2024 Political Polls

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I don't think an Ipsos poll in 2020 is comparable to an Ipsos poll in 2024. Different races = different polls
 
Enigma94 said:
So does the model provide a statistical chance that Harris wins the popular vote? I understand virtual certainty isn't precise language. It just seems overwhelmingly likely that Harris wins the popular vote, so any model that gives her a 17% chance of winning it while losing the EC would naturally mean it's unlikely she loses the EC. But then he has Trump as the favorite to win the EC. Maybe I'm overestimating the chance Harris wins the PV?
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I'm not seeing Silver's numbers, but his old operation, 538, gives Harris a 69% chance of winning the popular vote and a 13% chance of winning the popular vote and losing the EC.
 
heelinhell said:
I would like to see some more recent polls for florida and texas

last poll I saw for Fla was 8/14 having Trump up +3
last poll I saw for Texas was 8/22 having Trump +5
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ActiVote has read your mind and has two out today, with Trump +9 in Texas and Trump +7 in Florida. I didn’t post b/c their Texas results add up to 101% so I figured something was a little garbled in the reporting.
 
nycfan said:
ActiVote has read your mind and has two out today, with Trump +9 in Texas and Trump +7 in Florida. I didn’t post b/c their Texas results add up to 101% so I figured something was a little garbled in the reporting.
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ActiVote has been flagged as this year's fly-by-night random pollster.
 
farce© said:
That depends on the criteria GOP officials in various states have used to purge their voter roles. As I recall when I lived in Ohio, if one didn't vote in x number of elections (including primaries) and did not respond to two requests to verify their registration (returning a card) you were removed from the voter rolls (claiming they assumed you had moved or died.) I can see a lot of people registering for a specific election then not voting for four years while ignoring the verification cards as junk mail. People who don't vote every time the polls are open really need to check their registrations, especially if you live in a state where Republicans dominate the apparatus.
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Check your voter registration:

Can I Vote | NASS

www.nass.org www.nass.org
 
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lawtig02 said:
I don’t get this take. First, that lead, if real, is not “slight.” It would likely mean an EC blowout. Second, while the MOE is an important caveat, the fact the lead is relatively stable with polling several weeks apart suggests it’s more likely to be reasonably accurate. Third, if I’m looking at the right things, the lead in that poll is a little higher than it was before the DNC. In short, it seems like Karl is trying to paint this as not meaningful. It looks like a GREAT poll for Kamala to me.
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I am all for not letting any potential Democratic voter base getting too complacent. Continue to instill fear in them and let them know that no lead is safe, especially with potential shenanigans in some of the swing states.

I keep thinking of the line in Remember the Titans: "Run it up, Herman. Leave no doubt!".
 


“We” in this tweet = split-ticket.org and their average of polls. A fairly new polling outfit comprised of a sort of commune of young political nerds that claims to try to be centrist and so far seems to have some interesting work on under-polled areas especially.

split-ticket.org

Split Ticket

Electoral analysis at your fingertips
split-ticket.org split-ticket.org
 
Trafalgar is R-leaning … in 2020 they had Trump winning Michigan, PA, AZ, NV and GA by 1-4 points in their final swing-state polls.

 
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