2024 Political Polls

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CFordUNC said:
Definitely going to be a bumpy ride and a close election that we'll probably be sweating out for a few days after Election Day. To maintain optimism, I just keep going back to how all of the fundamentals- fundraising, enthusiasm, new voter registration, grassroots efforts, a booming economy, no foreign wars involving American troops, etc.- currently favor the Harris campaign. That doesn't mean that the Harris campaign will definitively win, of course, but I think we'd much, much rather be the Harris campaign than the Trump campaign right now- and I don't think any of us could have said that 6 weeks ago.
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I look at it like this and I believe you’ve stated the same.
Regardless of the polls I’d rather be where Harris is today than trump.
 
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Not much of a bounce after DNC... Oh well. Fact remains, most of us went to bed in Nov. 2016 with a certain feeling of ease - due to most of the "polling" up to that point... only to wake up and say: "WTF?!?"
So giving much thought, or feeling too certain about polling now is fool's gold if you're a Dem, and a "meh, we been here before" if you're a Pub.
 
Zoo_View said:
Given how weak the NC Governor is, it’s impossible for the NC Gubernatorial race to be a “premier” race.

Phil Berger and whoever is the new GOP Speaker will continue to dominate the North Carolina government.
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If Stein gets elected, the General Assembly will likely reduce the duties of the governor to showing up at events to cut ribbons.
 
Centerpiece said:
Not much of a bounce after DNC... Oh well. Fact remains, most of us went to bed in Nov. 2016 with a certain feeling of ease - due to most of the "polling" up to that point... only to wake up and say: "WTF?!?"
So giving much thought, or feeling too certain about polling now is fool's gold if you're a Dem, and a "meh, we been here before" if you're a Pub.
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I still think it's a little premature to say that there is no polling bounce from the convention since it just ended not even 6 days ago. If we get to the end of next week and polls are showing no convention bounce, I think that would be more believable.
 
Raijin23 said:
Do you live here or follow Maryland politics closely? Because your opinion here doesn't seem to be rooted in any facts pertinent to this actual race.
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You actually think a “moderate” Republican anywhere won’t get primaried from the Right? The Tea Party and MAGA say even in “liberal” Maryland, he’ll get primaried.

Also, the recent history (last 20 years) of GOP “moderates” in the Senate, says they’ll be good GOP soldiers when the GOP needs their votes and “moderate” when it’s a meaningless vote.

The “moderates,” “Independent-leaning Democrats,” and “Independents” who vote for Hogan in this Senate race are fools.
 
altmin said:
iirc Trump did not get a convention bounce either. Likely people just don't care about televised pep rallies anymore.
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The world has changed. These events aren’t really how people gather information or form opinions anymore.

The DNC was a success in getting Dems excited and maybe swaying a few Independents.
 
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Zoo_View said:
You actually think a “moderate” Republican anywhere won’t get primaried from the Right? The Tea Party and MAGA say even in “liberal” Maryland, he’ll get primaried.

Also, the recent history (last 20 years) of GOP “moderates” in the Senate, says they’ll be good GOP soldiers when the GOP needs their votes and “moderate” when it’s a meaningless vote.

The “moderates,” “Independent-leaning Democrats,” and “Independents” who vote for Hogan in this Senate race are fools.
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Yes, I do. The majority of Republicans in Maryland are not MAGAs, so I doubt he'll be primaried if he were to win.

Now I do believe he would go along with enough of the GOPs agenda to disqualify him for the Senate, so he won't get my vote but he's enough of his own candidate that he would not need the GOPs support to win the state, which is what makes him dangerous.
 
nycfan said:
www.yahoo.com

New Yahoo News/YouGov poll: A huge surge in Democratic optimism — but no big bounce for Harris — after the DNC

Harris (47%) and Trump (46%) remain effectively tied in a head-to-head match-up.
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com

New Yahoo News/YouGov poll: A huge surge in Democratic optimism — but no big bounce for Harris — after the DNC​


“… Harris (47%) leads Trump (46%) by only one point in a head-to-head matchup among registered voters — a margin that does not change (Harris 46% vs. Trump 45%) when third-party candidates are included on the hypothetical ballot.

…
The previous Yahoo News/YouGov poll — which was conducted just after the Republican National Convention but mostly before Biden ended his candidacy and endorsed Harris — found Harris and Trump tied at 46% apiece.

In other words, if Harris got a “bounce” from the DNC, it was a very small one — too small to alter the fundamentally deadlocked nature of the 2024 contest. …”
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The internals in that poll suggest a very nice bounce for Harris
 
heelinhell said:
The internals in that poll suggest a very nice bounce for Harris
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Right? There are some really rough numbers in there for Trump - showing he's capped at about 46-47% really. And that's just registered voters. I dont know if pollsters are ready for the blue side to be the enthusiastic ones.

I am confused why they lead with an enthusiasm surge, but they also do a registered voter poll. Usually by the time you get after the conventions, they shift to likely voter models.

Of course anything with Yahoolol is just weird.
 
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Trump got surges of first time voters in 2016 and a little bit in 2020.

Is it likely that polls are missing the same on the blue side right now with all of the small donations, enthusiasm gains and registrations happening??
 
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