2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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“… This analysis, produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, finds that support for Harris goes from 54% of all adults younger than 40 to 64% of those identified as likely voters. Trump's support, meanwhile, drops from 42% of adults in this age group to 33% of those likely to vote. …”

abcnews.go.com

Harris approval rating rises among likely voters: POLL

Vice President Kamala Harris is seeing a rise in approval among likely voters, especially younger women and Black Americans, an ABC News/Ipsos poll found.
abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com
 
aGDevil2k said:
They 100% did. That's why folks have been digging into it and finding some big flaws. The evangelical % is ridiculous. What on earth has happened across the NYT over the last decade????
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I figure it's a continuation of the Times-Biden feud that's been going on for 5+ years. As you'd expect, there's been some petty bullshit on both sides but I come down mostly on Biden's side of things. This is a pretty good look at it.

 
Geisterfahrer said:
Seems unlikely to me Nate Cohn would knowingly sanction a poll with obviously slanted sampling.
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Nate's always been in the "well you release what you get and it evens out over time" kind of mindset. Which is fair...but also why one poll can just seem soooo off. Polls never were supposed to be a media story (not a singular poll). But alas....

It also happens as polls are getting worse because no one answers them. Not only are landlines basically gone, but now with screening people arent answering unknown numbers or texts.
 
aGDevil2k said:
Nate's always been in the "well you release what you get and it evens out over time" kind of mindset. Which is fair...but also why one poll can just seem soooo off. Polls never were supposed to be a media story (not a singular poll). But alas....

It also happens as polls are getting worse because no one answers them. Not only are landlines basically gone, but now with screening people arent answering unknown numbers or texts.
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The risk of NYT polling is that, unlike most major polling companies, it gets an enormous built-in platform and an aura of authority because of the NYT’s (well-deserved) reputation. If this were a Gallup or Ipsos poll, nobody would struggle with seeing it as an outlier within the MOE. But because it has the NYT imprimatur, it gets outsized attention.

The reality is it changes nothing. Kamala still has a modest lead nationally, and is doing fine, albeit not great, in the battleground states. I continue to stand by my view that, barring a major mistake, Kamala will win. That’s not likely to change unless something truly historical (like Covid) happens in the next two months.
 
Geisterfahrer said:
Seems unlikely to me Nate Cohn would knowingly sanction a poll with obviously slanted sampling.
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Indeed. Not coincidentally, I can't find anything obviously slanted in the poll sample. The 56% evangelical number was BS. The 45% "too liberal" versus 9% "not progressive enough" is exactly what you'd expect. Most of Trump's supporters are going to view her as too liberal, so 45% is a good estimate. 9% of "not progressive enough" also seems about right, given that the majority of these people are saying they will vote for Harris. The vast majority of her supporters said she was the right ideology, which isn't surprising given that they are going to vote for her.
 
superrific said:
Indeed. Not coincidentally, I can't find anything obviously slanted in the poll sample. The 56% evangelical number was BS. The 45% "too liberal" versus 9% "not progressive enough" is exactly what you'd expect. Most of Trump's supporters are going to view her as too liberal, so 45% is a good estimate. 9% of "not progressive enough" also seems about right, given that the majority of these people are saying they will vote for Harris. The vast majority of her supporters said she was the right ideology, which isn't surprising given that they are going to vote for her.
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Agree. It’s basically just one poll that’s on the lower side of the MOE. If anything, it suggests the 2-4 point national lead for Kamala reflected in the modeling is probably about right. That number needs to be 5 or 6 for everyone to sleep well on election night, but she has a much better chance of getting to that margin than Trump does of bringing it down to 1 or 2.
 
Polling is always sketchy, especially for Trump support. I think the Kamala campaign is probably at least a little concerned at this point. You'd have to wonder if she regrets not selecting Shapiro, which would have all but guaranteed a win in the state.
 
Polls deserve scrutiny and reasonable skepticism, along with all the usual accurate caveats about being a snapshot in time, subject to MOE and necessarily use models based on past voting habits rather than being able to predict the future.

All that said, the side unskewing the polls is usually losing.
 
ZenMode said:
Polling is always sketchy, especially for Trump support. I think the Kamala campaign is probably at least a little concerned at this point. You'd have to wonder if she regrets not selecting Shapiro, which would have all but guaranteed a win in the state.
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Why would selecting Shapiro as VP “guarantee” a win in PA but Shapiro campaigning even more frequently in PA on Harris’s behalf while not on the ticket, not guarantee it?

I don’t think you have to wonder at all if Kamala regrets her VP pick. Her selection of Tim Walz has been even more resoundingly spectacular of a success than even the most hopeful and optimistic Democratic partisan could have envisioned.
 
CFordUNC said:
Why would selecting Shapiro as VP “guarantee” a win in PA but Shapiro campaigning even more frequently in PA on Harris’s behalf while not on the ticket, not guarantee it?

I don’t think you have to wonder at all if Kamala regrets her VP pick. Her selection of Tim Walz has been even more resoundingly spectacular of a success than even the most hopeful and optimistic Democratic partisan could have envisioned.
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Walz has been a home run. Shapiro is working his tail off to help in PA, and it wouldn’t make the slightest difference if he was on the ticket.
 
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