2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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dukeman92 said:
Obviously is he were to win one of those blue wall states there would be correlation. I thought that went without saying. Either way, I stand by my statement. If she loses one of those states, she's likely toast.
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Well, it depends on what you were asking. You know that game people play with the "interactive maps" that allow you to mark states as red or blue? That's not correlative. That's one possible interpretation of what your point. The other is a Bayesian inquiry of "what is the probability of Kamala winning given she loses a blue wall state?" I only asked for clarification.

Remember, though: correlation can work both ways. The fact that Kamala appears to be in the lead in all three of those states means that the states aren't truly coin flips. She has the lead there. So her chances of losing one of the three is not all that high, and would probably require a systemic polling miss. The winning scenarios for Trump are 1) the polls are wrong (and if so, then polls shouldn't give you heartburn) or 2) Michigan, PA, and WI are all super-close, with margins of victory that are essentially just noise (which would be closer than in 2020 in those states), and also NC and GA are not that close.
 
superrific said:
Well, according to the forecasting models, if Trump wins PA, he's going to win the election 85% of the time. For Mi and WI it's more like 75%. Still formidable numbers.

BUT that's taking into account correlation. That is, of those scenarios in which Trump wins PA and wins the election, the majority of them would have him taking other states as well.

It's not clear what you're predicting here. Are you talking about "if Trump wins a blue wall state, then he will likely overperform his polls in NC and AZ as well and take them"? Or are you talking about "all else equal, if Trump wins a blue wall state, he will win"? Because I don't agree with that. WI is not that valuable a prize. If Kamala loses WI, she can make that up by winning GA, AZ or NC. I think that's true for MI as well for NC and GA. So if you're not talking about correlation, then Kamala losing WI in a coin flip would result in her winning the presidency about 65-75% of the time because she would be unlikely to lose GA, NC AND AZ in coin flips.

PA is the biggest issue because it can't be replaced by another state. Losing PA means Kamala has to win NV plus one of the other states.
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My 1970s kid self would be astonished to know I am saying this in 2024, but I’m relying on Polish (and Ukrainian and Baltic) descended PA voters to save us there this cycle.
 
I tend to think that Agdevilk gets it....hmmm, agreeing with a Dookie...meaning that voter enthusiasm and turnout are key and it's not clear that the polls are accurately capturing that sentiment.
 
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Calheel said:
Right. Cubans have been steadfast Republicans voters since the 1980s. It is the non-Cuban Latino population that has changed voting patterns.
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Univision is the main cable TV and it skews way right. And it’s really all about the Catholic Church and stances against abortion, contraception, etc… they are anti LGBTQ, and pro” family values” and all of that. It’s not surprising at all and very predictable. Of course the Cubans here are simply anti Castro and anti anything to do with Socialism, communism, etc. And the Cubans are huge racists. God forbid you “mistake” a Cubano for a Mexican or Dominican…. Or any other Latin American for that matter. Argentina is the same way.
There’s also a significant portion of the African American community which is the same way. (Anti abortion/LGBTQ) Not Catholic of course, but just the same. Loads of folks just can’t get past that stuff.
 
Seems as if I want the polling to be close and show Harris behind by just a little going into the last weeks. Seems as if it may motivate some of her voters to make sure they vote. Seems as if some of the polling in 2016 led to a false sense of security for some would be Hillary voters. Some stayed home, voted 3rd party, wrote in Bernie, etc.

Of course I could be way off base, but that’s just how it seems.
 
superrific said:
That's one of the effects, but it's not necessarily crazies. The demographic most supportive of Trump is white men 55+. Well, who are the people who retire to Florida? Crazy or not, the migration is going to end up funneling Trump support to Florida.
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We’re saying the same thing
 
1moretimeagain said:
The recent polls don’t have me feeling warm and fuzzy. I’m feeling more hot and itchy.
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Same here. I don't like the way the swing states, the Blue Wall states in particular, are tightening up and trending towards Trump, even if Harris is still up in them on 538.
 
She is going to have to get back to presenting herself as the change candidate...quickly. The answer she gave on The View where she couldn't think of anything she'd do differently from Biden, AND said that she has been closely involved in most major decisions, was a monumental mistake.

