2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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Just like there were a bunch of silent Trump voters in 2016, I'm hoping there are just a bunch of silent, Kamala voters in 2024. My suburban neighborhood in Forsyth County has far more Trump signs than Kamala signs
 
I think a lot of people are worried about putting up Kamala signs. Our neighborhood in Greensboro doesn't allow yard signs, but I got a sticker for my car. I've been waiting to wash my car before I put it on, but my husband and our teenager really don't want me to. Some Trumpers are crazy.
 


I got the Nate Silver pollster rating spreadsheet, which has this pollster at a D+0.7 bias and rates them B-.
 
Bigs23 said:
It’s hard to imagine people going back to trump at this point.
I’m not sure what to do with the polls at this point. I’ve kind of decided they aren’t telling us a lot.
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What's the basis for that other than wishful thinking?

At this point, the polling data is slowly turning back to Trump. I don't really see any reason to believe the polls aren't accurate beyond things like Bigs posted "It's hard to imagine people going back to Trump" or "the polls are over-representing Trump support" or whatever). These aren't reasoned arguments, they're just wish-casting. I share the wishes, but not the confidence.
 
rodoheel said:
What's the basis for that other than wishful thinking?

At this point, the polling data is slowly turning back to Trump. I don't really see any reason to believe the polls aren't accurate beyond things like Bigs posted "It's hard to imagine people going back to Trump" or "the polls are over-representing Trump support" or whatever). These aren't reasoned arguments, they're just wish-casting. I share the wishes, but not the confidence.
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The polls haven't been accurate the last two election cycles. But I am really starting to worry.
 
It's October, so Democrats have commenced the pollercoaster panicking in earnest.

To be clear, I'm not trying to pretend to be all sanguine. While I do think Harris is going to win ultimately, I am certainly not 100% confident that she will. I am 100% confident that she *should* but certainly not 100% confident that she *will*. But I confess that I get annoyed by the pollercoaster panicking. From what I've read, right wing pollsters are flooding the zone with tons of shit right now, which are affecting the aggregate numbers.

Look, at the end of the day, the Democrats have done quite literally almost everything that they can do to win this election. They replaced the candidate that was dragging down the ticket. They've put together a very good ticket. They've run an almost flawless campaign for the last two months. They had a convention that was brilliant. They have raised jaw-dropping amounts of money. They have a grassroots volunteer effort that is unprecedented. They're presiding over a booming economy, plummeting crime rates, border crossings dropping, record low unemployment, inflation that has receded to the Fed's target, lowering prices, and strong geopolitical alliances. They have incumbency. They have quite literally every fundamental in their favor. They are running against the worst presidential candidate in American history, who was previously the most failed president in American history, who sits atop a historically unpopular ticket, and who has run a stupendously disastrous campaign.

If Trump pulls of the upset despite all of ^ that, it wouldn't be because the Democrats did anything wrong to lose the election. It would be because our society has been completely and irreparably overcome by foreign influence on our social media platforms that have fatally poisoned the American voting electorate.

All of that to say, Democrats need to spend these next four weeks acting like they are part of a winning campaign- because they are. That doesn't mean to get arrogant or complacent- it just means that Dems need to carry themselves with quiet confidence that they've done all of the work necessary to win the election, and to trust that all of that work will pay off.
 
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Paine said:
Not really the thread to discuss this, but I’d be curious to hear why billionaires should pay the same tax rate as someone barely making ends meet.
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Graduated tax rates under the present tax code don't work fairly. Billionaires have accountants and tax attorneys to shelter their income through deductions, exemptions and corporate tax breaks that are not available to average working Americans, so they can pay lower actual rates. A flat tax is also much easier to enforce. I'm still waiting for Trump's tax returns to be disclosed, as he promised in 2016.
 
dukeman92 said:
Brother you have no idea what I've been doing to get her message out and get people to vote for her. I've alienated family and friends in an effort to support and spread her message.

