other words, if Harris got a “bounce” from the DNC, it was a very small one — too small to alter the fundamentally deadlocked nature of the 2024 contest. …”
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Buckle up folks, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.
 
Given how weak the NC Governor is, it’s impossible for the NC Gubernatorial race to be a “premier” race.

Phil Berger and whoever is the new GOP Speaker will continue to dominate the North Carolina government.
 
rodoheel said:
Buckle up folks, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.
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Definitely going to be a bumpy ride and a close election that we'll probably be sweating out for a few days after Election Day. To maintain optimism, I just keep going back to how all of the fundamentals- fundraising, enthusiasm, new voter registration, grassroots efforts, a booming economy, no foreign wars involving American troops, etc.- currently favor the Harris campaign. That doesn't mean that the Harris campaign will definitively win, of course, but I think we'd much, much rather be the Harris campaign than the Trump campaign right now- and I don't think any of us could have said that 6 weeks ago.
 
Zoo_View said:
If he lucks out and wins the Senate race, he gets primaried from the Right in 2030.

Regardless, if he wins he’ll be a loyal Republican lapdog whenever they need his vote; when they don’t need his vote, he’ll be allowed to bolster his “moderate” bonafides.
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Do you live here or follow Maryland politics closely? Because your opinion here doesn't seem to be rooted in any facts pertinent to this actual race.
 
superrific said:
If we lose this Senate race, then fuck Maryland forever. I don't care how popular Larry Hogan is. His main function in the Senate will be to vote for the GOP Majority Leader. We will never get a Supreme Court appointment through without a Dem majority. I will refuse to spend any money in Maryland.
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I’ll be doing my part and voting for Alsobrooks as many times as I can!
 
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