2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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superrific said:
I know. I was just saying that we wouldn't mind if you did a Lebron or MJ thing and showed off even for your teammates. I don't think any of us will care in the slightest if you were to start a thread every day titled "I told y'all motherfuckers!"
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Just wait until we end up winning NC by 4+ points!
Stefon Diggs Football GIF by Minnesota Vikings
 
heelinhell said:
Gas prices peaked at $4.11/gallon in July 2008... I don't remember anyone pissing and moaning about gas prices back then.
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I wonder why HY cited gas prices as evidence that things were totally out of control economically, with the implication being, of course, that it was Biden's fault?
 
theel4life said:
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That's a lot of fucking LVs. I've never seen a publicly released poll with so many respondents. The error bars on that one should be pretty low (though error bars decrease quite gradually after a certain point).

Keep in mind, though, that the poll ran from Oct 1- Oct 25. So if it's true that Trump has been gaining ground in the last two weeks -- and I'm skeptical that he really has -- then that poll would be a bit too optimistic as a snapshot right now. BUT 4 points is a bigger margin than Kamala had even a month ago (or at least on part with it), so even if this was conducted on October 1, it would be a good data point.

Keep in mind also that error bars only measure "random" error -- that is, undetectable sample biases because of selection on important but unknown factors. They don't measure systemic bias.

Caveats aside, this is a really good poll for Kamala because of the # of respondents. I still think national polls don't mean much, but they mean at least a little more to Kamala because it's looking like Trump's EV advantage is gone. That is, folks are freaking out that her lead is only 1 point nationally and closing -- because in the past, that margin would mean we lose. That's not true any more. But Kamala +4 means we win for sure.
 
Unc12003 said:
Eh, I kind of disagree. I don’t think the issues matter at all right now. The right doesn’t talk about issues at all anymore. It’s all, “everyone is out to get you unless you vote for us.”

I might argue that Harris and her ads talk to much about the issues.

The dems refuse to play the same game as the republications do and that’s why we keep losing
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We keep losing? We (meaning the dems) have won 3 of the last 4 presidential elections and 5 out of the last 8. Dem presidential candidates have won the popular vote in 7 out of that last 8 elections. (And I know that winning the popular vote isn’t the same as winning the election, but it does mean you’re getting more people to vote for you.)
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
The most direct reasons I voted for Trump, all of which I have shared previously, are:

1) The average person's dollar stretched further than ever before during Trump's first presidency. Now everything from groceries to gas is totally out of control and creating financial strain on the middle class. I personally have been able to save and invest in accordance with my goals under all 3 of Obama/Trump/Biden, because I am young and well-educated and have worked my tail off in my career, so my personal situation has only gotten better under each successive administration since I graduated. But some of my less-fortunate family members are struggling the last 4 years after thriving under Trump.

2) Trump will work to reduce illegal immigration. I had a close childhood friend who died in 2023 of fentanyl overdose so this danger became personal to me in the last couple years.

3) No new wars during Trump's first term. And then after the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle from the Biden administration, it emboldened Putin to move on Ukraine, Hamas to slaughter innocent Jews and the ensuing slaughter of innocent Palestinians in Gaza since, and of course China flirting with Taiwan....

4) Democrats nationwide lost their ever-loving minds during COVID and it opened my mind to which side stands for personal freedom vs which side stands for authoritarian policies and the government being the answer to everything to save us from ourselves (hint: the authoritarian side is the side that likes to accuse the other side of being authoritarian)

5) Drain the swamp.. "The system" in Washington DC and their friends in the news media can't stand Donald Trump. The administrative state in this country is absurd and we need political outsiders in there to clean up as much of the mess as possible. Half the country was led to believe that everything with Joe Biden's health was fine for the last 4 years, and they bought it hook/line/sinker until it was exposed for the world to see on national TV during the debate. If Harris and others will downright lie to you about the mental state of the POTUS, what else are they lying about?
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Regarding gas prices - Do you suspect the collapse in oil production during 2020 had anything to with the subsequent price spike when demand for gas returned?
 
heelinhell said:
Democrats are great at governing but suck at messaging
GQPers are great at messaging but suck at governing
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I’d say that Dems take governing seriously but have such a large voter coalition compared to GOP that messaging is much harder for them. Something as simple as MAGA would never work on the left.

