2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[nycfan]

Polls are not saying Trump is winning, they say it is a tie. I know I’ve got beaten dog syndrome from 2016 and from some bruising losses in NC over the years (particularly Hunt and then Gantt losing to Jesse Helms back in the day), but the pollsters are also admitting they don’t know for sure.

There was a silent (undetected) Hobbs vote against the GOP in 2022 notwithstanding virtually all the historic precedents pointing to a red wave. There is a massive party realignment in progress right now between Democrats and MAGA resulting in Dems having the greater share of the highest propensity voters.

I said before that I’m getting the 2016 vibes but I can also see weird cross-currents in the data that are clearly confusing professional pollsters may well be more like 2012 in some ways, but with the MAGA realignment also playing a big role.

 

[ICFree]

Harris is an amazing candidate now? Did she even make it to Iowa when she ran in the primary?

She was anointed because unlike Biden she at least knows what day of the week it is, but she is hardly an “amazing candidate” by any definition of the word. She got zero votes.

Maybe you're slow on the uptake with this but, your opinion of this kind of thing doesn't matter.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Tell me why she will win. Show me the data.

dukeman92 did that to you 3 days ago. Then you go right back and ask the same damn question. If he shows you the data, you will be right back here tomorrow with the same question.

 

[aGDevil2k]

The data… including the latest polls, don’t reflect what happened at the Garden last night.

Supposedly that was a terrible look for Trump, supposedly, but to me it was simply more of the same messaging.

Let’s wait and see what “the data” says after this latest shit show gets fed into the calculator.

The ABC poll is the one poll that really breaks down their trends, demos, etc. And interestingly, it's the poll that looks the best for Harris.

 

[lawtig02]

Harris is an amazing candidate now? Did she even make it to Iowa when she ran in the primary?

She was anointed because unlike Biden she at least knows what day of the week it is, but she is hardly an “amazing candidate” by any definition of the word. She got zero votes.

Maybe I missed it but in all your time posting here and on the ZZLP, have you made a single post actually defending the record, rhetoric and agenda of the guy you’re voting for? I don’t remember one.

 

[nycfan]

 

[Centerpiece]

The ABC poll is the one poll that really breaks down their trends, demos, etc. And interestingly, it's the poll that looks the best for Harris.

Agree. Let's see what the data/polls say a few days from now, once the MSG shit show has time to percolate.

 

[aGDevil2k]

That NYT poll is the one that had it tied but late deciders are heavily to Harris.

 

[uncjhodges]

That NYT poll is the one that had it tied but late deciders are heavily to Harris.

The nyt polls have been pretty right leaning. I think they’re overcompensating for a “silent” trump voter that just doesn’t exist this time

 

[05C40]

I just don’t get how anyone is watching what Trump is saying and doing, and thinking to themselves, “I want to vote for this guy.”

OK, just imagine you are stuck in some low-paying, dead-end job, with no prospect of advancement, and a near certainty that your job will soon be done by some third world child who will work for 1/10th what you make. And then with all that in mind, imagine what that person must feel seeing some college graduate driving down the road in a new car, going home to a fancy house. Does imagining that scenario make you (a) want to improve your life by learning new job skills that are in demand in today's economy or (b) want to shove that smarmy college boy's face in the mud and set fire to his car and house? If (a) you are a Democrat. If (b) you are a Republican.

 

[Enigma94]

Maybe I missed it but in all your time posting here and on the ZZLP, have you made a single post actually defending the record, rhetoric and agenda of the guy you’re voting for? I don’t remember one.

The closest thing you'll get to analysis from HY is "well all I know is inflation was higher under Biden".

 

[Icky Mettle]

I’ll throw in my two cents and voice some relative optimism. Despite a slight shifting in polls, I highly doubt anything has changed over the past couple months in terms of how people plan to vote. And when you see national polls that show Trump leading or the race tied, that’s just hard to believe. I would be shocked if Kamala doesn’t win the popular vote by more than a point, which suggests to me that many of these polls are overstating Trump’s chances. And that overstatement may therefore apply to the polling in battleground states as well. While things change, let’s also remember that the blue wall states have rejected Trump and MAGAism in post-2016 elections.

I totally get why people are freaking out. This isn’t Romney or McCain on the Republican ticket. Regardless of whether we disagreed with them, we had enough confidence that they were decent enough people … and competent. This is a guy whose cabinet members have warned us of the dangers of a Trump presidency and tried to provide guardrails during his first term. And if he wins, based on who he is currently surrounding himself with, it seems unlikely that those guardrails will be in place.

We’ll see what happens on Election Day (or the days after). We’re not living in a country where people are trying to decide whether to vote for Harris or Trump. It comes down to whether those who aren’t sure whether they are going to vote are going to end up voting and how those people lean.

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

 

[heelinhell]

I wonder how many Indys have voted early ?
I wonder how many Dems have voted early for Trump ?
I wonder how many republicans have voted early for Kamala ?

 

[superrific]

OK, y'all, Nate Cohn's comments on the last NYT survey should be appreciated in full. And I will add one more example to the shift he describes: the Times poll had Trump running about 9 points better in NYC than in previous years. Thus:

***--- National Polls Do Not Matter ---***

Because the race is so close in the swing states, campaigns are paying little to no attention to other less competitive states. And Trump is running wild in places where his base support is strong. Good for him. It's pushing his national polling numbers up. It does nothing for him in the EC.

National polls are only relevant when there is a predictable partisan lean for the swing states. But that partisan lean is not predictable this year. And pretty much everything I've read says to trust the state polls over the national polls this late in the race -- well, the swing state polls because there are so many of them.

We do not need a popular vote cushion. Trump could win the popular vote and lose the EC. I don't know why people are assuming that's impossible. Remember, the main factor in creating the Dems' EC deficit was that the most populous state has been a blue landslide state, but the third most populous state was a pink state just out of reach. OK, knock about 5 points off Dem performance in CA and add 5 to FL and the EC issue starts to dissipate real quick.

Pretty much everyone is acknowledging this now. It was only Nate Cohn a month ago. The swing states are largely unmoored from the national trends, at least at the closeness levels that we care about. If the national polls move by 7, I'd expect the swing states to move and there's no real difference if they move by 5, 7 or 9. But if the national polls move by a point, and the swing states move by a fraction of that -- which is what we care about -- then it's nothing.

 

[rodoheel]

Maybe I missed it but in all your time posting here and on the ZZLP, have you made a single post actually defending the record, rhetoric and agenda of the guy you’re voting for? I don’t remember one.

What's he's said in the past is basically "my family and I were better off financially under Trump, and that's the thing I care about the most"

 

[CallMeTyler]

What's he's said in the past is basically "my family and I were better off financially under Trump, and that's the thing I care about the most"

That’s his public, PR-rendered position. Anyone voting for Trump, after so many vile, treacherous things he’s said and done, cannot only care about their alleged financial fortunes (which doesn’t hold up) under Trump.

HY is too cowardly to own his real reasons publicly.

 

[farce©]

Harris is an amazing candidate now? Did she even make it to Iowa when she ran in the primary?

She was anointed because unlike Biden she at least knows what day of the week it is, but she is hardly an “amazing candidate” by any definition of the word. She got zero votes.

You voted for Donald Trump and Hal Leatherman. Mark Robinson, Dan Bishop, and Michelle Morrow are a bridge too far for you but you happily vote for people just as bad or worse. Maybe you should sit this out rather than offering your nonsensical “analysis.”

 

[heelinhell]

What's he's said in the past is basically "my family and I were better off financially under Trump, and that's the thing I care about the most"

I suspect that his family was not financially better off under Trump compared to today...