2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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nycfan said:


A Mystery $30 Million Wave of Pro-Trump Bets Has Moved a Popular Prediction Market​

Four Polymarket accounts have systematically placed frequent wagers on a Trump election victory​


“…
Trump’s gains on Polymarket have cheered his supporters, and they have been followed by the odds shifting in Trump’s favor in other betting markets. Elon Musk flagged Trump’s growing lead on Polymarket to his 200 million X followers on Oct. 6, praising the concept of betting markets. “More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line,” Musk posted.

But the surge might be a mirage manufactured by a group of four Polymarket accounts that have collectively pumped about $30 million of crypto into bets that Trump will win.

“There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity,” said Miguel Morel, chief executive of Arkham Intelligence, a blockchain analysis firm that examined the accounts.

… The accounts betting big on Trump—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie—were all funded by deposits from Kraken, a U.S.-based crypto exchange, according to Arkham. They behave in a similar fashion, systematically placing frequent bets on Trump and stepping up the size of their bets at the same time, Arkham found. The oldest of the accounts was created in June, while the newest was created this month.

The accounts have plowed most of their money into straightforward bets on Trump’s winning the presidency, but they have also put millions of dollars into bets that he will win such swing states as Pennsylvania, as well as long-shot bets on Trump’s winning the popular vote—smaller side markets also available on Polymarket.

Adam Cochran, a veteran crypto investor who has monitored the activity on Polymarket, said the betting spree appears to be an attempt to generate a sense of momentum for Trump going into Election Day. If Trump loses, his favorable odds in the betting markets could bolster arguments that the election was stolen from him, said Cochran, who described himself as a right-of-center voter backing Harris …”
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Yea, Trump's got a really solid lead, so no need for any of you on-the-fencers need to pull the trigger for him. Keep Harris out of office *and* get to say "I didn't vote for him" at the same time!
 
lawtig02 said:
I think, but am not sure, the "firewall" goal is what the Dems think they need in early voting to maintain an advantage during the Election Day vote.
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+400K seems crazy high to reach.

“NPA” probably means “ no party affiliation”
 
My wife's hairdresser died but posted on facebook that she voted for Harris about a week by mail before her death
 
4heels4evr said:
My wife's hairdresser died but posted on facebook that she voted for Harris about a week by mail before her death
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Two points:
1. I assume she posted on Facebook before she died.
2. You have to be alive on November 5, 2024 for you vote to count, regardless of when you voted by absentee ballot or early voting.
 
lawtig02 said:
I think, but am not sure, the "firewall" goal is what the Dems think they need in early voting to maintain an advantage during the Election Day vote.
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I think it means they feel very safe on election day.

And if they are already over 70% yeah it's feasible they reach it
 
aGDevil2k said:
I think it means they feel very safe on election day.

And if they are already over 70% yeah it's feasible they reach it
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As much of a political junkie as I am, I can't imagine being part of a campaign data team. The way they slice and dice data is truly phenomenal. I know Obama's team knew what their margins needed to be in certain precincts to have a decent chance of winning.
 
lawtig02 said:
As much of a political junkie as I am, I can't imagine being part of a campaign data team. The way they slice and dice data is truly phenomenal. I know Obama's team knew what their margins needed to be in certain precincts to have a decent chance of winning.
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yeah no kidding. Data wonks like madmen! I know some here dont like Bouzy but I remember his precinct breakdown and that was fascinating in 2000

Anyhow my guess is if they really have called 400K the firewall, that would mean maybe 300K is dicey and 350 they feel good but not totally safe. Something like that. But firewall is like "yeah you cant pass us" - now of course, if more GOPers are voting early...that would then lower that number. So I question whomever put it out there
 
aGDevil2k said:
yeah no kidding. Data wonks like madmen! I know some here dont like Bouzy but I remember his precinct breakdown and that was fascinating in 2000

Anyhow my guess is if they really have called 400K the firewall, that would mean maybe 300K is dicey and 350 they feel good but not totally safe. Something like that. But firewall is like "yeah you cant pass us" - now of course, if more GOPers are voting early...that would then lower that number. So I question whomever put it out there
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I suspect the "firewall" is referring to the goals they have in the firewall states.

I don't understand the metric, though. Who cares about ballots requested? What matters is the number returned. Obviously you can't get a ballot returned if it's not sent out in the first place, but the mere requesting of the ballot doesn't seem all that informative.

But I'll leave those issues to the pros.
 
05C40 said:
In North Carolina, the vote counts if the challenge is made after the ballot has been removed from the envelope because once separated, there is no way to associate the ballot with the envelope that identifies the voter. If a challenge is received before the envelope and ballot are separated, then the ballot does not count.
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So there will be a Republican with every dead person's name sitting there watching.
 
Hey people. 538's forecast just flipped. It went from Kamala with a 53-55% chance to Trump with a 52% chance. This is, of course, mostly meaningless. IT's a 5% shift in odds, which is nothing.

It does seem as though the red wave polls are making a difference in their polling average. Trump does very well among the pollsters with low ratings.
 
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