2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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Calheel said:
Ugh! It's not Bouzy data. You shared Bouzy spin. The data is from Pennsylvania and is available here: Elections Data | Voting & Election Information | Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and also from Target Smart, which is available here: The TargetSmart Voter Registration Dashboard - TargetSmart

Bouzy doesn't compare how those numbers compare to 2020, he just notes that D's hold a mail-in vote advantage, which is hardly news. He also notes that the D advantage for returned ballots is higher than the advantage for applied ballots, but simply gives raw percentages, without noting that it is less than 2% of the total vote at this time.
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I saw the damn data in his post. That's my point.
 
Paine said:
The fact that people think a social democrat should be that far left on any scale shows how skewed the political conversation in this country has become.
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Is Bernie not the furthest left mainstream politician in American politics?

I do agree that the political spectrum in the US has a general rightward shift when compared to other regions.
 
CRHeel94 said:
Think you’re way too high of a rating on Bernie. Think he’s about a 15. I’d probably put Biden at a 48. Think you have Mitt, Cruz and Rubio right.

Trump is a weird one. So many of his positions are diametrically opposed to what I’d consider the Reagan classic conservative positions on trade, foreign policy and immigration. Trump is just a political opportunist trying to take positions with the anti-system portion of the electorate.

Where would you put Obama?
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Slightly higher than Joe.
 
lightbluenc said:
My bad, its hard to type with intent, so any way it came off as snide or unhelpful, I apologize for. The 'do something' was because its exactly what Michelle Obama said for us to do when we start getting worried about polls and these things. And I agree worrying about it and doing something aren't mutually exclusive. I imagine we are in nearly the same position in terms of where we live demographically, and its disheartening to be completely surrounded by MAGA everywhere.
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I apologize as well. I'm just completely terrified of a Trump win and what it means for the country.
 
Calheel said:
Then link to the source data. Not Bouzy's spin. Every link to Bouzy is a link to a grifter.
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I'm not spending that much time sorry. If I see something interesting I will post it

If he truly is a grifter for anything other than Spoutible I've not seen it. He's pompous as all hell though.

Moving on that can be its own thread if you want to continue
 
aGDevil2k said:
I'm not spending that much time sorry. If I see something interesting I will post it

If he truly is a grifter for anything other than Spoutible I've not seen it. He's pompous as all hell though.

Moving on that can be its own thread if you want to continue
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Bot sentinel was a grift. Crypto was a grift. He is all about building his brand by latching onto controversial but popular topics (Depp/Heard, Meghan/Kate, Trump/anyone) and trying to monetize his out-of-the mainstream takes.

But fair enough. The Bouzy portion of this subreddit is now closed.
 
Not a poll, and certainly not scientific, but out of curiosity I drove around my neighborhood to count political signs. I broke it down into 6 categories: (1) homes with Harris signs, (2) homes with Trump signs, (3) homes with no signs for presidential candidates but with signs for other down ballot Dem candidates, (4) homes with no signs for presidential candidates but signs for other down ballot Pub candidates, (5) homes with no signs for presidential candidates but signs for candidates from both major parties, and (6) homes with signs for third party candidates only.

As for demographics of this neighborhood, it is in Charlotte. It is in the southeastern section of Charlotte, but is also pretty centrally located. It is very white. Almost all of the homeowners have a college degree, and a fairly large percentage likely have graduate degrees. I believe there are two precincts that cover this neighborhood, and they both went blue in the two previous presidential elections in which Trump was a candidate, with one being much bluer than the other (all but two precincts in all of Charlotte went blue in 2020).

First of all, the vast majority of homes— hundreds of them— have no political signs.

No homes have any signs for third party candidates and no homes have signs for candidates from both parties.

31 homes have Harris signs.

7 homes have Trump signs.

38 homes have signs for democratic candidates, but no signs for presidential candidates.

Only 2 homes have signs for republican candidates, but no signs for presidential candidates.

There is one house where the only political sign is an anti-Trump sign, which doesn’t necessarily fit into any of the 6 categories I came up with.
 
Icky Mettle said:
Not a poll, and certainly not scientific, but out of curiosity I drove around my neighborhood to count political signs. I broke it down into 6 categories: (1) homes with Harris signs, (2) homes with Trump signs, (3) homes with no signs for presidential candidates but with signs for other down ballot Dem candidates, (4) homes with no signs for presidential candidates but signs for other down ballot Pub candidates, (5) homes with no signs for presidential candidates but signs for candidates from both major parties, and (6) homes with signs for third party candidates only.

As for demographics of this neighborhood, it is in Charlotte. It is in the southeastern section of Charlotte, but is also pretty centrally located. It is very white. Almost all of the homeowners have a college degree, and a fairly large percentage likely have graduate degrees. I believe there are two precincts that cover this neighborhood, and they both went blue in the two previous presidential elections in which Trump was a candidate, with one being much bluer than the other (all but two precincts in all of Charlotte went blue in 2020).

