2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[LosPollosHermanos]

I guess I know there is a certain segment of the population that is motivated by it. Just didn’t think it would be enough to swing an election.

When was the last time you were 30 minutes outside of a metropolitan area?

 

[dukeman92]

I apologize for my tone, which was less aimed at you and more at the guy who you linked. Also, my boys were starting to fight with each other.

But I don't know what any of that has to do with the simple fact that RCP has long been established as a shit aggregator. The people who run these red wave polls do it to fuck with RCP. It works on them.

All good.

 

[Paine]

When was the last time you were 30 minutes outside of a metropolitan area?

Um, last week? I live in Raleigh and I’m from Saratoga in Wilson County. Lived there for 18 years and go back once a week.

Country people aren’t just trans hating hicks.

 

[LosPollosHermanos]

Um, last week? I live in Raleigh and I’m from Saratoga in Wilson County. Lived there for 18 years and go back once a week.

Country people aren’t just trans hating hicks.

Maybe not in slightly blue WIlson County. In many parts of the state, indeed they are.

 

[Paine]

Maybe not in slightly blue WIlson County. In many parts of the state, indeed they are.

Saratoga is on the very outskirts of the county bordering Greene. Pop. 350. It doesn’t lean blue. The city of Wilson does, but not the county.

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

In Nevada, Dems are more like to use mail-in and GOP more likely to go in person thus far

 

[nycfan]

 

[Healing]

In Nevada, Dems are more like to use mail-in and GOP more likely to go in person thus far

We’ll, that’s not swell.

 

[nycfan]

 

[theel4life]

 

[HeelInTheOzarks]

Now these make sense but let’s wait until they’re cancelled out by a bunch of no name polls showing Trump +4 in Michigan while getting 35% of the black vote.

 

[aGDevil2k]

We’ll, that’s not swell.

I think it's been that way in Nevada for a long time, no?

 

[aGDevil2k]

Now these make sense but let’s wait until they’re cancelled out by a bunch of no name polls showing Trump +4 in Michigan while getting 35% of the black vote.

Me = "OK these are solid polls and make sense...Harris team has said a long time they think Arizona is a couple of cycles from being consistently bluer"

Also me = "OMG NC WTF????"

 

[hedge]

I'm simply pointing out that betting markets are typically better than polls but I'd also say that they're not perfect.

Could you provide a comparison of polls vs. betting markets for the years you're claiming the betting markets were better than the polling? I'm kinda thinking the polling has had a decent track record for many presidential elections since 1980, but I will patiently wait for your side by side comparison, which clearly you have seen or else you wouldn't be making the claim that betting markets are better than polls. Thanks in advance..

 

[gtyellowjacket]

Could you provide a comparison of polls vs. betting markets for the years you're claiming the betting markets were better than the polling? I'm kinda thinking the polling has had a decent track record for many presidential elections since 1980, but I will patiently wait for your side by side comparison, which clearly you have seen or else you wouldn't be making the claim that betting markets are better than polls. Thanks in advance..

I'm happy to put that that on the list of work I'm not going to be doing for people that really don't want the answer or they would just Google it themselves. I appreciate you patiently waiting for it.

 

[LosPollosHermanos]

Could you provide a comparison of polls vs. betting markets for the years you're claiming the betting markets were better than the polling? I'm kinda thinking the polling has had a decent track record for many presidential elections since 1980, but I will patiently wait for your side by side comparison, which clearly you have seen or else you wouldn't be making the claim that betting markets are better than polls. Thanks in advance..

Trump was 8 to 1 in 2016. There were people putting their entire bankroll on Hillary thinking it was free money. I mean they had to put up like $1000 to win $150 but they thought there was no way she could lose so they did it. Lots of people went broke.

 

[lawtig02]

ETA — not you, the polls!

 

[theel4life]

 

[quakerdevil]

This means nothing. Ohio was the same way in 2020, and Orange Hitler still won it by 8.