2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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aGDevil2k said:
Can we really just not get into the Bouzy shit? It's been debated about 50 pages by now.

Meanwhile:

www.dailykos.com

Media Polls are Garbage. Good News Edition

I am going to make this quick. Politico just received an internal memo from the Senate Republicans that can be politely described as putting lipstick on a pig. This was released to possible donors to induce them to donate to Senate Republican...
www.dailykos.com

Interesting POV. I do imagine if she only loses by Ohio by 4, she's winning the race.
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As someone from Ohio I agree
 
SmilingJack said:
"It's the economy stupid!" If this still resonates should be a landslide.
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If you were paying $2 per gallon of milk under Trump, and are not paying $3 (just making numbers up), and your wages haven't noticeably gone up, you may not think that the economy is better. Yes, all metrics indicate that it IS better, but if your own personal situation doesn't reflect that, touting the economy may not resonate with you. It is absolutely THOSE voters that Democrats need to reach.
 
TarHeelGrad said:
If you were paying $2 per gallon of milk under Trump, and are not paying $3 (just making numbers up), and your wages haven't noticeably gone up, you may not think that the economy is better. Yes, all metrics indicate that it IS better, but if your own personal situation doesn't reflect that, touting the economy may not resonate with you. It is absolutely THOSE voters that Democrats need to reach.
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You can't reach them if they aren't receptive to the message. It's not like there haven't been some serious filtering and distortions put in place by the disloyal opposition. It's that whole "You can lead a horse to water.." thing.

It's not that you're wrong but the reality is that you have to focus on the ROI because time and resources run out.
 
TarHeelGrad said:
If you were paying $2 per gallon of milk under Trump, and are not paying $3 (just making numbers up), and your wages haven't noticeably gone up, you may not think that the economy is better. Yes, all metrics indicate that it IS better, but if your own personal situation doesn't reflect that, touting the economy may not resonate with you. It is absolutely THOSE voters that Democrats need to reach.
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I think you're right in that people tend to have fairly myopic views of how the economy is doing, based on their own personal circumstances and feelings. But I don't really know how Dems are supposed to reach people who are still firmly convinced that the economy is bad, especially because those opinions are based as much on vibes/bias as on any objective facts. How are Dems going to convince these people who insist that their grocery and gas bills are far higher, that it really isn't the case?
 
rodoheel said:
I think you're right in that people tend to have fairly myopic views of how the economy is doing, based on their own personal circumstances and feelings. But I don't really know how Dems are supposed to reach people who are still firmly convinced that the economy is bad, especially because those opinions are based as much on vibes/bias as on any objective facts. How are Dems going to convince these people who insist that their grocery and gas bills are far higher, that it really isn't the case?
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Agree. Some people really have been hurt by the relatively high levels of inflation from 2021-23. But there are a ton of people who are actually ahead because of wage growth, etc., but THINK they’ve been hurt because their media sources have been telling them incessantly that they’ve been hurt. That latter group is probably unreachable at this point.
 
rodoheel said:
I think you're right in that people tend to have fairly myopic views of how the economy is doing, based on their own personal circumstances and feelings. But I don't really know how Dems are supposed to reach people who are still firmly convinced that the economy is bad, especially because those opinions are based as much on vibes/bias as on any objective facts. How are Dems going to convince these people who insist that their grocery and gas bills are far higher, that it really isn't the case?
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You say something to the effect of "The economy is strong, but we are all too aware that the benefits of this strong economy are not being shared equally amongst all who have contributed to it. Too frequently corporations and billionaires take the windfall and refuse to pass along even the small amounts that they had promised would "trickle down" to the workers who make their success possible. Our administration will make sure that you and your family feel the benefit of the improved economy by making the rich pay their fair share in taxes, to provide for things like health care and child care and housing credits for you and other working-class families."
 
rodoheel said:
I think you're right in that people tend to have fairly myopic views of how the economy is doing, based on their own personal circumstances and feelings. But I don't really know how Dems are supposed to reach people who are still firmly convinced that the economy is bad, especially because those opinions are based as much on vibes/bias as on any objective facts. How are Dems going to convince these people who insist that their grocery and gas bills are far higher, that it really isn't the case?
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You can't. People look at bread, milk, eggs and gas prices. That's it. And Americans are fairly dim bulbs when it comes to: "Oh, that's right, Pandemic and supply chain shortages + corporate price gouging jacked up those prices (and it had fuck-all to do with Biden/Harris)." They have no critical thinking skills and can't add all that together and ALSO add in higher wages now, and the fact THE ENTIRE FUCKING WORLD is going through (and has gone through) inflation, AND the U.S. has OUT PERFORMED THE ENTIRE WORLD in battling this under Biden/Harris. At least half the Nation can't analyze all this. All of that plus they are sheeple and believe what right wing media and Der Führer tell them to believe.

