2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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HeelingAg said:
I'm assuming we're talking multiple narratives:
1. The race is very close, so GQPers vote, vote, vote
2. The race is very close, so if Harris wins comfortably it's obviously due to fraud
3. The race is ttump's to win, so Dems, don't bother voting
4. Don't worry donald, the race is yours to win, here's your binky (i.e. favorable polls)
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5. They cheated. The polls show we were winning.
 
I saw a poll today that had Harris up by 13 pts with women voters and Trump up by 5pts with men voters...

If the GQP voter suppression/nullification strategy is ineffective and voters are allowed to vote, Harris wins
 
aGDevil2k said:
Yep. They are working to build a narrative
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It's part and parcel of the entire right-wing media sphere.

The whole enterprise is set up on the idea that they can create a self-reinforcing, interrelated group of "sources" of info/data that all point in the same direction and tell the same story.

It's hard to make a case that right-wing biased polling is correct when you only have Rasmussen vs. everyone else. So, inevitably, there had to be the creation of a handful of right-wing polling groups so that all could get the same results and each was "evidence" of the others.

The entire point is to have an impenetrable information bubble where all info and data point to the right-wing narrative that's being given. It's much easier to do that when you have multiple vs one right-wing polling firm(s) to provide the needed data.
 
Remember that ActiVote poll I said existed but didn’t post because it added up to 101%? Turns out that was not their only issue, so will disregard that one going forward.

 
“… The vice president's small lead was fueled by big shifts among some key demographic groups traditionally crucial for Democrats, including Hispanic and Black voters and young people. Among those with annual incomes of less than $20,000, in the biggest change, a three-point Trump edge over Biden in June has become a 23-point Harris advantage over Trump in August.

…
The poll of 1,000 likely voters, taken by landline and cellphone Sunday through Wednesday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. With the election approaching, the survey is now measuring likely voters; previous polls were of registered voters.

Without the customary rounding of results, her edge would be closer to four points than five, 47.6%-43.3%. …”
 
More from USA Today:

“…
Among the biggest shifts since June, all outside the poll's margin of error:

  • Voters 18 to 34 years old moved from supporting Trump by 11 points to supporting Harris by 13 points, 49%-36%.
  • Hispanics, a group the Republican campaign has been cultivating, moved from supporting Trump by two points to supporting Harris by 16 points, 53%-37%.
  • Black voters, traditionally one of the most overwhelmingly Democratic groups, moved from supporting Biden by 47 points to supporting Harris by 64 points, 76%-12%. …”
 
nycfan said:
More from USA Today:

“…
Among the biggest shifts since June, all outside the poll's margin of error:

  • Voters 18 to 34 years old moved from supporting Trump by 11 points to supporting Harris by 13 points, 49%-36%.
  • Hispanics, a group the Republican campaign has been cultivating, moved from supporting Trump by two points to supporting Harris by 16 points, 53%-37%.
  • Black voters, traditionally one of the most overwhelmingly Democratic groups, moved from supporting Biden by 47 points to supporting Harris by 64 points, 76%-12%. …”
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I find it hard to believe that a majority of 18-34 support Trump at all, much less by 11 pts.
 


“… Nearly 30% of respondents said the country is headed in the right direction, a 9-point jump from early July, while 61% said the country is headed in the wrong direction, a 9-point decrease. The figures reflect the most favorable view of the country’s trajectory since at least November 2021.

The shift was largely driven by Democrats, who recorded a 13-point jump in the share that said the country was headed in the right direction when compared with early July. A majority of independents still believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, but the number of independents who said the country is headed in the right direction rose by 9 points from early July. …”
 
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