2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[lightbluenc]

92 also lives in and is surrounded by deep magaville so I'm sure it's hard to comprehend that the population centers aren't nearly as trumpy with signs etc as they were 4 years ago

Same. I'm in an area thats probably 70% red at least. Just didn't want to come off as if I was bashing them or anything. We all worry, just want to repeat what MO said about us turning to worry instead of turning to action.

 

[aGDevil2k]

OK, fair enough, but even when looking at the race and polling holistically Kamala is polling behind where Dems were in 2016.

Perhaps because a growing number of people who vote blue aren't answering phones

 

[UNCMSinLS]

OK, fair enough, but even when looking at the race and polling holistically Kamala is polling behind where Dems were in 2016.

I wonder how many right-leaning, right-owned polls are polling Kamala "behind where Dems were in 2016"? Hmm ....

I've said it before. I'll say it again. Polling in this country is garbage. Pay attention to registrations and actual voting - those count. Polls don't.

 

[Enigma94]

I have no idea if the current polls are accurate or not, but I certainly wouldn't compare today's polls to the ones in 2016. There have been tons of updates and modifications made since then.

 

[BillOfRights]

You may be right, but the current IRS Code is desperately in need of reform and not well enforced. I'd love to hear a better feasible solution.

Me, too.

 

[aGDevil2k]

I wonder how many right-leaning, right-owned polls are polling Kamala "behind where Dems were in 2016"? Hmm ....

I've said it before. I'll say it again. Polling in this country is garbage. Pay attention to registrations and actual voting - those count. Polls don't.

That's why I shared the Bouzy data from PA.

Like him or not it's a source of actual voting data for this year

 

[dukeman92]

Fuck off? I'm not mad at you I'm trying to give you options so you aren't worrying geez. I was quoting Michelle Obama who said the same thing, should she fuck off?

You laughed at my post and then told me to "do something"

You did not come off as trying to be helpful. At all.

Worrying about the outcome and actively trying to influence it aren't mutually exclusive.

 

[aGDevil2k]

 

[dukeman92]

92 also lives in and is surrounded by deep magaville so I'm sure it's hard to comprehend that the population centers aren't nearly as trumpy with signs etc as they were 4 years ago

I would say that my county is 75% red

 

[Calheel]

That's why I shared the Bouzy data from PA.

Like him or not it's a source of actual voting data for this year

Ugh! It's not Bouzy data. You shared Bouzy spin. The data is from Pennsylvania and is available here: Elections Data | Voting & Election Information | Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and also from Target Smart, which is available here: The TargetSmart Voter Registration Dashboard - TargetSmart

Bouzy doesn't compare how those numbers compare to 2020, he just notes that D's hold a mail-in vote advantage, which is hardly news. He also notes that the D advantage for returned ballots is higher than the advantage for applied ballots, but simply gives raw percentages, without noting that it is less than 2% of the total vote at this time.

 

[nycfan]

 

[SnoopRob]

 

[theel4life]

Ugh! It's not Bouzy data. You shared Bouzy spin. The data is from Pennsylvania and is available here: Elections Data | Voting & Election Information | Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and also from Target Smart, which is available here: The TargetSmart Voter Registration Dashboard - TargetSmart

Bouzy doesn't compare how those numbers compare to 2020, he just notes that D's hold a mail-in vote advantage, which is hardly news. He also notes that the D advantage for returned ballots is higher than the advantage for applied ballots, but simply gives raw percentages, without noting that it is less than 2% of the total vote at this time.

Oh y has been right about everything so far. The dude is good.

 

[lightbluenc]

You laughed at my post and then told me to "do something"

You did not come off as trying to be helpful. At all.

Worrying about the outcome and actively trying to influence it aren't mutually exclusive.

My bad, its hard to type with intent, so any way it came off as snide or unhelpful, I apologize for. The 'do something' was because its exactly what Michelle Obama said for us to do when we start getting worried about polls and these things. And I agree worrying about it and doing something aren't mutually exclusive. I imagine we are in nearly the same position in terms of where we live demographically, and its disheartening to be completely surrounded by MAGA everywhere.

 

[Calheel]

Oh y has been right about everything so far. The dude is good.

He hasn't been right about anything in his life. He is a scammer. Look, just because he is saying what you want to hear, doesn't make him less of a scammer. In fact, he sees people like you as an easy mark -- because you are so willing to believe what you want to believe.

 

[Calheel]

It’s hard to imagine people going back to trump at this point.
I’m not sure what to do with the polls at this point. I’ve kind of decided they aren’t telling us a lot.

When Kamala announced, she was largely a blank slate (not as blank as a Gretchen Whitmer, but that is water under the bridge). Generic democrats also perform better in polling than specifically-named democrats because generic democrats do not have any negatives.

Trump's negatives were baked in. Kamala's negatives were not. Over the past two months, the cumulative impact of negative advertising is taking its expected toll on Kamala. She is no longer benefitting from the generic politician advantage and now has specific negatives tied to her. As just one example, the Republicans have been running non-stop the "pay for prisoners to get reassignment surgery" advertisement. Now, that it is a false ad, but it is also an effective ad. It is chipping away at Kamala's generic advantage.

 

[rodoheel]

Crypto bros with a history of crypto scamminess are ALWAYS looking for the money angle.

By default I just assume anyone pushing or promoting anything crypto related is a scammer/grifter of some stripe.

 

[Mundial]

He hasn't been right about anything in his life. He is a scammer. Look, just because he is saying what you want to hear, doesn't make him less of a scammer. In fact, he sees people like you as an easy mark -- because you are so willing to believe what you want to believe.

Cal are you the RNC chair in Florida by any chance?

 

[Calheel]

Cal are you the RNC chair in Florida by any chance?

No, I have never voted for a Republican in a national election in my life, and I don't intend to start this year.

But I have zero patience for scam artists or the people who unwittingly promote scam artists.

 

[theel4life]

He hasn't been right about anything in his life. He is a scammer. Look, just because he is saying what you want to hear, doesn't make him less of a scammer. In fact, he sees people like you as an easy mark -- because you are so willing to believe what you want to believe.

You are wrong.