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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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My wife's hairdresser died but posted on facebook that she voted for Harris about a week by mail before her death
 
4heels4evr said:
My wife's hairdresser died but posted on facebook that she voted for Harris about a week by mail before her death
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Two points:
1. I assume she posted on Facebook before she died.
2. You have to be alive on November 5, 2024 for you vote to count, regardless of when you voted by absentee ballot or early voting.
 
lawtig02 said:
I think, but am not sure, the "firewall" goal is what the Dems think they need in early voting to maintain an advantage during the Election Day vote.
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I think it means they feel very safe on election day.

And if they are already over 70% yeah it's feasible they reach it
 
aGDevil2k said:
I think it means they feel very safe on election day.

And if they are already over 70% yeah it's feasible they reach it
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As much of a political junkie as I am, I can't imagine being part of a campaign data team. The way they slice and dice data is truly phenomenal. I know Obama's team knew what their margins needed to be in certain precincts to have a decent chance of winning.
 
lawtig02 said:
As much of a political junkie as I am, I can't imagine being part of a campaign data team. The way they slice and dice data is truly phenomenal. I know Obama's team knew what their margins needed to be in certain precincts to have a decent chance of winning.
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yeah no kidding. Data wonks like madmen! I know some here dont like Bouzy but I remember his precinct breakdown and that was fascinating in 2000

Anyhow my guess is if they really have called 400K the firewall, that would mean maybe 300K is dicey and 350 they feel good but not totally safe. Something like that. But firewall is like "yeah you cant pass us" - now of course, if more GOPers are voting early...that would then lower that number. So I question whomever put it out there
 
aGDevil2k said:
yeah no kidding. Data wonks like madmen! I know some here dont like Bouzy but I remember his precinct breakdown and that was fascinating in 2000

Anyhow my guess is if they really have called 400K the firewall, that would mean maybe 300K is dicey and 350 they feel good but not totally safe. Something like that. But firewall is like "yeah you cant pass us" - now of course, if more GOPers are voting early...that would then lower that number. So I question whomever put it out there
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I suspect the "firewall" is referring to the goals they have in the firewall states.

I don't understand the metric, though. Who cares about ballots requested? What matters is the number returned. Obviously you can't get a ballot returned if it's not sent out in the first place, but the mere requesting of the ballot doesn't seem all that informative.

But I'll leave those issues to the pros.
 
05C40 said:
In North Carolina, the vote counts if the challenge is made after the ballot has been removed from the envelope because once separated, there is no way to associate the ballot with the envelope that identifies the voter. If a challenge is received before the envelope and ballot are separated, then the ballot does not count.
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So there will be a Republican with every dead person's name sitting there watching.
 
Hey people. 538's forecast just flipped. It went from Kamala with a 53-55% chance to Trump with a 52% chance. This is, of course, mostly meaningless. IT's a 5% shift in odds, which is nothing.

It does seem as though the red wave polls are making a difference in their polling average. Trump does very well among the pollsters with low ratings.
 
superrific said:
Hey people. 538's forecast just flipped. It went from Kamala with a 53-55% chance to Trump with a 52% chance. This is, of course, mostly meaningless. IT's a 5% shift in odds, which is nothing.

It does seem as though the red wave polls are making a difference in their polling average. Trump does very well among the pollsters with low ratings.
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I know this is reductionist, but we're now at the point where the polls can be ignored. Watch what the candidates are doing. Kamala's in GREAT shape. As is my prediction of her winning NC by 4+ points.
 
lawtig02 said:
I know this is reductionist, but we're now at the point where the polls can be ignored. Watch what the candidates are doing. Kamala's in GREAT shape. As is my prediction of her winning NC by 4+ points.
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My co-worker agrees with you and is convinced it will be a crushing defeat for Trump. I hope you guys are right. Wish I was as confident.
I would agree Kamala continues to do a great job on the trail and Trump continues to be a crazy man.
 
Bovada odds currently:

Trump -165
Harris +140

I took my money out of Bovada when sports gambling became legal in NC (but the sports betting apps don’t have political lines). But if I still had money in Bovada, I would be tempted to place a hefty wager on Kamala at those underdog odds.
 
superrific said:
Hey people. 538's forecast just flipped. It went from Kamala with a 53-55% chance to Trump with a 52% chance. This is, of course, mostly meaningless. IT's a 5% shift in odds, which is nothing.

It does seem as though the red wave polls are making a difference in their polling average. Trump does very well among the pollsters with low ratings.
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I find it hard to really trust most of that right now.
 
05C40 said:
In North Carolina, the vote counts if the challenge is made after the ballot has been removed from the envelope because once separated, there is no way to associate the ballot with the envelope that identifies the voter. If a challenge is received before the envelope and ballot are separated, then the ballot does not count.
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What if the voter votes in person and then dies like an hour later?
 
lawtig02 said:
I know this is reductionist, but we're now at the point where the polls can be ignored. Watch what the candidates are doing. Kamala's in GREAT shape. As is my prediction of her winning NC by 4+ points.
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Well, that would be great but does this extreme optimism have any basis? I mean, Obama won NC by half a point, in a much better overall environment. And then Dems have lost every statewide federal office election. 4+ seems crazy to me.
 
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