2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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Mulberry Heel said:
So right-wing polling groups may not be all that accurate and may be deliberately skewing results for Dear Leader? Say it isn't so!
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There may be a more serious legal issue, though would need an election law specialist to weigh in -- if third party non-profits are paying for the Rasmussen polls but Rassmusen is sharing them directly with the Trump campaign, that could be a political donation (potentially in violation of election law limits). Not that anyone will ever do anything about it even if that is the case, but worth noting.
 
nycfan said:
There may be a more serious legal issue, though would need an election law specialist to weigh in -- if third party non-profits are paying for the Rasmussen polls but Rassmusen is sharing them directly with the Trump campaign, that could be a political donation (potentially in violation of election law limits). Not that anyone will ever do anything about it even if that is the case, but worth noting.
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If that is the case then I would hope they would face legal issues, but I just don't find it at all surprising that at least some right-wing pollsters are privately doing all they can to help the Trump campaign and/or deliberately skewing results to make his numbers look better than they are.
 
just use the heelinhell calculator...

subtract 2 pts from the GQPer and add 2pts for the Dem and the poll will align with the legit polls...
 
nycfan said:
politicalwire.com

Harris Holds Small Leads Across the Swing States

A new set of Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls finds Kamala Harris "has all but neutralized Donald Trump’s advantage on economic issues, fueling an upbeat showing for the Democrat in battleground states." Arizona: Harris 50%, Trump 47% Michigan: Harris 50%, Trump 47% Nevada: Harris 52%, T
politicalwire.com politicalwire.com

A new set of Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls finds Kamala Harris “has all but neutralized Donald Trump’s advantage on economic issues, fueling an upbeat showing for the Democrat in battleground states.”


  • Arizona: Harris 50%, Trump 47%
  • Michigan: Harris 50%, Trump 47%
  • Nevada: Harris 52%, Trump 45%
  • North Carolina: Harris 50%, Trump 48%
  • Pennsylvania: Harris 51%, Trump 46%
  • Wisconsin: Harris 51%, Trump 48%
  • Georgia: Harris 49%, Trump 49%

Across all seven swing states, Harris holds a 50% to 47% lead over Trump.
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If she wins all seven swing states and blows him out… I might just dance naked in the streets.
 
nycfan said:
There may be a more serious legal issue, though would need an election law specialist to weigh in -- if third party non-profits are paying for the Rasmussen polls but Rassmusen is sharing them directly with the Trump campaign, that could be a political donation (potentially in violation of election law limits). Not that anyone will ever do anything about it even if that is the case, but worth noting.
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I'm not an election law specialist, but I would think it depends on the facts here. Specifically, are the non-profits in on the game? My guess is that the non-profits are not allowed to donate to campaigns. So if they paid for polls from Rasmussen with a wink and a "whatever you do, do not share this with the Trump campaign," then they could be part of a conspiracy to breach those restrictions.

If the non-profits didn't know about it, then I'm skeptical that there's an election law issue -- but skeptical is very far from certain. I mean, what is the thing of value there? The information? If the non-profit is going to use it for purely internal purposes, maybe. But if the non-profit is then going to turn around and release it to the public, it would seem the information itself is more or less free.

It seems like the reason the results were being shared was for the Trump people to know which polls to amplify in the media. That strikes me more as a "information is free" scenario. That's not to say that no laws have been broken, but I'm skeptical that those laws are 1) election laws and 2) broken by Trump's people -- unless, as noted above, the non-profits were in on the game and were thus basically paying for internal polls.
 
lawtig02 said:
I still don’t like his model, but I’m open to the possibility it gets much better the closer we get to the election.
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Well, the 538 model and Silver's model are showing the exact same odds right now. Well, not quite exact: Nate has it at 58-42, whereas 538 has it 58-41 (with some tiny potential for a tie). Showing identical results at one point in time, of course, isn't at all the same as being identical in general, but I imagine that the models are going to gradually converge and probably have been converging for some time. By the end, I would guess that the models are within 5 points of each other in terms of probability of a Kamala win.
 
superrific said:
Well, the 538 model and Silver's model are showing the exact same odds right now. Well, not quite exact: Nate has it at 58-42, whereas 538 has it 58-41 (with some tiny potential for a tie). Showing identical results at one point in time, of course, isn't at all the same as being identical in general, but I imagine that the models are going to gradually converge and probably have been converging for some time. By the end, I would guess that the models are within 5 points of each other in terms of probability of a Kamala win.
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That’s probably right. And shows I was stupid to pay any attention to the models before 50 days out in the first place.
 
aGDevil2k said:
So I shouldn't trust bracketology at this time??????
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Bracketology is never wrong. It's right there in the title. The study of brackets, which is a very, very old field. If you've ever been to a medieval cathedral in the gothic style, you'd know that brackets were mastered a millennium ago.

That's what you are talking about, right?
 
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