2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[uncgriff]

That point could prove critical

 

[Healing]

That point could prove critical

If it does, I’ll basically be throwing up all night.

 

[nycfan]

R-leaning pollster:

 

[SnoopRob]

R-leaning pollster:

 

[aGDevil2k]

If I recall they lean almost horizontally

 

[SnoopRob]

If I recall they lean almost horizontally

 

[nycfan]

“We” in this tweet = split-ticket.org and their average of polls. A fairly new polling outfit comprised of a sort of commune of young political nerds that claims to try to be centrist and so far seems to have some interesting work on under-polled areas especially.

Split Ticket

Elections at your fingertips

split-ticket.org

 

[nycfan]

Trafalgar is R-leaning … in 2020 they had Trump winning Michigan, PA, AZ, NV and GA by 1-4 points in their final swing-state polls.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Trafalgar is R-leaning …

Leaning??

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

Leaning??

Updated it with context

 

[nycfan]

 

[Bigs23]

Trafalgar is R-leaning … in 2020 they had Trump winning Michigan, PA, AZ, NV and GA by 1-4 points in their final swing-state polls.

Those are good Harris numbers from Trafaglar.

 

[Bigs23]

These are pretty good Harris numbers as well. A split in those 4 states is a Dem win.

 

[nycfan]

Along with Rasmussen, Trafalgar and Wick, InsiderAdvantage is another R-leaning flood the zone outfit (built in part to feed R-leaning polls into the RCP average).


But it is notable when Rasmussen/Trafalgar/Wick/Insider Advantage have races within the MOE.

Edit to add that Gold Crown Politics is one I see pop up more and more but they seem to be positioning themselves as polls for people who think Rasmussen is a communist polling outfit.

Edit further to add that Susquehanna and Co/Efficient and Quantus are also R-leaning pollsters.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Along with Rasmussen, Trafalgar and Wick, InsiderAdvantage is another R-leaning flood the zone outfit (built in part to feed R-leaning polls into the RCP average).


But it is notable when Rasmussen/Trafalgar/Wick/Insider Advantage have races within the MOE.

Edit to add that Gold Crown Politics is one I see pop up more and more but they seem to be positioning themselves as polls for people who think Rasmussen is a communist polling outfit.

Yep. They are working to build a narrative

 

[Healing]

Yep. They are working to build a narrative

I'm assuming we're talking multiple narratives:
1. The race is very close, so GQPers vote, vote, vote
2. The race is very close, so if Harris wins comfortably it's obviously due to fraud
3. The race is ttump's to win, so Dems, don't bother voting
4. Don't worry donald, the race is yours to win, here's your binky (i.e. favorable polls)

 

[aGDevil2k]

I'm assuming we're talking multiple narratives:
1. The race is very close, so GQPers vote, vote, vote
2. The race is very close, so if Harris wins comfortably it's obviously due to fraud
3. The race is ttump's to win, so Dems, don't bother voting
4. Don't worry donald, the race is yours to win, here's your binky (i.e. favorable polls)

2 and 4 were in my mind

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/02/trump-harris-polls-2024-00176981?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Where the race between Trump and Harris stands on Labor Day, according to our polling expert​

A race that Kamala Harris leads nationally is the equivalent of a knife fight in a phone booth, and it’s set to be decided in a smaller-than-usual number of states.


“…
Of the seven states that both campaigns have identified as the core Electoral College battlegrounds, Harris leads Trump in three of them — the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — according to multiple polling averages. But those leads are small: In only one state, Wisconsin, does an average show a greater than 3-point margin for the vice president.

In three others — Arizona, Georgia and Nevada — the polls are so close that different polling averages have different leaders as of Sunday night.

Only in the remaining swing state — North Carolina, which Trump won in both 2016 and 2020 — does the former president lead in all three polling averages: FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics and Silver Bulletin, the new data-journalism site from FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver. But that lead is only around 1 point.

…

Arizona (11 electoral votes)​

FiveThirtyEight average: Harris +0.2
RealClearPolitics average: Trump +0.5
Silver Bulletin average: Trump +0.5
2020 result: Biden +0.3

…

North Carolina (16 electoral votes)​

FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +0.4
RealClearPolitics average: Trump +0.6
Silver Bulletin average: Trump +0.3
2020 result: Trump +1.3

The only battleground state where Trump leads in all three averages, but it’s still only by about 1 point — which was also his margin in last week’s Fox News poll. …”