2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[lawtig02]

I went back and found the Ipsos poll result from the same time in 2020 - first poll at the end of August after the DNC.



The poll released today shows a lot more settled decisions than the same time in 2020 — basically tracks the actual election outcome that year. But at this point in 2020, it seems like the firm anti-Trump vote was in Biden’s camp and a significant majority of reported undecideds and third party supporters eventually went to Trump, but not enough to overcome Biden’s lead among the firmly decided voters.

Wasn’t the RNC after the DNC in 2020? I’ll look it up but that’s my recollection.

 

[uncgriff]

I went back and found the Ipsos poll result from the same time in 2020 - first poll at the end of August after the DNC.



The poll released today shows a lot more settled decisions than the same time in 2020 — basically tracks the actual election outcome that year. But at this point in 2020, it seems like the firm anti-Trump vote was in Biden’s camp and a significant majority of reported undecideds and third party supporters eventually went to Trump, but not enough to overcome Biden’s lead among the firmly decided voters.

Yeah. Anyone who is undecided at this point is lying to themselves or others. The big question is 'will I vote?'. Which is why the enthusiasm tsunami compared to Biden is so critical. Turnout turnout turnout

 

[nycfan]

Wasn’t the RNC after the DNC in 2020? I’ll look it up but that’s my recollection.

yes but this was after both (should have been more clear).

 

[lawtig02]

yes but this was after both (should have been more clear).

Ok, got it.

 

[nycfan]

Their next poll was mid-September 2020:

 

[Mulberry Heel]

It's almost like the news media desperately wants this to be a very close, highly controversial election with maximum possible drama, so they're going to downplay any good news for Kamala and play up Trump's chances. Why? Because Trump has been great for ratings and website hits and subscriptions and they don't want that to go away. While I don't doubt a good many DC journalists will vote for Kamala, I also don't doubt that many in the national news media - including the NY Times, WaPo, ABC News, and other supposedly centrist/liberal mainstream outlets - will be perfectly happy with a Trump victory. And I do expect the media double standard with Harris to continue right through the election at least.

 

[lawtig02]

Their next poll was mid-September 2020:

To your earlier point, 6% undecided in mid-September was a lot. The conventional wisdom is that stragglers break to the incumbent, and that is consistent with what happened in 2020. With no incumbent this year, it will be interesting to see how that plays out. And while it’s just two points, 52% is a lot better than 50%, especially where Trump is highly likely to be capped at 47%.

 

[Geisterfahrer]

Slight in that it is an actual lead just outside the margin of error.

Fair but if that ends up the national margin she wins the EC laughing.

 

[Rock]

 

[lawtig02]

Reading more about this Ipsos poll, I see this comment from CNN —

“The results suggest a slightly wider lead for Harris among likely voters, 52% Harris to 46% Trump, a finding also similar to the likely voter result pre-convention (51% Harris to 45% Trump).“

That’s a really hard statement to justify. A six point lead with 98% of the vote accounted for is MUCH stronger than a six point lead with 96% of the vote accounted for. And when you get to this level of participation, 52% is much better than 51%. Polling is kind of like the Richter scale at these margins.

All the caveats apply — MOE, just one poll, national v battlegrounds, etc. But Ipsos is a very good pollster, and Kamala is now getting numbers that should make her a strong favorite barring a major mistake.

 

[nycfan]

 

[superrific]

I don't think an Ipsos poll in 2020 is comparable to an Ipsos poll in 2024. Different races = different polls

 

[heelinhell]

I would like to see some more recent polls for florida and texas

last poll I saw for Fla was 8/14 having Trump up +3
last poll I saw for Texas was 8/22 having Trump +5

 

[BillOfRights]

So does the model provide a statistical chance that Harris wins the popular vote? I understand virtual certainty isn't precise language. It just seems overwhelmingly likely that Harris wins the popular vote, so any model that gives her a 17% chance of winning it while losing the EC would naturally mean it's unlikely she loses the EC. But then he has Trump as the favorite to win the EC. Maybe I'm overestimating the chance Harris wins the PV?

I'm not seeing Silver's numbers, but his old operation, 538, gives Harris a 69% chance of winning the popular vote and a 13% chance of winning the popular vote and losing the EC.

 

[nycfan]

I would like to see some more recent polls for florida and texas

last poll I saw for Fla was 8/14 having Trump up +3
last poll I saw for Texas was 8/22 having Trump +5

ActiVote has read your mind and has two out today, with Trump +9 in Texas and Trump +7 in Florida. I didn’t post b/c their Texas results add up to 101% so I figured something was a little garbled in the reporting.

 

[aGDevil2k]

ActiVote has read your mind and has two out today, with Trump +9 in Texas and Trump +7 in Florida. I didn’t post b/c their Texas results add up to 101% so I figured something was a little garbled in the reporting.

ActiVote has been flagged as this year's fly-by-night random pollster.

 

[nycfan]

 

[BillOfRights]

That depends on the criteria GOP officials in various states have used to purge their voter roles. As I recall when I lived in Ohio, if one didn't vote in x number of elections (including primaries) and did not respond to two requests to verify their registration (returning a card) you were removed from the voter rolls (claiming they assumed you had moved or died.) I can see a lot of people registering for a specific election then not voting for four years while ignoring the verification cards as junk mail. People who don't vote every time the polls are open really need to check their registrations, especially if you live in a state where Republicans dominate the apparatus.

Check your voter registration:

Can I Vote | NASS

www.nass.org

 

[TarHeelGrad]

I don’t get this take. First, that lead, if real, is not “slight.” It would likely mean an EC blowout. Second, while the MOE is an important caveat, the fact the lead is relatively stable with polling several weeks apart suggests it’s more likely to be reasonably accurate. Third, if I’m looking at the right things, the lead in that poll is a little higher than it was before the DNC. In short, it seems like Karl is trying to paint this as not meaningful. It looks like a GREAT poll for Kamala to me.

I am all for not letting any potential Democratic voter base getting too complacent. Continue to instill fear in them and let them know that no lead is safe, especially with potential shenanigans in some of the swing states.

I keep thinking of the line in Remember the Titans: "Run it up, Herman. Leave no doubt!".

 

[nycfan]