The GOP doesn’t care about governing. They simply want to rule. And I’d say their voters are generally more susceptible to party messaging. The simpler the better.
 
lightbluenc said:
I don't think any messaging matters anymore. There's too much noise, too much misinformation to convince anyone anymore. Hell Elon Musk is literally paying people millions of dollars to convince them and it still might not work.
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That's half right. Traditional argumentative messaging doesn't work so much any more. But you can get people's attention for 5 seconds with ads on YouTube and other places. The images matter.

When I was in grad school, I did a paper on advertising in America in the 20th century. It was so bizarre to see ads in the old days. They were like newspaper articles. They would have at least dozens of words, if not hundreds. They were trying to convince people that their products were better. By the 80s, the ad pros realized that pictures are a thousand words; that a good logo is better than all those old text ads put together; etc.

Political media has been a bit slow to catch onto those trends, but the social media environment is forcing them to. Mazda used to sell cars with "zoom zoom zoom." That's the sort of thing we can do.

And this is why MAGA was successful for Trump. It's unfortunately a great slogan. It's so great that it's become its own political category. Meanwhile, Hillary had "I'm With Her," the worst slogan I can remember. MAGA is now worn out, and I don't know if Trump has anything new. "We're not going back" is very good.
 
superrific said:
That's half right. Traditional argumentative messaging doesn't work so much any more. But you can get people's attention for 5 seconds with ads on YouTube and other places. The images matter.

When I was in grad school, I did a paper on advertising in America in the 20th century. It was so bizarre to see ads in the old days. They were like newspaper articles. They would have at least dozens of words, if not hundreds. They were trying to convince people that their products were better. By the 80s, the ad pros realized that pictures are a thousand words; that a good logo is better than all those old text ads put together; etc.

Political media has been a bit slow to catch onto those trends, but the social media environment is forcing them to. Mazda used to sell cars with "zoom zoom zoom." That's the sort of thing we can do.

And this is why MAGA was successful for Trump. It's unfortunately a great slogan. It's so great that it's become its own political category. Meanwhile, Hillary had "I'm With Her," the worst slogan I can remember. MAGA is now worn out, and I don't know if Trump has anything new. "We're not going back" is very good.
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They didn't sell very many cars with zoom, zoom, zoom.
 
Observations from second day of canvassing for Harris/Waltz:
1) Most people still are not home or fail to come to the door
2) There does still appear to be some people that still have not decided on president and governor (or they’re lying)
3) Bringing up important issues like the ACA contribution to all health insurance availability regardless of preexisting conditions and for children to age 25 and the effects to women’s healthcare related to Dobbs decision can get nods of approval
4) some women feel they need to keep voices low so their MAGA husband watching TV in the other room does not hear the conversation
5) there is opportunity to help provide a ride to the polling place for some residents
6) when you are getting in 10,000+ steps canvassing, you don’t have the time or inclination to get depressed about polling data that is being reported by who knows what source
7) it is not a waste of time to help the GOTV effort. I encourage it for Harris/Stein/Hunt/Jackson/Green supporters. I do not encourage it for Trump/Robinson/etc supporters.
 
1moretimeagain said:
Regarding gas prices - Do you suspect the collapse in oil production during 2020 had anything to with the subsequent price spike when demand for gas returned?
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As has been reiterated ad nauseum, HY doesn't think beyond "Mongo president when gas prices high. Mongo bad". Of course like all idiotic MAGA's he doesn't apply the same criteria the other way - like Trump being POTUS when the pandemic hit.
 
hedge said:
I wonder why HY cited gas prices as evidence that things were totally out of control economically, with the implication being, of course, that it was Biden's fault?
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probably cause he saw them Biden stickers on the pumps
 
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