2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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abcnews.go.com

These Americans told our pollsters Trump is a fascist. They’ll still vote for him

Among registered voters who say Trump is a fascist, 8% support him anyway.
abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com

These Americans told our pollsters Trump is a fascist. They’ll still vote for him​

Among registered voters who say Trump is a fascist, 8% support him anyway.

“… Analia, (ABC News is not using last names for privacy reasons) a 46-year-old accounting tour operator and former Democrat from Florida, explained she leans toward Trump because of his policies.

"I don't like him as the person that he chose to be, but I like his politics," she said. "But as a human being, I would never support."

When asked about an authoritarian leader, she said, "I think it's good for the country. I think we need some sort of order. I do like those kinds of things from [Trump]."

… One woman who wished to remain anonymous -- but disclosed she also previously identified as a liberal Democrat -- agreed that Trump fits the definition of a fascist -- on a personal level.

…
"Personally, he's a fascist," she said. "Professionally wise, as president, I think he would do a good job."

"We can call our bosses fascist. Doesn't mean that they're not good bosses," she said.

She also said she would be fine with Trump imposing an authoritarian government, arguing that "somebody needs to impose some type of leadership."

… [another Trump voter who thinks he is a fascist] He also expressed that he does not think Trump can impose fascism in America.

"I don't think he can actually implement it, but I do see him as at least trying," he said.

… Forty-two-year old Mindy from North Carolina told ABC News Trump "definitely" fits the definition of a fascist, and responded affirmatively when asked if she supported authoritarian leadership.

Despite that, she said she doesn't think Trump would take away personal freedoms. "Kamala Harris is taking away our freedom," she argued.

A conservative Republican who works in home health care, Mindy brought up abortion and said that "it's a woman's choice for what she wants to do with her body," agreeing that she would consider herself to be "pro-choice."

At the same time, though, Mindy said she would continue to support Trump even if he were to impose restrictions on abortion.“
 
nycfan said:
abcnews.go.com

These Americans told our pollsters Trump is a fascist. They’ll still vote for him

Among registered voters who say Trump is a fascist, 8% support him anyway.
abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com

These Americans told our pollsters Trump is a fascist. They’ll still vote for him​

Forty-two-year old Mindy from North Carolina told ABC News Trump "definitely" fits the definition of a fascist, and responded affirmatively when asked if she supported authoritarian leadership.

Despite that, she said she doesn't think Trump would take away personal freedoms. "Kamala Harris is taking away our freedom," she argued.
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Which freedoms, Mindy?? Be specific!

Unbelievably stupid.
 
1moretimeagain said:
Harris underperforming Biden among women wouldn’t be great.
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I'll believe it when I see it. But remember, Biden won by almost 5 points nationally. So in a race where she's leading by 1 point nationally, she's going to underperform Biden in 2020 among many demos.

It doesn't matter how well Biden did or didn't do among women in Iowa.
 
nycfan said:
Dead Heat

IMG_3343.jpeg

emersoncollegepolling.com

October 2024 National Poll: Trump 49%, Harris 49% - Emerson Polling

A new Emerson College Polling national survey of US likely voters finds both former president…Full Release & Results
emersoncollegepolling.com emersoncollegepolling.com
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Just so I get this straight, since 2020, Roe v Wade has been overturned, numerous red states have adopted draconian anti-abortion laws, every single abortion ballot initiative that has been put to a vote has overwhelmingly been voted for, even in red states…and somehow, Kamala is UNDERPERFORMING with women compared to 2020?

Sometimes it becomes readily apparent which polls aren’t worth paying attention to. This would be one of them.
 
WaynetheDrain said:
Just so I get this straight, since 2020, Roe v Wade has been overturned, numerous red states have adopted draconian anti-abortion laws, every single abortion ballot initiative that has been put to a vote has overwhelmingly been voted for, even in red states…and somehow, Kamala is UNDERPERFORMING with women compared to 2020?

Sometimes it becomes readily apparent which polls aren’t worth paying attention to. This would be one of them.
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No. We don't get to discount a poll because we don't like what it's telling us. That's the HRC 2016 strategy.

Women vote on many issues other than abortion. You know, because mostly women and men share similar life experiences in our daily lives. And the success of those abortion ballot initiatives in red states only shows that abortion isn't necessarily the most important issue. It's an important issue, but these referenda are revealing plenty of HYs. He says he's pro-choice but he doesn't care about the issue enough to vote for candidates on its basis. Well, apparently there are a lot of them.

