2024 Political Polls

[Bigs23]

I’ve always been concerned that putting abortion rights on the ballot a la carte may not have the impact that Democrats hope it have and, in fact, may have the opposite impact. Having it on the ballot a la carte gives voters an “out.” They can vote for Trump but still feel like they’ve done something to protect abortion rights. They’ll feel like they can have their cake and eat it too.

People that are going to vote trump were always going to vote for trump.

Having abortion on the ballot brings people out whom otherwise may not have voted at all.

It’s also hard to be pro-life and pro-trump.

 

[Icky Mettle]

Those are good Wisconsin and Michigan polls. If she wins those 2, she needs 1 of Nevada or Arizona and 1 of NC, GA, PA

I really hate the electoral college game. Such a stupid concept.

 

[uncjhodges]

I really hate the electoral college game. Such a stupid concept.

What, you don’t like the whole presidency to boil down to 6-7 states

 

[Icky Mettle]

People that are going to vote were always going to vote for trump.

Having abortion on the ballot brings people out whom otherwise may not have voted at all.

It’s also hard to be pro-life and pro-trump.

I think people who identify abortion rights as the most important issue to them are people who have always been at least fairly politically aware and would come to the polls anyway. And they have been historically pro-Democrat. It’s that small group of undecideds for whom this provides an out. I was listening to a segment on NPR this morning where they were talking to undecided voters. One woman leaned Trump, but she was torn because she also wanted to protect abortion rights. I don’t know where she was from, but if she lived in Arizona, for example, she can have it both ways in the voting booth. If she lives somewhere where abortion rights are not on the ballot, then that very well could be what pulls her from Trump to Harris. If anyone is undecided simply because they are okay with Trump but also want to protect abortion rights (and there are such people, as crazy and counterintuitive as that may sound), then putting it on the ballot a la carte favors Trump in those situations.

 

[rodoheel]

They’re overreacting to the Kennedy endorsement.

KH is having record turnout in rallies across America. Voter registration off the charts. The greatest fundraising period by a presidential candidate ever. Flipped many states overnight relative to Biden. Enthusiasm at an all time high relative to Pubs.

Media: Toss up.

Eh I mean there's plenty of justification for still calling it a toss-up. Everything you mentioned is great, but not dispositive. This thing will be close all the way to the finish line IMO.

 

[rodoheel]

Sure looks like Pennsylvania is in real danger. Extremely dispiriting.

I also don't understand what has happened in Nevada. Even Clinton won Nevada.

Very easy to feel hopeless

I think Nevada has been trending more conservative and right-wing, especially Vegas, which is where Democrats have always counted on getting the votes they needed to win. IMO it won't even be considered a battleground state in another cycle or two.

 

[aGDevil2k]

I think Nevada has been trending more conservative and right-wing, especially Vegas, which is where Democrats have always counted on getting the votes they needed to win. IMO it won't even be considered a battleground state in another cycle or two.

Eh it's really not growing, outside of Vegas.
Hard to say any predominately Hispanic State would not be competitive. It's not turning whiter.

As for Nate the not great ... He's never going to go out on a limb after he screwed up 2016 and 2018 like he did

 

[BlooVooDoo]

I think Nevada has been trending more conservative and right-wing, especially Vegas, which is where Democrats have always counted on getting the votes they needed to win. IMO it won't even be considered a battleground state in another cycle or two.

The hotel worker strike might be an opportunity for Harris and Dems.

 

[CallMeTyler]

Eh I mean there's plenty of justification for still calling it a toss-up. Everything you mentioned is great, but not dispositive. This thing will be close all the way to the finish line IMO.

Democrats are showing almost 20 pts higher in voter enthusiasm. That will show on election day.

 

[BurtoniumAD]

I have a difficult time believing that Shapiro would have theoretically carried Pennsylvania on the ticket but cant carry it off the ticket while being able to spend more actual time in the state campaigning on Harris’s behalf.

I don’t think she will lose Pennsylvania, though.

I also read an article that states that have popular governors of a certain party typically vote that party, so I think PA will inevitably go to Harris.