First of all, the vast majority of homes— hundreds of them— have no political signs.

No homes have any signs for third party candidates and no homes have signs for candidates from both parties.

31 homes have Harris signs.

7 homes have Trump signs.

38 homes have signs for democratic candidates, but no signs for presidential candidates.

Only 2 homes have signs for republican candidates, but no signs for presidential candidates.

There is one house where the only political sign is an anti-Trump sign, which doesn’t necessarily fit into any of the 6 categories I came up with.
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So 69-7

Damn.

And yeah I figure all the non Harris but other Dem folks are Harris voters. Many Harris people, my whole family included, are a bit nervous of public signs because MAGAs are insane


8 years ago we thought they were deplorable but toothless

4 years ago we knew they were deplorable but deranged

Now we know they are insane and willing to fight


There IS a silent Harris voter
 
Icky Mettle said:
Not a poll, and certainly not scientific, but out of curiosity I drove around my neighborhood to count political signs. I broke it down into 6 categories: (1) homes with Harris signs, (2) homes with Trump signs, (3) homes with no signs for presidential candidates but with signs for other down ballot Dem candidates, (4) homes with no signs for presidential candidates but signs for other down ballot Pub candidates, (5) homes with no signs for presidential candidates but signs for candidates from both major parties, and (6) homes with signs for third party candidates only.

As for demographics of this neighborhood, it is in Charlotte. It is in the southeastern section of Charlotte, but is also pretty centrally located. It is very white. Almost all of the homeowners have a college degree, and a fairly large percentage likely have graduate degrees. I believe there are two precincts that cover this neighborhood, and they both went blue in the two previous presidential elections in which Trump was a candidate, with one being much bluer than the other (all but two precincts in all of Charlotte went blue in 2020).

First of all, the vast majority of homes— hundreds of them— have no political signs.

No homes have any signs for third party candidates and no homes have signs for candidates from both parties.

31 homes have Harris signs.

7 homes have Trump signs.

38 homes have signs for democratic candidates, but no signs for presidential candidates.

Only 2 homes have signs for republican candidates, but no signs for presidential candidates.

There is one house where the only political sign is an anti-Trump sign, which doesn’t necessarily fit into any of the 6 categories I came up with.
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I'm in ruby-red Trump country. I've seen VERY few Trump signs and no Harris signs. I've seen more school board signs than any other type.
 
Icky Mettle said:
Not a poll, and certainly not scientific, but out of curiosity I drove around my neighborhood to count political signs. I broke it down into 6 categories: (1) homes with Harris signs, (2) homes with Trump signs, (3) homes with no signs for presidential candidates but with signs for other down ballot Dem candidates, (4) homes with no signs for presidential candidates but signs for other down ballot Pub candidates, (5) homes with no signs for presidential candidates but signs for candidates from both major parties, and (6) homes with signs for third party candidates only.

As for demographics of this neighborhood, it is in Charlotte. It is in the southeastern section of Charlotte, but is also pretty centrally located. It is very white. Almost all of the homeowners have a college degree, and a fairly large percentage likely have graduate degrees. I believe there are two precincts that cover this neighborhood, and they both went blue in the two previous presidential elections in which Trump was a candidate, with one being much bluer than the other (all but two precincts in all of Charlotte went blue in 2020).

First of all, the vast majority of homes— hundreds of them— have no political signs.

No homes have any signs for third party candidates and no homes have signs for candidates from both parties.

31 homes have Harris signs.

7 homes have Trump signs.

38 homes have signs for democratic candidates, but no signs for presidential candidates.

Only 2 homes have signs for republican candidates, but no signs for presidential candidates.

There is one house where the only political sign is an anti-Trump sign, which doesn’t necessarily fit into any of the 6 categories I came up with.
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Since we are doing anecdotes, I canvased on Carolina Beach Saturday (not exactly a liberal bastion). The list I was working was specifically pulled from low propensity Dem voters and and Unaffiliated who have had as least some history of voting Dem in the past.

First off, I was shocked at how many folks were home and actually answered the door (43% of the list to be specific), which if you've done much canvasing, you know is bizarrely good.

But most significantly, this was the breakdown from those contacts:
  • Strong Dem: 16
  • Lean Dem: 4
  • Undecided: 1
  • Lean Rep: 1
Those are crazy good numbers for a round of canvassing. I've never experienced that before. Based on the my cautious optimism meter inched forward a hair, but I'm committed to "hair on fire work like your behind 10 points" right through election day.

As far as house signs go, probably 60/40 Rep/Dem here on the beach (though median/roadways signed probably run closer to 75/25 Rep/Dem). But I can say authoritative there are many Strong Dem households on the beach that aren't wild about putting a Dem sign out front. I don't think it's precisely because they are "scared" (though there is some of that), but more because they are going to have to go on living next door to all their neighbors after the election. I think a lot of Trump voters are (via self selection) pretty impervious to those sorts of considerations.
 
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