This is a great example, though, of why you should look at polling averages. Don't try to judge which polls are good and aren't good based on your preconceived notions of what they should look like. It's tempting to discount polls that look ridiculous. I've done it. But outside of true absurdity, it's just not a good idea.
 
nycfan said:
a lot are from CLT and Raleigh. In the primaries nearly 45% of GOP voters voted for Haley, nearly 38% did the same in Wake. How many of those GOP voters can Kamala get?
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Totally anecdotal and means absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things, but there was a house around the corner from mine that had about 10 (if not more) Haley signs in the yard during primary season. A couple weeks ago, I saw a Trump sign in that same yard. (I didn’t see it the last time I drove by; the yard is now full of Halloween decorations.)
 
Icky Mettle said:
Totally anecdotal and means absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things, but there was a house around the corner from mine that had about 10 (if not more) Haley signs in the yard during primary season. A couple weeks ago, I saw a Trump sign in that same yard. (I didn’t see it the last time I drove by; the yard is now full of Halloween decorations.)
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There's a house in town that has a bunch of Halloween decorations, but the scariest thing is a Trump flag they have hanging from the front porch.
 
superrific said:
No. We don't get to discount a poll because we don't like what it's telling us. That's the HRC 2016 strategy.

Women vote on many issues other than abortion. You know, because mostly women and men share similar life experiences in our daily lives. And the success of those abortion ballot initiatives in red states only shows that abortion isn't necessarily the most important issue. It's an important issue, but these referenda are revealing plenty of HYs. He says he's pro-choice but he doesn't care about the issue enough to vote for candidates on its basis. Well, apparently there are a lot of them.

This is a great example, though, of why you should look at polling averages. Don't try to judge which polls are good and aren't good based on your preconceived notions of what they should look like. It's tempting to discount polls that look ridiculous. I've done it. But outside of true absurdity, it's just not a good idea.
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So can I ask why you think Harris will win? Because I see you consistently defending the Silvers and Cohns, and saying not to discount the weird-looking polls. So what data points to the outcome you expect? Or is it vibes?
 
HeelInTheOzarks said:
So can I ask why you think Harris will win? Because I see you consistently defending the Silvers and Cohns, and saying not to discount the weird-looking polls. So what data points to the outcome you expect? Or is it vibes?
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1. Ground game
2. Harris doing better with the most likely voters (this pertains to #1 in part)
3. Small dollar donations and volunteers
4. I'd rather be doing well among women than men
5. Because I don't trust the recalled vote methodology, and my understanding is that Kamala is doing better in the polls not using that methodology (this isn't a complaint about weird looking polls; this is an objection in theory that I would use no matter what the poll results might say)
6. Trump is putting a lot of weight on his inroads with young men, especially of color. It's unclear to me if young black men are actually going to pull for Trump. Just as most of the Haley voters and on-the-fence white people will pull for Trump because ultimately that's who they are, I'm guessing that this same dynamic will be at work this cycle for black men. That's potentially a significant difference-maker in GA and NC.

Of these, only #6 is purely speculative. The others are factual in nature. The uncertainty is in the magnitude of the effects. And there are concerns about polling errors, but (more informed speculation coming) I'm thinking that the polls are going to miss slightly in Kamala's direction, especially in blue wall states, because the pollsters will have overcorrected (see, e.g., the recalled vote methodology). There are also issues from 2020 polling that seem unlikely to be repeated.

I'd add another speculative thought, which is that there will be some Trump leaners who are looking at his increasing instability and dementia and just won't be able to cast the ballot for him when it's time. These are likely to be people who voted for Biden, and so they are already skeptical of Trump's bullshit and bluster.
 
Icky Mettle said:
Totally anecdotal and means absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things, but there was a house around the corner from mine that had about 10 (if not more) Haley signs in the yard during primary season. A couple weeks ago, I saw a Trump sign in that same yard. (I didn’t see it the last time I drove by; the yard is now full of Halloween decorations.)
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Haley voters switching to Harris will happen but it’ll certainly be the exception rather than the rule. Haley herself has endorsed Trump and warned how dangerous a Harris presidency would be.
 
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