So fuck off.
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Fuck off? I'm not mad at you I'm trying to give you options so you aren't worrying geez. I was quoting Michelle Obama who said the same thing, should she fuck off?
 
CFordUNC said:
It's October, so Democrats have commenced the pollercoaster panicking in earnest.

To be clear, I'm not trying to pretend to be all sanguine. While I do think Harris is going to win ultimately, I am certainly not 100% confident that she will. I am 100% confident that she *should* but certainly not 100% confident that she *will*. But I confess that I get annoyed by the pollercoaster panicking. From what I've read, right wing pollsters are flooding the zone with tons of shit right now, which are affecting the aggregate numbers.

Look, at the end of the day, the Democrats have done quite literally almost everything that they can do to win this election. They replaced the candidate that was dragging down the ticket. They've put together a very good ticket. They've run an almost flawless campaign for the last two months. They had a convention that was brilliant. They have raised jaw-dropping amounts of money. They have a grassroots volunteer effort that is unprecedented. They're presiding over a booming economy, plummeting crime rates, border crossings dropping, record low unemployment, inflation that has receded to the Fed's target, lowering prices, and strong geopolitical alliances. They have incumbency. They have quite literally every fundamental in their favor. They are running against the worst presidential candidate in American history, who was previously the most failed president in American history, who sits atop a historically unpopular ticket, and who has run a stupendously disastrous campaign.

If Trump pulls of the upset despite all of ^ that, it wouldn't be because the Democrats did anything wrong to lose the election. It would be because our society has been completely and irreparably overcome by foreign influence on our social media platforms that have fatally poisoned the American voting electorate.

All of that to say, Democrats need to spend these next four weeks acting like they are part of a winning campaign- because they are. That doesn't mean to get arrogant or complacent- it just means that Dems need to carry themselves with quiet confidence that they've done all of the work necessary to win the election, and to trust that all of that work will pay off.
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I'm not interested in assigning any blame for anything. I'm not accusing anyone of strategic errors or anything - the time for that is after the election is over. Nor am I talking, in this thread, about the veritable flood of foreign misinformation ops flooding social media, especially Twitter with Musk's help and encouragement. Nor am I talking about what Dems need to do to win the election from here. I am simply noting that the polls are trending away from where we need to trend. YouGov is not a right-wing pollster "flooding the zone" and having their national polling at a dead heat is not a good sign. I don't think projecting confidence where it isn't warranted is the right approach.
 
rodoheel said:
What's the basis for that other than wishful thinking?

At this point, the polling data is slowly turning back to Trump. I don't really see any reason to believe the polls aren't accurate beyond things like Bigs posted "It's hard to imagine people going back to Trump" or "the polls are over-representing Trump support" or whatever). These aren't reasoned arguments, they're just wish-casting. I share the wishes, but not the confidence.
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There aren't people going back and forth. Not 4% of people. It's just random polling and they hope they get it right. They have no idea what turnout is but you aren't seeing the red alarms internally that were leaking out 8 years ago
 
rodoheel said:
I'm not interested in assigning any blame for anything. I'm not accusing anyone of strategic errors or anything - the time for that is after the election is over. Nor am I talking, in this thread, about the veritable flood of foreign misinformation ops flooding social media, especially Twitter with Musk's help and encouragement. Nor am I talking about what Dems need to do to win the election from here. I am simply noting that the polls are trending away from where we need to trend. YouGov is not a right-wing pollster "flooding the zone" and having their national polling at a dead heat is not a good sign. I don't think projecting confidence where it isn't warranted is the right approach.
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I hear ya for sure. I hope that mine didn’t come across as seeming like it was directed specifically at you. I promise it wasn’t!
 
lightbluenc said:
Fuck off? I'm not mad at you I'm trying to give you options so you aren't worrying geez. I was quoting Michelle Obama who said the same thing, should she fuck off?
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92 also lives in and is surrounded by deep magaville so I'm sure it's hard to comprehend that the population centers aren't nearly as trumpy with signs etc as they were 4 years ago
 
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