1moretimeagain
Esteemed Member
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If I could know the result in advance and not have to live through the suspense, I’d love to see Trump and the Republicans deal with winning the popular vote but losing the election.
2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden
- Thread starter nycfan
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Trump wasn't on ballot in 2022. There is no evidence that polls overstate Trump support.
quakerdevil
Distinguished Member
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No but 2022 was supposed to be a red wave. Polls said it would be. Then Roe was overturned. And that changed everything.
SmilingJack
Esteemed Member
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Magic telling black men they need to step up is not going to hurt!
The red wave talk was largely based on historical patterns and high inflation. Not really polls.
In fact, there is precious little polling on individual house races.
And if you look at 538, the numbers they predicted for Republican house seats wasn’t that far off from the actual number.
A more relevant analysis of polling accuracy is the 2020 presidential election. That is more of an apples to apples comparison. Although the national polling numbers were a bit too bullish for Biden, the individual state polls were pretty darn close - by and large. They got every state correct except for Florida and N.C.
National : President: general election : 2020 Polls
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
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SmilingJack
Esteemed Member
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It's the same bullshit but if it's what you want to hear then listen. My advice would be an "Awe Walk" as it really works.The red wave talk was largely based on historical patterns and high inflation. Not really polls.
In fact, there is precious little polling on individual house races.
And if you look at 538, the numbers they predicted for Republican house seats wasn’t that far off from the actual number.
A more relevant analysis of polling accuracy is the 2020 presidential election. That is more of an apples to apples comparison. Although the national polling numbers were a bit too bullish for Biden, the individual state polls were pretty darn close - by and large.
National : President: general election : 2020 Polls
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.projects.fivethirtyeight.com
How to Take An Awe Walk
Go out and find your own moments of awe. Listen to them carefully and see where they guide you. What you may find, in how they stir humility and wonder, is that they can point you toward finding new inspiration and deep meaning.
www.mindful.org
Mulberry Heel
Honored Member
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I wonder how they weight some of those groups. For example, are there really more rural than urban voters? I do wonder whether pollsters, having been burned by Trump voters in 2016 and 2020, may have overcompensated this time. I guess we'll see for sure in November.
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Maybe weighting toward rural voters adjusts for the electoral college advantage of rural states.
aGDevil2k
Iconic Member
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Christopher Bouzy on Spoutible
Now that we have early vote data, we can better understand what is happening on the ground in PA. In my opinion, early vote data is more reliable than polls. I successfully used ea
spoutible.com
Can we please institute a no Bouzy rule until Nov. 6?Christopher Bouzy on Spoutible
Now that we have early vote data, we can better understand what is happening on the ground in PA. In my opinion, early vote data is more reliable than polls. I successfully used ea
theel4life
Esteemed Member
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Bouzy is the man.