2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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Sure looks like Pennsylvania is in real danger. Extremely dispiriting.

I also don't understand what has happened in Nevada. Even Clinton won Nevada.

Very easy to feel hopeless
 
I have a difficult time believing that Shapiro would have theoretically carried Pennsylvania on the ticket but cant carry it off the ticket while being able to spend more actual time in the state campaigning on Harris’s behalf.

I don’t think she will lose Pennsylvania, though.
 
They’re overreacting to the Kennedy endorsement.

KH is having record turnout in rallies across America. Voter registration off the charts. The greatest fundraising period by a presidential candidate ever. Flipped many states overnight relative to Biden. Enthusiasm at an all time high relative to Pubs.

Media: Toss up.
 
nycfan said:
As an aside, it would be so weird to see AZ vote FOR abortion rights, AGAINST Kerri Lake and FOR Donald Trump. Which is something that very well could happen.
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I’ve always been concerned that putting abortion rights on the ballot a la carte may not have the impact that Democrats hope it have and, in fact, may have the opposite impact. Having it on the ballot a la carte gives voters an “out.” They can vote for Trump but still feel like they’ve done something to protect abortion rights. They’ll feel like they can have their cake and eat it too.
 
CFordUNC said:
I have a difficult time believing that Shapiro would have theoretically carried Pennsylvania on the ticket but cant carry it off the ticket while being able to spend more actual time in the state campaigning on Harris’s behalf.

I don’t think she will lose Pennsylvania, though.
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My thoughts exactly
 
Those are good Wisconsin and Michigan polls. If she wins those 2, she needs 1 of Nevada or Arizona and 1 of NC, GA, PA

or just PA
 
Icky Mettle said:
I’ve always been concerned that putting abortion rights on the ballot a la carte may not have the impact that Democrats hope it have and, in fact, may have the opposite impact. Having it on the ballot a la carte gives voters an “out.” They can vote for Trump but still feel like they’ve done something to protect abortion rights. They’ll feel like they can have their cake and eat it too.
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People that are going to vote trump were always going to vote for trump.

Having abortion on the ballot brings people out whom otherwise may not have voted at all.

It’s also hard to be pro-life and pro-trump.
 
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Bigs23 said:
People that are going to vote were always going to vote for trump.

Having abortion on the ballot brings people out whom otherwise may not have voted at all.

It’s also hard to be pro-life and pro-trump.
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I think people who identify abortion rights as the most important issue to them are people who have always been at least fairly politically aware and would come to the polls anyway. And they have been historically pro-Democrat. It’s that small group of undecideds for whom this provides an out. I was listening to a segment on NPR this morning where they were talking to undecided voters. One woman leaned Trump, but she was torn because she also wanted to protect abortion rights. I don’t know where she was from, but if she lived in Arizona, for example, she can have it both ways in the voting booth. If she lives somewhere where abortion rights are not on the ballot, then that very well could be what pulls her from Trump to Harris. If anyone is undecided simply because they are okay with Trump but also want to protect abortion rights (and there are such people, as crazy and counterintuitive as that may sound), then putting it on the ballot a la carte favors Trump in those situations.
 
CallMeTyler said:
They’re overreacting to the Kennedy endorsement.

KH is having record turnout in rallies across America. Voter registration off the charts. The greatest fundraising period by a presidential candidate ever. Flipped many states overnight relative to Biden. Enthusiasm at an all time high relative to Pubs.

Media: Toss up.
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Eh I mean there's plenty of justification for still calling it a toss-up. Everything you mentioned is great, but not dispositive. This thing will be close all the way to the finish line IMO.
 
altmin said:
Sure looks like Pennsylvania is in real danger. Extremely dispiriting.

I also don't understand what has happened in Nevada. Even Clinton won Nevada.

Very easy to feel hopeless
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I think Nevada has been trending more conservative and right-wing, especially Vegas, which is where Democrats have always counted on getting the votes they needed to win. IMO it won't even be considered a battleground state in another cycle or two.
 
rodoheel said:
I think Nevada has been trending more conservative and right-wing, especially Vegas, which is where Democrats have always counted on getting the votes they needed to win. IMO it won't even be considered a battleground state in another cycle or two.
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Eh it's really not growing, outside of Vegas.
Hard to say any predominately Hispanic State would not be competitive. It's not turning whiter.

As for Nate the not great ... He's never going to go out on a limb after he screwed up 2016 and 2018 like he did
 
CFordUNC said:
I have a difficult time believing that Shapiro would have theoretically carried Pennsylvania on the ticket but cant carry it off the ticket while being able to spend more actual time in the state campaigning on Harris’s behalf.

I don’t think she will lose Pennsylvania, though.
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I also read an article that states that have popular governors of a certain party typically vote that party, so I think PA will inevitably go to Harris.

That is probably the one thing that is making Georgia a toss-up, but the fact that Trump went after Kemp - and Duncan being from Georgia - may have softened that blow. I think she wins GA too and I actually think she wins NC for similar reasons, mainly the drag Robinson is - I suspect Republican turnout may be a little depressed this go round, but normal + Dem turnout will be higher because of him and the nutbag Education lady.
 
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