2024 Political Polls

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WaynetheDrain said:
I don't believe she's the underdog. I'm fine with her campaigning like she's the underdog, but I don't believe she is. And you're making an awful lot of assumptions on this hidden Trump element that's most likely already been baked into the new modelling.
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Respectfully. We are all making assumptions. As the polls relation to the actual vote turnout is functionally prognostication.

We have now seen Trump as a candidate in 2 elections. Where he has outperformed national polls (and key swing state polls) by 3-5 pts. This idea the “polls” will correct for this was the mantra in 2020.

And instead, the only actual difference was Biden’s polling lead pre-election was much larger. So he survived a 4 pt polling error. Where Hillary with a much smaller national polling lead could not.

Right now, my assumption seems far more grounded in what has actually been shown to be true about Trump’s coalition than the assumption polls “will account for this”

If you have a compelling and specific reason to understand why let’s say 5-10 national polling companies have solved the problem, I’m all ears. If instead, you merely assume they’ve been fixed, you are making an assumption you have a very good reason *not to make*.

I’d argue you are on the wrong side of the data driven prognostication argument.

Ultimately, there is what folks want to be true. And what is true. If the election was held today, she’d lose. She has time to make inroads in key demographics. I hope she does.
 
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lawtig02 said:
We don’t know Trump has that at all. You’re assuming polling methodology hasn’t changed since 2020. It’s certainly possible that will prove to be the case, but it’s far more likely the variance between polling and final results will be quite a bit different this time.
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Why? Wasn’t this the same argument 2016 to 2020? Harris has either small or vanishly small polling leads in key blue wall states.

I don’t mean to be an ass. Because I am not a statistician.

How have the polls variance to actual results been solved? Can anyone answer that with specificity. Until then, I’ll continue to assume that polls consistently underpoll Trump support. Because they have in 2 consecutive elections.

Why isn’t that a much more rational assumption than the idea “they’ve been fixed” without a single piece of information on how they have been fixed.
 
Paine said:
Take it from a young man in that demographic, there are a lot of angry young men under 30 who are going to vote for Trump. And of lot of their girlfriends and wives have been radicalized by the same garbage that they consume.
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Lots of angry young men, but a very unreliable voting bloc still.
 
Igs149 said:
Why? Wasn’t this the same argument 2016 to 2020? Harris has either small or vanishly small polling leads in key blue wall states.

I don’t mean to be an ass. Because I am not a statistician.

How have the polls variance to actual results been solved? Can anyone answer that with specificity. Until then, I’ll continue to assume that polls consistently underpoll Trump support. Because they have in 2 consecutive elections.

Why isn’t that a much more rational assumption than the idea “they’ve been fixed” without a single piece of information on how they have been fixed.
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This is a good summary of how polling is continuing to evolve.

www.pewresearch.org

Key things to know about U.S. election polling in 2024

Polls are more useful to the public if people have realistic expectations about what surveys can do well – and what they cannot.
www.pewresearch.org www.pewresearch.org

We won’t know until after the election if they “fixed” the issues from 2016 and 2020. It’s possible the underestimation of the Trump vote could be even worse this time around. But they’re not using the same methodology as in prior cycles, and many of the changes are intended to correct the problems from 2016 and 2020. These people are not infallible, but they are pros, and they want to get it right. That’s why I don’t think the good money would be on this being a repeat of 2020 as far as polling is concerned.
 
aGDevil2k said:



Also the MAGA celebration of the NYT poll is really interesting. They are celebrating like it's all over
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I've been skeptical of polls since the 2016 disaster, and they've been off in at least one area in pretty much every election since then. In 2018 they failed to see Democrats gaining 40 House seats, in 2020 they overestimated Biden's victory margin, and in 2022 they predicted a red wave that never really materialized. And since Roe v. Wade has been overturned they have also been underestimating the pro-choice vote by significant margins in many states. Even in 2012 Romney's internal polls showed him winning the election right up to election day, apparently. My own belief is that Democrats should run flat-out right until election day and should run as if they are behind the whole way. I don't think anyone in either party has any real idea of what is going to happen in this election, especially since Biden dropped out and Kamala became the candidate. The only thing I am fairly certain of is that the Democrats will likely win the national popular vote again, but of course that doesn't decide presidential elections, the Electoral College does. Just keep running flat-out until the election and campaign like your life depended on it, because maybe it does.
 
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TarHeelGrad said:
Run it up Herman. Leave no doubt!
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Make contact. When the ball carrier is within your reach, push off with your feet as hard as you can and use your legs to drive through your opponent. Drive your lead shoulder into the ball carrier's hips. Keep pushing and driving with your feet until the ball carrier goes down. Pick your knees up high in the driving motion, following through the tackle.

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RockyMtnHoo said:
I don’t for a second believe Trump is that close in the under 30 demographic.
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Much like Trump was making small but noticeable inroads with black folks, he's going to make inroads with young folks for many of the same reasons. The system doesn't work as well for black folks and young folks as it does for the rest of us. There's a contingent in both blocs who's willing to light it on fire and start over again. They see Trump as the kindling.

Now, what's curious about this point of view is that the post-explosion America isn't going to work better for them. But they're willing to take their chance in the chaos than live with further disappointment.

Democrats ignore/discount this phenomenon at their own peril.
 
WBroylesH said:
Much like Trump was making small but noticeable inroads with black folks, he's going to make inroads with young folks for many of the same reasons. The system doesn't work as well for black folks and young folks as it does for the rest of us. There's a contingent in both blocs who's willing to light it on fire and start over again. They see Trump as the kindling.

Now, what's curious about this point of view is that the post-explosion America isn't going to work better for them. But they're willing to take their chance in the chaos than live with further disappointment.

Democrats ignore/discount this phenomenon at their own peril.
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So they should appeal to the chaos crowd?
 
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