2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[Mulberry Heel]

It still blows my mind that there are zero counties around Mecklenburg that have gone blue yet. It kind of defies trends of big metro areas

I think that's the greatest difference between Georgia and NC, and it explains why Democrats have been able to break through in Georgia but not NC yet. Many of the suburbs around Atlanta have turned blue (including some that were solid red just a couple of decades ago). Combined with most of Georgia's urban areas like Savannah, Augusta, etc. voting blue, it's been just enough to overcome the deep red rural and small town areas that cover the state.

In NC, however, the Democrats just haven't been able to make serious inroads into most suburban and exurban counties and areas around Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham, the Triad, Asheville, etc. and that's why they keep losing the state, albeit often by narrow margins. Cabarrus County, I believe, is getting closer for Democrats, but most of these suburban areas around cities like Charlotte are still pretty heavily Republican.

 

[RockyMtnHoo]

Yes, I believe that at least 400k is their goal. She keeps getting closer to that goal with each batch of early voting results that are released.

Am I thinking of another state, or is PA now the one that mail in votes can’t actually be counted until Election Day?

If so, I’m wondering how many of those “Other” that are almost 10% will go to Harris.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Maybe I'm wrong but if I'm reading that correctly, the county colors reflect party of registered early voters and not actual votes.

You're reading it right. But they aren't blue counties at this point in any election.

Agreed cabarrus will flip first. Gaston is the one that blows my mind. I have had a weird suspicion that Democrat turnout in that county is way way below average

But yeah NC doesn't have that Clayton Gwinnett and even Cobb shift yet (well Clayton county is an exception because of demographics)

 

[lightbluenc]

I read this forum and get energized by the confidence surrounding Harris’ chances. Then everywhere else I don’t see it. I hope this forum isn’t giving me false hope.

Columns like this are what have me nervous:

Opinion - Kamala Harris continues to underperform in critical states

Today’s polling speaks volumes; the Harris campaign’s increasing desperation speaks louder still.

www.yahoo.com

This is such a bullshit article.

It says Biden barely beat Trump in the electoral college, and he won 306 to 232, because he narrowly won WI, AZ, GA, NV by 77k votes. Biden wasn't even predicted to win GA and AZ. And meanwhile it says Clinton lost in 2016 handily 304 to 227. WTF man its nearly identical yet Biden narrowly won and Trump handily won.

It also says she's done "softball" interviews, has come out of hiding, while mentions nothing of Trump's absolute disaster of a campaign.

Don't pay attention to this shit, it's there to cause Dems to feel that doom. These polls are coming out, and the election is happening right now. Who cares about a poll when you can literally go vote.

 

[theel4life]

 

[hedge]

Also, my “Z” icon in the upper left corner is purple and gold. Did we get hacked by tigerdroppings?

It's like that on my phone, but not my laptop. I was going to say something but my dad went to ECU so I decided I was OK with it...

 

[superrific]

Wow. That must have been, like, at least 400 people. NC is ours now, baby!

Never mind. I was being stupid.

 

[SmilingJack]

Wow. That must have been, like, at least 400 people. NC is ours now, baby!

 

[CLT Heel]

O

Wow. That must have been, like, at least 400 people. NC is ours now, baby!

the point is if half of those people came out to this and maybe would not have voted otherwise, and there are 50 of these events across the state, you start to see a pattern of new voters that actually will make a meaningful dent in the overall numbers.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Wow. That must have been, like, at least 400 people. NC is ours now, baby!

You really don't follow NC closely huh?

 

[superrific]

the point is if half of those people came out to this and maybe would not have voted otherwise, and there are 50 of these events across the state, you start to see a pattern of new voters that actually will make a meaningful dent in the overall numbers.

Yes, I'm aware. I was being somewhat sardonic, and also making a point that this kind of stuff can only make a marginal difference. If you have 50 of those events and you get 200 new voters in every one, that's 10000 votes. 1/7 of Trump's victory margin in 2020. The world is impossibly large and elections make that so, so clear.

 

[superrific]

You really don't follow NC closely huh?

I don't live in NC currently. I haven't lived in NC for 30 years. In fact, I kind of hate NC. I like UNC sports teams, and have since I was a little boy. That's my connection.

But what's your point?

 

[aGDevil2k]

I don't live in NC currently. I haven't lived in NC for 30 years. In fact, I kind of hate NC. I like UNC sports teams, and have since I was a little boy. That's my connection.

But what's your point?

That getting our HBCU students out is a massive massive thing for gotv efforts

We have a lot of them

 

[nycfan]

 

[superrific]

That getting our HBCU students out is a massive massive thing for gotv efforts

We have a lot of them

Total enrollment in all of them put together appears to be about half of Trump's 2020 margin.

But anyway . . . my original comment was stupid. I retract it. It's one video of one thing happening on one day. Of course it's not going to win the state for us. There could be 20000 people in that line and it wouldn't win the state for us all on its own, but that's clearly the wrong standard to apply.

I was reacting to the twitter line in which the guy wrote, "these young people are going to win the election for us," when it's very far from clear if that's actually true. But of course he wasn't stating it as an empirical prediction. He was saying it as a rally cry. I mean, not literally a rally cry but pretty close to literal.

So I take it all back. Carry on.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Total enrollment in all of them put together appears to be about half of Trump's 2020 margin.

But anyway . . . my original comment was stupid. I retract it. It's one video of one thing happening on one day. Of course it's not going to win the state for us. There could be 20000 people in that line and it wouldn't win the state for us all on its own, but that's clearly the wrong standard to apply.

I was reacting to the twitter line in which the guy wrote, "these young people are going to win the election for us," when it's very far from clear if that's actually true. But of course he wasn't stating it as an empirical prediction. He was saying it as a rally cry. I mean, not literally a rally cry but pretty close to literal.

So I take it all back. Carry on.

Ok cool
Cause the same thing is happening at GHOE today as well

 

[superrific]

Ok cool
Cause the same thing is happening at GHOE today as well

I find that, this time of even numbered years, the enormity of the world is almost incomprehensible and it's depressing. I admit, I feel powerless. Even if I could work tirelessly and convince 100 Trump voters to vote for Kamala, the likelihood of that affecting the election is tiny. And that marching band too -- in isolation, it means nothing. There are just so many people, and thus so much stupidity to battle. Fortunately I don't battle the stupidity alone (of course) but it sometimes feels lonely because it's almost impossible to experience a gathering of people that could swing the election.

Anyway, whatever. It's dumb to minimize the efforts of people trying to do their best.

 

[uncgriff]

Wow. That must have been, like, at least 400 people. NC is ours now, baby!

Never mind. I was being stupid.

They need to vote often

 

[nycfan]

If accurate, this early data is not encouraging for Dems in AZ

 

[nycfan]

Pubs are early voting in NC