2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
  • Start date Start date
  • Replies: 6K
  • Views: 144K
  • Politics 
Calheel said:
Ugh! It's not Bouzy data. You shared Bouzy spin. The data is from Pennsylvania and is available here: Elections Data | Voting & Election Information | Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and also from Target Smart, which is available here: The TargetSmart Voter Registration Dashboard - TargetSmart

Bouzy doesn't compare how those numbers compare to 2020, he just notes that D's hold a mail-in vote advantage, which is hardly news. He also notes that the D advantage for returned ballots is higher than the advantage for applied ballots, but simply gives raw percentages, without noting that it is less than 2% of the total vote at this time.
Click to expand...
Oh y has been right about everything so far. The dude is good.
 
dukeman92 said:
You laughed at my post and then told me to "do something"

You did not come off as trying to be helpful. At all.

Worrying about the outcome and actively trying to influence it aren't mutually exclusive.
Click to expand...
My bad, its hard to type with intent, so any way it came off as snide or unhelpful, I apologize for. The 'do something' was because its exactly what Michelle Obama said for us to do when we start getting worried about polls and these things. And I agree worrying about it and doing something aren't mutually exclusive. I imagine we are in nearly the same position in terms of where we live demographically, and its disheartening to be completely surrounded by MAGA everywhere.
 
Calheel said:
He hasn't been right about anything in his life. He is a scammer. Look, just because he is saying what you want to hear, doesn't make him less of a scammer. In fact, he sees people like you as an easy mark -- because you are so willing to believe what you want to believe.
Click to expand...
Crypto bros with a history of crypto scamminess are ALWAYS looking for the money angle.
 
Bigs23 said:
It’s hard to imagine people going back to trump at this point.
I’m not sure what to do with the polls at this point. I’ve kind of decided they aren’t telling us a lot.
Click to expand...
When Kamala announced, she was largely a blank slate (not as blank as a Gretchen Whitmer, but that is water under the bridge). Generic democrats also perform better in polling than specifically-named democrats because generic democrats do not have any negatives.

Trump's negatives were baked in. Kamala's negatives were not. Over the past two months, the cumulative impact of negative advertising is taking its expected toll on Kamala. She is no longer benefitting from the generic politician advantage and now has specific negatives tied to her. As just one example, the Republicans have been running non-stop the "pay for prisoners to get reassignment surgery" advertisement. Now, that it is a false ad, but it is also an effective ad. It is chipping away at Kamala's generic advantage.
 
Calheel said:
He hasn't been right about anything in his life. He is a scammer. Look, just because he is saying what you want to hear, doesn't make him less of a scammer. In fact, he sees people like you as an easy mark -- because you are so willing to believe what you want to believe.
Click to expand...
Cal are you the RNC chair in Florida by any chance?
 
Mundial said:
Cal are you the RNC chair in Florida by any chance?
Click to expand...
No, I have never voted for a Republican in a national election in my life, and I don't intend to start this year.

But I have zero patience for scam artists or the people who unwittingly promote scam artists.
 
Calheel said:
He hasn't been right about anything in his life. He is a scammer. Look, just because he is saying what you want to hear, doesn't make him less of a scammer. In fact, he sees people like you as an easy mark -- because you are so willing to believe what you want to believe.
Click to expand...
You are wrong.
 
Calheel said:
Ugh! It's not Bouzy data. You shared Bouzy spin. The data is from Pennsylvania and is available here: Elections Data | Voting & Election Information | Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and also from Target Smart, which is available here: The TargetSmart Voter Registration Dashboard - TargetSmart

Bouzy doesn't compare how those numbers compare to 2020, he just notes that D's hold a mail-in vote advantage, which is hardly news. He also notes that the D advantage for returned ballots is higher than the advantage for applied ballots, but simply gives raw percentages, without noting that it is less than 2% of the total vote at this time.
Click to expand...
I saw the damn data in his post. That's my point.
 
Paine said:
The fact that people think a social democrat should be that far left on any scale shows how skewed the political conversation in this country has become.
Click to expand...
Is Bernie not the furthest left mainstream politician in American politics?

I do agree that the political spectrum in the US has a general rightward shift when compared to other regions.
 
CRHeel94 said:
Is Bernie not the furthest left mainstream politician in American politics?

I do agree that the political spectrum in the US has a general rightward shift when compared to other regions.
Click to expand...
I mean, if you include “mainstream” in your description, you aren’t going to get very far left in the United States.

But yes, I think Bernie would be the furthest left mainstream politician in American politics. That says a lot about American politics/elections, because the vast majority of Bernie’s policies are supported by a majority of Americans, some by quite large majorities. Makes you wonder why there aren’t more Bernies, huh?

American politics is downright hostile to anything further left than Bernie, more so than they are to actual fascists IMO. It wasn’t too long ago that Bernie himself was seen as a pariah (some people try to pretend that he still is, despite the fact that he is consistently one of the most popular politicians in the United States).

This narrowing of the discourse is deliberate, and it helps produce/reproduce the outcomes that we are discussing here. The rich and powerful in the United States want nothing more than for Bernie to be seen as so far left as to be beyond the pale. Meanwhile, a lot of the same folks rehabilitate fascists and far-right figures. That would fit their financial incentive.
 
Paine said:
American politics is downright hostile to anything further left than Bernie, more so than they are to actual fascists IMO.
Click to expand...
I don’t think that has to be couched as an opinion - appears pretty objective, given our state of play.
 
CRHeel94 said:
Think you’re way too high of a rating on Bernie. Think he’s about a 15. I’d probably put Biden at a 48. Think you have Mitt, Cruz and Rubio right.

Trump is a weird one. So many of his positions are diametrically opposed to what I’d consider the Reagan classic conservative positions on trade, foreign policy and immigration. Trump is just a political opportunist trying to take positions with the anti-system portion of the electorate.

Where would you put Obama?
Click to expand...
Slightly higher than Joe.
 
lightbluenc said:
My bad, its hard to type with intent, so any way it came off as snide or unhelpful, I apologize for. The 'do something' was because its exactly what Michelle Obama said for us to do when we start getting worried about polls and these things. And I agree worrying about it and doing something aren't mutually exclusive. I imagine we are in nearly the same position in terms of where we live demographically, and its disheartening to be completely surrounded by MAGA everywhere.
Click to expand...

I apologize as well. I'm just completely terrified of a Trump win and what it means for the country.
 
Calheel said:
Then link to the source data. Not Bouzy's spin. Every link to Bouzy is a link to a grifter.
Click to expand...
I'm not spending that much time sorry. If I see something interesting I will post it

If he truly is a grifter for anything other than Spoutible I've not seen it. He's pompous as all hell though.

Moving on that can be its own thread if you want to continue
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top