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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
  • Start date Start date
  • Replies: 6K
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  • Politics 
grimes70 said:
McGovern door knocker as well. Mostly upper/middle class Raleigh. Doubt I changed anyone's mind.

ETA I was told it wouldn't do much good to door knock in CH. Thus I honed in on my old Raleigh neighborhoods.
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Someone in Chapel Hill created a “Chapel Hill, Massachusetts,” bumpersticker immediately after the election.

Massachusetts and Washington, DC were the only EV’s McGovern won. Nixon won 60.7% of the vote.
 
heelinhell said:
me too !

Not only was I excited, I knocked on doors to campaign for McGovern

How naive was I at 18yo ? I actually thought he would beat Nixon and end the war in Viet Nam 😇
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I very clearly remembering staying up late and watching the DNC on TV that year. I was pumped and sure McGovern was going to win.

I was 14 but I still should have known better.
 
RockyMtnHoo said:
If the CNN interview shifted the odds in Trump’s favor, then I’m not sure what to say. There really wasn’t a “bad” interview response from Harris or Walz…then compare that to any random 10 minutes of Trump anywhere on the campaign trail.
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Is there any reason to think it was the interview rather than, say, following the shift in Nate Silver’s model that happened the same day?
 
nycfan said:
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I don’t get this take. First, that lead, if real, is not “slight.” It would likely mean an EC blowout. Second, while the MOE is an important caveat, the fact the lead is relatively stable with polling several weeks apart suggests it’s more likely to be reasonably accurate. Third, if I’m looking at the right things, the lead in that poll is a little higher than it was before the DNC. In short, it seems like Karl is trying to paint this as not meaningful. It looks like a GREAT poll for Kamala to me.
 


What’s weird (in my experience) is I had to actively search for the primary poll results on Twitter — even though I follow quite a few accounts that are publicizing the results.
 
I went back and found the Ipsos poll result from the same time in 2020 - first poll at the end of August after the DNC and RNC.

IMG_2619.jpeg

The poll released today shows a lot more settled decisions than the same time in 2020 — basically tracks the actual election outcome that year. But at this point in 2020, it seems like the firm anti-Trump vote was in Biden’s camp and a significant majority of reported undecideds and third party supporters eventually went to Trump, but not enough to overcome Biden’s lead among the firmly decided voters.
 
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