That is probably the one thing that is making Georgia a toss-up, but the fact that Trump went after Kemp - and Duncan being from Georgia - may have softened that blow. I think she wins GA too and I actually think she wins NC for similar reasons, mainly the drag Robinson is - I suspect Republican turnout may be a little depressed this go round, but normal + Dem turnout will be higher because of him and the nutbag Education lady.

 

[rodoheel]

Of the current "swing states," this is how I would rank them with respect to my confidence that Harris carries them:

1. Wisconsin - feel pretty confident here
2. Michigan - you could flip this with Wisconsin and I wouldn't argue
3. Arizona - not sure this aligns with the data but I think Kari Lake is going to lose by several points and be a big anchor on Trump here
4. Pennsylvania - the likely tipping point state; I'm really nervous about the polling
5. Georgia - only four letters that matter here: G-O-T-V. If Dems can get their urban voters to the polls (and get their votes in over all the likely Republican vote-suppressing shenanigans) they can win here.
6. Nevada - see my post above, I think this one is trending away from Dems in a macro sense
7. NC - I'll believe it when I see it

 

[Icky Mettle]

I think Nevada has been trending more conservative and right-wing, especially Vegas, which is where Democrats have always counted on getting the votes they needed to win. IMO it won't even be considered a battleground state in another cycle or two.

Yeah. I’m surprised Nevada still goes blue. It generally seems like a microcosm of contemporary Republican politics: grifting, extremely resistant to regulation, catering to the wealthy, putting on a show, lacking in genuineness, etc.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Democrats are showing almost 20 pts higher in voter enthusiasm. That will show on election day.

That part!!

That's the shit polls miss because they aren't designed to capture the casual voter that isn't likely every cycle. But then when they wake up, the things on the ground are just missed by polls

It's what Trump had in 16. And Harris seems to have it now

 

[HeelInTheOzarks]

I understand the nervousness about Pennsylvania but if you had told me 2 of the 3 blue wall states would have stabilized as Dem leads by now at the point the nominees switched, I would’ve taken it in a heartbeat.

 

[GoHeelsweeeehoooo]

I expect North Carolina to elect several Democrats in statewide races but still go Republican in the presidential election

 

[Bigs23]

I think people who identify abortion rights as the most important issue to them are people who have always been at least fairly politically aware and would come to the polls anyway. And they have been historically pro-Democrat. It’s that small group of undecideds for whom this provides an out. I was listening to a segment on NPR this morning where they were talking to undecided voters. One woman leaned Trump, but she was torn because she also wanted to protect abortion rights. I don’t know where she was from, but if she lived in Arizona, for example, she can have it both ways in the voting booth. If she lives somewhere where abortion rights are not on the ballot, then that very well could be what pulls her from Trump to Harris. If anyone is undecided simply because they are okay with Trump but also want to protect abortion rights (and there are such people, as crazy and counterintuitive as that may sound), then putting it on the ballot a la carte favors Trump in those situations.

Recent election results don’t support your theory.

Abortion is a losing topic for trump and the GOP.

 

[mpaer]

I expect North Carolina to elect several Democrats in statewide races but still go Republican in the presidential election

Thank you Pubs for running some real buffons for State offices

 

[Bigs23]

That part!!

That's the shit polls miss because they aren't designed to capture the casual voter that isn't likely every cycle. But then when they wake up, the things on the ground are just missed by polls

It's what Trump had in 16. And Harris seems to have it now

It really is a lot about Big Mo.

 

[lawtig02]

At a macro level, I think we’re now to the point where the election comes down to one question — can Kamala avoid a major mistake? If she can, she wins. Trump’s support is capped. He’s not even trying to win new voters now. He’ll be doing everything he can to drive down Dem enthusiasm, but realistically, the only way that happens is if Kamala says something really stupid, a new (legitimate) scandal emerges, etc.

The biggest problem for Trump, though, is that Kamala’s support is not yet capped. She’s still not universally known, and even many of those who know her don’t know what she really stands for. She can still bring people off the sideline. Trump can’t.

Get ready for the ugliest, most negative two months in the recent history of presidential politics. Trump and his sycophants will be doing everything they can to make Kamala trip. She just needs to stay on her feet and shrug off the muck that will be thrown her way. I think she can do it.

 

[CFordUNC]