2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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Enigma94 said:
Does how Georgia votes somehow correlate to Pennsylvania/the blue wall? Seems off to me that a Georgia win gives Trump a 70% chance to win overall.
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It’s a reduction tool. If you click only that Trump wins Georgia, then it also predicts that Trump will win other states (like PA) and would win the election 73 of 100 times. But it you first pick Harris to win PA, then it predicts she wins 88 out of 100 times. I don’t follow how their model uses the one state to predict the rest.
 
I think if Harris wins Georgia, t's pretty much over. If Trump wins Georgia, Harris still has so many more ways to win. I think Pennsylvania will ultimately be the tipping point state and I think Harris will win Pennsylvania by 4 or 5 percent in the end.
 
EhringhausSouth said:
I think if Harris wins Georgia, t's pretty much over. If Trump wins Georgia, Harris still has so many more ways to win. I think Pennsylvania will ultimately be the tipping point state and I think Harris will win Pennsylvania by 4 or 5 percent in the end.
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I honestly don't understand how you're so confident. Harris winning PA by 4-5% is basically a landslide-type outcome. There is no polling that supports that.
 
RockyMtnHoo said:
I just don’t want a Harris victory to be 270-268, or come down to a Republican led state. I have zero faith in the Courts if either of those are the outcome.
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I’m convinced that even if Harris wins by a EV margin like FDR in 1936 or Reagan in 1984 the Republicans are going to try and steal the election. The Democrats need to be ready come November 6.
 
Patb78 said:
I’m convinced that even if Harris wins by a EV margin like FDR in 1936 or Reagan in 1984 the Republicans are going to try and steal the election. The Democrats need to be ready come November 6.
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Oh, I totally believe that. It’ll just be harder flipping multiple states than one, or even a single EC vote like Nebraska.
 
Enigma94 said:
Does how Georgia votes somehow correlate to Pennsylvania/the blue wall? Seems off to me that a Georgia win gives Trump a 70% chance to win overall.
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At some level, all states are correlated. But Georgia isn't as correlated with Pennsylvania as Wisconsin and Michigan are. And Georgia is much more correlated with NC than those 3 states.

If Trump wins Georgia, then that likely puts him just Pennsylvania away from taking the election. At that point, he has a very significant chance to win the presidency.
 
Until a "poll" comes out that guarantees what the voter turnout will be among Dems, GQPers, and Indys , I don't give a rat's a$$ about the polls
 
RockyMtnHoo said:
Oh, I totally believe that. It’ll just be harder flipping multiple states than one, or even a single EC vote like Nebraska.
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You are absolutely right. The actions of the GOP if trump loses are going to turn this election into a Mongolian clusterfuck. It is going to be close and they are going to target every state where they think they have a chance to flip it using whatever bull shit maneuvers they can come up with.
 
heelinhell said:
Until a "poll" comes out that guarantees what the voter turnout will be among Dems, GQPers, and Indys , I don't give a rat's a$$ about the polls
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Turnout follows very reliable and consistent patterns. There can be small turnout changes at the margin, but overall, if turnout increases for Kamala, it is likely to also increase for Trump and vice versa. If turnout were truly unpredictable, polls would be worthless. And experience demonstrates that polls tend to be quite good at predicting what will actually happen -- especially when considered in the aggregate.
 
Calheel said:
Turnout follows very reliable and consistent patterns. There can be small turnout changes at the margin, but overall, if turnout increases for Kamala, it is likely to also increase for Trump and vice versa. If turnout were truly unpredictable, polls would be worthless. And experience demonstrates that polls tend to be quite good at predicting what will actually happen -- especially when considered in the aggregate.
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Over the last 10 years, they have trended to be more worthless because turnout hasnt been predictable.
 
rodoheel said:
I honestly don't understand how you're so confident. Harris winning PA by 4-5% is basically a landslide-type outcome. There is no polling that supports that.
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I think we will see a serious polling error. I think it will be Dem/Harris +3 across the board from what current polls are saying. I think they are overestimating Trump support.
 
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