2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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Hopium from one of my favorite political aggregators/bloggers:

politicalwire.com

I'd Rather Be Kamala Harris Right Now

The 2024 presidential race is shaping up to be the tightest contest of our lifetimes — at least according to the national and swing state polls we’re bombarded with day in and day out. But
politicalwire.com politicalwire.com

“…
Harris right now:

  • Late deciders appear to be breaking for Harris. The last New York Times/Sienna national poll found that 15% of voters had not fully decided, but Harris is leading with that group by 10 percentage points, 42% to 32%. The most recent Emerson pollalso showed Harris leading with this group by double-digits.
  • While I don’t put much faith in trying to divine insight in the early vote, CNN reports women are casting ballots at a much higher rate than men. That’s only good news for Harris given the widely-reported gender gap between the two candidates.
  • Harris has a much better ground game than Donald Trump, which is critically important in getting her supporters to the polls. Trump’s ground game seems either non-existent or a mess, according to reports, and that’s not going to help him with low-propensity voters who could easily find something else to do on Election Day.
Of course, none of this guarantees a Harris victory. But I’m more confident about her candidacy in these final days than I am about Trump’s.”

I usually don’t post his subscription stuff in that much detail but wanted to promote his site. you can have a free account there but the inexpensive subscription is worth it.
 
CFordUNC said:
When all of this MAGA shit is over with in a couple of weeks, I’m gonna be able to spend the rest of my life laughing at every single Republican who has to do the walk of shame back to conservativism like a college girl home from Frat Row on a Sunday morning.
Click to expand...
There's no shame in that latter...
 
nycfan said:
Hopium from one of my favorite political aggregators/bloggers:

politicalwire.com

I'd Rather Be Kamala Harris Right Now

The 2024 presidential race is shaping up to be the tightest contest of our lifetimes — at least according to the national and swing state polls we’re bombarded with day in and day out. But
politicalwire.com politicalwire.com

“…
Harris right now:

  • Late deciders appear to be breaking for Harris. The last New York Times/Sienna national poll found that 15% of voters had not fully decided, but Harris is leading with that group by 10 percentage points, 42% to 32%. The most recent Emerson pollalso showed Harris leading with this group by double-digits.
  • While I don’t put much faith in trying to divine insight in the early vote, CNN reports women are casting ballots at a much higher rate than men. That’s only good news for Harris given the widely-reported gender gap between the two candidates.
  • Harris has a much better ground game than Donald Trump, which is critically important in getting her supporters to the polls. Trump’s ground game seems either non-existent or a mess, according to reports, and that’s not going to help him with low-propensity voters who could easily find something else to do on Election Day.
Of course, none of this guarantees a Harris victory. But I’m more confident about her candidacy in these final days than I am about Trump’s.”

I usually don’t post his subscription stuff in that much detail but wanted to promote his site. you can have a free account there but the inexpensive subscription is worth it.
Click to expand...
Ain't hopium if it's the truth
 




Must have some internals driving that decision? Or draw attention to this complaint?:

 
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nycfan said:




Must have some internals driving that decision? Or draw attention to this complaint?:

Click to expand...

I'm very pleased that this poll is showing the Commonwealth of Virginia is a good supporter of VP Harris and I should think Tim Kaine as well. I'm here in Alexandria and can truly say that Northern Virginia despises Trump and his MAGA brothers & sisters. 6 points is the lowest I've seen in the past few months, as it has consistently been in the 9 to 10 point range . . Voting here in NOVA has been very heavy thus far . .
 
CNN Poll also a tie nationally

Harris 47
Trump 47

IMG_3352.jpeg


“… The race has been remarkably stable throughout this tumultuous political year. The poll finds that 85% of likely voters who’ve made a choice say they knew which party they would support in the presidential election all along, and just 15% say they changed their minds along the way.

As of now, even more than that are fully locked in: A scant 2% of all likely voters say they haven’t yet chosen a candidate, and another 9% say that they could change their minds before casting a ballot.

… Those voters who say their choices are locked in now split 50% Harris to 49% Trump, with just 1% supporting other candidates.

Those who could change tilt toward Trump and are much more likely than decided voters to be backers of minor-party and independent candidates (38% support Trump, 31% Harris, 30% someone else).

They are also much less motivated to vote than those who’ve made a decision. While 70% of likely voters who say their minds are made up say they are “extremely motivated” to vote, that drops to just 27% among those who could change their minds.

…The poll was fielded October 20-23, after early and absentee voting was well underway across the country, and found the 20% of likely voters who say they have already cast their ballots break 61% Harris to 36% Trump, while those who say they haven’t yet voted break in Trump’s favor, 50% to 44%. …”
 


If the CNN poll is not completely and totally wrong, Harris is banking a significant lead in early voting … but Trump will bounce back on Election Day.

Hopefully the early voting totals build to over 30% at the rate she’s won the early voters which, applying the CNN poll result for her lead early and his on ED (obviously a dicey proposition), would make it tough for Trump to catchup.

But if the Trump wins the remaining 80% 50-44, it is a very slight Trump edge depending on what the undecided/third party 6% of those who have not voted do.
 
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