Less than 30% of the country consistently says its going in the right direction, so she needs to lean more into how she will offer a new way forward. It's time to stop hobnobbing with neocons, getting so cozy to big business and take at least a somewhat tougher stance on Israel. If she doesn't make these adjustments, I think just enough enthusiasm will decline to where she doesn't turn out enough of the base.
 
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uncjhodges said:
75021799301__90A2FEBB-F1F6-4CB9-BD17-4A0D8D599E33.jpeg
Just absurd framing by the times
“trump invokes his long held fascination with genetics”
Fuck these guys, he’s going to win

edit: this was supposed to go in the media/politics thread but still fuck them
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Weird, because if you click on the link, you get this:

Trump’s Remarks on Migrants Illustrate His Obsession With Genes​

Which isn't 100% different but has a distinctly different tone.
 
fsclark1 said:
She is going to have to get back to presenting herself as the change candidate...quickly. The answer she gave on The View where she couldn't think of anything she'd do differently from Biden, AND said that she has been closely involved in all major decisions, was a monumental mistake.

Less than 30% of the country consistently says its going in the right direction, so she needs to lean more into how she will offer a new way forward. It's time to stop hobnobbing with neocons, getting so cozy to big business and take at least a somewhat tougher stance on Israel. If she doesn't make these adjustments, I think just enough enthusiasm will decline to where she doesn't turn out enough of the base.
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This campaign has been amazing from Day One. I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt that they know what they are doing.

If she had named something that she did differently from Biden, then that story would be the focus of the media for a week. And that will be a perceived weak spot, of course, because why would Kamala break from Biden?
 
Can you say "Russia Racist Rubes"?
Of course the Putin crowd is pushing kill yourself for the Orange leader? They are sucking it up without any sense of hypocrisy or empathy. But it's not a cult....
ETA
Super you are really going to boside Kamala and Beetlejuice over an actual interview? Check yourself.
 
WaynetheDrain said:
Any of you guys disappointed in Kamala for not throwing Biden under the bus don't really understand who Kamala Harris is.
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Well, I wasn't wanting Kamala to throw Biden under the bus. I think there would have been a way to answer that question on the view by actually accentuating the best and most popular things Biden has done in his administration, while taking the opportunity to show how she would go in a different or new direction on other issues, without any particular negative language or clear disapproval.

I get that it wasn't an easy question, but some smart answers to difficult questions like that can bolster her bona fides as a change candidate, since that had been working well for her earlier in the campaign.
 
fsclark1 said:
Well, I wasn't wanting Kamala to throw Biden under the bus. I think there would have been a way to answer that question on the view by actually accentuating the best and most popular things Biden has done in his administration, while taking the opportunity to show how she would go in a different or new direction on other issues, without any particular negative language or clear disapproval.

I get that it wasn't an easy question, but some smart answers to difficult questions like that can bolster her bona fides as a change candidate, since that had been working well for her earlier in the campaign.
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Agree with this^^^
 
fsclark1 said:
She is going to have to get back to presenting herself as the change candidate...quickly. The answer she gave on The View where she couldn't think of anything she'd do differently from Biden, AND said that she has been closely involved in most major decisions, was a monumental mistake.
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This is an example of the ridiculously high double standard Harris is held to. She doesn’t separate herself from a role she’s held for 4 years, or throw her boss under the bus…a boss who has a stellar record..and it’s a monumental mistake.

Trump shits on the Constitution and the foundation of our democracy daily, has the self control of a crazy/senile/racist/drunk uncle, and does & says things regularly that would have killed any other candidates’ chances years ago, and his polling improves.

Americans suck.
 
RockyMtnHoo said:
This is an example of the ridiculously high double standard Harris is held to. She doesn’t separate herself from a role she’s held for 4 years, or throw her boss under the bus…a boss who has a stellar record..and it’s a monumental mistake.

Trump shits on the Constitution and the foundation of our democracy daily, has the self control of a crazy/senile/racist/drunk uncle, and does & says things regularly that would have killed any other candidates’ chances years ago, and his polling improves.

Americans suck.
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His “polling” is BS.
 
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