There is no "Dems going to convince these people..." otherwise. It's a total impossibility
 
StrangePackage said:
You say something to the effect of "The economy is strong, but we are all too aware that the benefits of this strong economy are not being shared equally amongst all who have contributed to it. Too frequently corporations and billionaires take the windfall and refuse to pass along even the small amounts that they had promised would "trickle down" to the workers who make their success possible. Our administration will make sure that you and your family feel the benefit of the improved economy by making the rich pay their fair share in taxes, to provide for things like health care and child care and housing credits for you and other working-class families."
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Great speech, but I really doubt it's going to sway anyone. These are people who, by definition, aren't thinking about this logically. The immediate response will be "you're already in charge."
 
AARP:

"...
  • Former President Donald Trump (R) leads Vice President Kamala Harris (D) by one percentage point in the head-to-head presidential matchup in Michigan. Trump maintains this one-point lead among voters 50 and older; though he leads by eleven points among 50- to 64-year-olds, Harris leads among voters 65 and older, also by eleven points. Harris has picked up three points since the first AARP Michigan voter poll, which was published in August.

www.aarp.org

In Michigan, Presidential and U.S. Senate Races Extremely Close

<p>Michigan voters 50-plus are the most committed age group for voting in the 2024 election and appear to be on track to decide in the upcoming elections.</p>
www.aarp.org www.aarp.org

They have the MI Senate race D+3
 
Of note for the AARP poll:

"AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) to conduct a survey of voters in Michigan. The firms interviewed 1,382 likely voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, an oversample of 470 likely voters age 50 and older, and an additional oversample of 312 Black likely voters age 50 and older. The survey was conducted between October 2 and 8, 2024 via live interviewer on landline (25%) and cellphone (35%), as well as SMS-to-web (40%). The sample was randomly drawn from the Michigan voter list."
 
TIPP Tracking Poll [Red Poll most famous for predicting Trump would win +2 in 2016 -- they were wrong about the national margin but have gotten a ton of credibility on the right especially for getting the electoral outcome correct even if the margin was way off]

tippinsights.com

TIPP Tracking Poll Day 1: Harris Holds Narrow 3-Point Lead Over Trump

Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in the national popular vote, with 49% to 46%, according to the latest TIPP tracking poll of 1,212 likely voters conducted online from Friday, October 11 to Sunday, October 13. This is the first release of
tippinsights.com tippinsights.com
 
nycfan said:
AARP:

"...
  • Former President Donald Trump (R) leads Vice President Kamala Harris (D) by one percentage point in the head-to-head presidential matchup in Michigan. Trump maintains this one-point lead among voters 50 and older; though he leads by eleven points among 50- to 64-year-olds, Harris leads among voters 65 and older, also by eleven points. Harris has picked up three points since the first AARP Michigan voter poll, which was published in August.

www.aarp.org

In Michigan, Presidential and U.S. Senate Races Extremely Close

<p>Michigan voters 50-plus are the most committed age group for voting in the 2024 election and appear to be on track to decide in the upcoming elections.</p>
www.aarp.org www.aarp.org

They have the MI Senate race D+3
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AARP only polls 50+?
 
lawtig02 said:
Agree. Some people really have been hurt by the relatively high levels of inflation from 2021-23. But there are a ton of people who are actually ahead because of wage growth, etc., but THINK they’ve been hurt because their media sources have been telling them incessantly that they’ve been hurt. That latter group is probably unreachable at this point.
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I think the other problem with trying to emphasize wage growth alongside an admission of inflation is that folks think they earn the wage increases, but they see inflation as a problem caused by others (namely, the government).

It's a hard line for Harris to walk because while the macroeconomy is doing about as well as can be expected, a lot of folks' household budgets aren't doing so well. Add in that, for some reason, there are a lot of folks who think Trump left office in February 2020 and bears no responsibility for COVID, it makes a tough sell for Harris to reach voters on this issue.
 
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