2024 Political Polls

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heelinhell said:
Based upon Trump's rally yesterday, it seems that he has refined a winning platform:

Eliminate the Department of Education
Imprison his political opponents
Foment a Civil War if he loses the election
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“Bloody” deportation of immigrants
 
BurtoniumAD said:
I do not think Obama 08 is unreasonable.l
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While I love the enthusiasm, I think this is looking through very blue colored glasses.

Harris is working through a headwind of 4 years of inflation. Obama had the benefit of a massively unpopular incumbent and then an economic collapse under his R predecessor immediately prior to the election. Atop being a generationally strong politician.

Folks vote their wallet.

Harris has a chance to use this debate to capture hesitant Dems and independents and grab back some momentum. But make no mistake. If she wins - it will be likely be atop an absolutely razor thin win in PA that will be too close to call on election night.

Biden won the national popular vote by 4.5 points and headed into election day with an 8%(ish) lead in national polls and 5% (ish) leads in many swing states.

Kamala has never even touched a 4.5% plus polling advantage. While Biden ultimately finished with a comfortable EC margin, it was across multiple super close states that took days to sort out and which, as of now, Kamala will not be able to duplicate.

Fantasizing Kamala has a hidden 2/3% in support is difficult to support. We know Trump has at least that.

Good money is on Trump right now. But perhaps…perhaps Kamala can finish strong and bump turnout. But make no mistake - she is the underdog here.
 
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Igs149 said:
While I love the enthusiasm, I think this is looking through very blue colored glasses.

Harris is working through a headwind of 4 years of inflation. Obama had the benefit of a massively unpopular incumbent and then an economic collapse under his R predecessor immediately prior to the election. Atop being a generationally strong politician.

Folks vote their wallet.

Harris has a chance to use this debate to capture hesitant Dems and independents and grab back some momentum. But make no mistake. If she wins - it will be likely be atop an absolutely razor thin win in PA that will be too close to call on election night.

Biden won the national popular vote by 4.5 points and headed into election day with an 8%(ish) lead in national polls and 5% (ish) leads in many swing states.

Kamala has never even touched a 4.5% plus polling advantage. While Biden ultimately finished with a comfortable EC margin, it was across multiple super close states that took days to sort out and which, as of now, Kamala will not be able to duplicate.

Fantasizing Kamala has a hidden 2/3% in support is difficult to support. We know Trump has at least that.

Good money is on Trump right now. But perhaps…perhaps Kamala can finish strong and bump turnout. But make no mistake - she is the underdog here.
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We don’t know Trump has that at all. You’re assuming polling methodology hasn’t changed since 2020. It’s certainly possible that will prove to be the case, but it’s far more likely the variance between polling and final results will be quite a bit different this time.
 
nycfan said:
Gift link to NYT cross-tabs: Toplines: September 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters Nationwide

This may be the most critical one buried in there:

IMG_2743.jpeg
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So we can assume that all Trump voters wanted a major change from Biden. Among Kamala supporters, it's about 13% for major change, 32% for minor change, 3% for no change.

Seems about right. 13% never Trumpers. 32% Dems who like Biden and Kamala. "No change" is such a bullshit option. Nobody is going to say, "no change." That implies that the country is perfect. I suspect that if you asked that question in a 2012 poll, you'd get similar results. Maybe 5% off of Major Change, distributed mostly to Minor Change and No Change would have still come in at 5% or less. I also think that if you asked this question in 2020, most MAGA would say Minor Change.
 
Igs149 said:
While I love the enthusiasm, I think this is looking through very blue colored glasses.

Harris is working through a headwind of 4 years of inflation. Obama had the benefit of a massively unpopular incumbent and then an economic collapse under his R predecessor immediately prior to the election. Atop being a generationally strong politician.

Folks vote their wallet.

Harris has a chance to use this debate to capture hesitant Dems and independents and grab back some momentum. But make no mistake. If she wins - it will be likely be atop an absolutely razor thin win in PA that will be too close to call on election night.

Biden won the national popular vote by 4.5 points and headed into election day with an 8%(ish) lead in national polls and 5% (ish) leads in many swing states.

Kamala has never even touched a 4.5% plus polling advantage. While Biden ultimately finished with a comfortable EC margin, it was across multiple super close states that took days to sort out and which, as of now, Kamala will not be able to duplicate.

Fantasizing Kamala has a hidden 2/3% in support is difficult to support. We know Trump has at least that.

Good money is on Trump right now. But perhaps…perhaps Kamala can finish strong and bump turnout. But make no mistake - she is the underdog here.
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No we don't know at all that trump has that

This isn't 2016 anymore. If anything, the quiet voters support Harris... Too nervous to put out signs because of the insanity of MAGAs
 
Igs149 said:
Harris is working through a headwind of 4 years of inflation. Obama had the benefit of a massively unpopular incumbent and then an economic collapse under his R predecessor immediately prior to the election. Atop being a generationally strong politician.
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At the Al Smith dinner before the 2008 election, Obama said "One of McCain's top advisors told him that if we keep talking about the economy, McCain is going to lose. So tonight I'd like to talk about the economy"..
 
aGDevil2k said:
No we don't know at all that trump has that

This isn't 2016 anymore. If anything, the quiet voters support Harris... Too nervous to put out signs because of the insanity of MAGAs
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It's a good thing that the ballot is secret ... at least for now.
 
Igs149 said:
While I love the enthusiasm, I think this is looking through very blue colored glasses.

Harris is working through a headwind of 4 years of inflation. Obama had the benefit of a massively unpopular incumbent and then an economic collapse under his R predecessor immediately prior to the election. Atop being a generationally strong politician.

Folks vote their wallet.

Harris has a chance to use this debate to capture hesitant Dems and independents and grab back some momentum. But make no mistake. If she wins - it will be likely be atop an absolutely razor thin win in PA that will be too close to call on election night.

Biden won the national popular vote by 4.5 points and headed into election day with an 8%(ish) lead in national polls and 5% (ish) leads in many swing states.

Kamala has never even touched a 4.5% plus polling advantage. While Biden ultimately finished with a comfortable EC margin, it was across multiple super close states that took days to sort out and which, as of now, Kamala will not be able to duplicate.

Fantasizing Kamala has a hidden 2/3% in support is difficult to support. We know Trump has at least that.

Good money is on Trump right now. But perhaps…perhaps Kamala can finish strong and bump turnout. But make no mistake - she is the underdog here.
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I don't believe she's the underdog. I'm fine with her campaigning like she's the underdog, but I don't believe she is. And you're making an awful lot of assumptions on this hidden Trump element that's most likely already been baked into the new modelling.
 
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