It’s a reduction tool. If you click only that Trump wins Georgia, then it also predicts that Trump will win other states (like PA) and would win the election 73 of 100 times. But it you first pick Harris to win PA, then it predicts she wins 88 out of 100 times. I don’t follow how their model uses the one state to predict the rest.
I honestly don't understand how you're so confident. Harris winning PA by 4-5% is basically a landslide-type outcome. There is no polling that supports that.
I’m convinced that even if Harris wins by a EV margin like FDR in 1936 or Reagan in 1984 the Republicans are going to try and steal the election. The Democrats need to be ready come November 6.
Oh, I totally believe that. It’ll just be harder flipping multiple states than one, or even a single EC vote like Nebraska.
At some level, all states are correlated. But Georgia isn't as correlated with Pennsylvania as Wisconsin and Michigan are. And Georgia is much more correlated with NC than those 3 states.
You are absolutely right. The actions of the GOP if trump loses are going to turn this election into a Mongolian clusterfuck. It is going to be close and they are going to target every state where they think they have a chance to flip it using whatever bull shit maneuvers they can come up with.
At least in what’s ordinarily a competitive state. I’m sure the R wins in a place like Alabama by 40+.
Turnout follows very reliable and consistent patterns. There can be small turnout changes at the margin, but overall, if turnout increases for Kamala, it is likely to also increase for Trump and vice versa. If turnout were truly unpredictable, polls would be worthless. And experience demonstrates that polls tend to be quite good at predicting what will actually happen -- especially when considered in the aggregate.
Over the last 10 years, they have trended to be more worthless because turnout hasnt been predictable.
I respectfully disagree. The polls aren't perfect (especially the biased ones) but they have been far more right than wrong.
I hope you’re right. But based on what? When have polls ever overestimated Trump support?
If I could know the result in advance and not have to live through the suspense, I’d love to see Trump and the Republicans deal with winning the popular vote but losing the election.
Trump wasn't on ballot in 2022. There is no evidence that polls overstate Trump support.