2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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05C40 said:
I hate for Harris to lose any state that is contested, but she is going to lose some. But Arizona is particularly problematic because a Trump win there might drag Kari Lake into the US Senate. But right now, I think, it is Trump +1 over Harris and Gallego +8 over Lake. I guess the people of Arizona have first-hand knowledge of how nuts Lake is.
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I think we would all gladly trade NC and GA going blue for NV and AZ to be red (assuming we can win PA pr MI)
 
Arizona h
uncjhodges said:
I’m giving up on Arizona (and nevada though ultimately nevada doesn’t really matter except in weird circumstances). Bunch of people out there betting on the leopard not eating their face
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AZ consistently rejects MAGA. Trump, Masters, Lake and Fontes in 2020 and Lake is currently down double digits to Gallego.
 
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superrific said:
I think it's because young people feel no particular affinity with either political party and they want everyone to understand that.

And I don't blame them for the no affinity part. But as they get older, hopefully they will realize that they are Dems whether they like it or not, because in our political environment, sane=Dem and GOP = BSC at the party level at least.

This is also why I say to the Lincoln Project people (and CFord!) that they should just admit to themselves that they are now conservative Dems. There's no old GOP and it's not coming back. They are going to have to admit that they chose the wrong team way back when, and it's good that they are trying to make up for it but joining the other team seems more sensible than standing out in the cold throwing stones.
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It’s not even about affinity or not. I became unaffiliated by registration years ago to stop getting fundraising calls/texts. Now I live in Virginia though which doesn’t register people by party and has open primaries. I currently identify as a Dem but the only way someone would know would be looking up my primary voting history.
 
BlueSmoke said:
It only takes one screw up in the blue wall states to throw this election. Noted on Morning Joe, there was some concern about the transgender ad Trump is using full force in those states and almost no push back from Harris Campaign. Shades of Swift boating?

But, in this case you have to wonder why not much push back? Could it be a reluctance to butt heads with a Dem special interest group that the push back would cause?
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I think the strategy is don’t push back to avoid pissing off anyone. Pro-transgender folks would be motivated to vote Harris just by the Trump ad and pushing back risks alienating Anti-transgender folks who are otherwise open to voting to Harris due to other, more important issues. Either way transgender rights ranks very low on priorities for voters, so elevating its importance by responding isn’t likely to be very helpful and may hurt. Better to address issues voters care more about.
 
BlueSmoke said:
Willie Horton ad was stupid ass too. Dems big poll lead disappeared quick. No Dem response.
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Crime scares the shit out of people. While the same is true of some people for transgender, most people don’t even know someone transgender and don’t really care one way or the other.
 
05C40 said:
I hate for Harris to lose any state that is contested, but she is going to lose some. But Arizona is particularly problematic because a Trump win there might drag Kari Lake into the US Senate. But right now, I think, it is Trump +1 over Harris and Gallego +8 over Lake. I guess the people of Arizona have first-hand knowledge of how nuts Lake is.
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270towin.jpg

I think the final map will look something like this. She's gonna blow him out.
 
nycfan said:
Gender gap of +3 in NC is bad for Harris as that is smaller than the gender gap in NC in the 2020 election. And -3 in Nevada is devastating for her chances there. Georgia at +9 is slightly below 2020 … but those numbers are very healthy in the Blue Wall.
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Dems should’ve convinced a couple of the big video game franchises to have a new release on Nov 4.
 
Color me shocked, absolutely shocked, that the final NYT poll is tied. Wonder what incentive they have for that.

I’m at the point where I’m just saying fuck it until Election Day. None of these pollsters know what the turnout is going to be. They’re shooting in the dark and hoping they finally got it right this year.
 
Paine said:
Color me shocked, absolutely shocked, that the final NYT poll is tied. Wonder what incentive they have for that.

I’m at the point where I’m just saying fuck it until Election Day. None of these pollsters know what the turnout is going to be. They’re shooting in the dark and hoping they finally got it right this year.
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If they say it’s a toss up, they can say they got it right regardless of the outcome.
 
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