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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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CFordUNC said:
Which is precisely the entire point of the GOP-backed red wave pollsters flooding the zone with shit.

Ask yourself this: is the Trump campaign currently behaving like they think they are winning or going to win?
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I think they are being brash, bold and very confident. But they are always like that, because if they lose, they say the other side MUST have cheated.
 
lightbluenc said:
I think they are being brash, bold and very confident. But they are always like that, because if they lose, they say the other side MUST have cheated.
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That’s precisely it. Anyone thinking that the Trump campaign is feeling like they are going to win the election the “old fashioned way” should have been fully disabused of that notion by yesterday‘s rally at MSG. That is not a campaign that is trying to add a single vote to their coffers- not one single solitary vote from moderate voters, independent voters, “undecided” voters, crossover voters, minority voters, etc. It’s a campaign that is laying the groundwork for attempting extralegal methods of winning the election.
 
Now is not the time for pessimism; it cannot help, it only hurts. As hard as we've worked, as much as we've donated, as much as we've volunteered, these last 8 days need to be the hardest we've gone in the entire campaign cycle. I don't give a $h!t if you're busy, or you're tired, or you're depressed. If you do nothing, then you have no right to complain.

1. If you feel anxious or nervous, then "shut up and do something." - Michelle Obama

2. “Well, Doctor, what have we got, a republic or a monarchy?” - Elizabeth Willing Powel

“A republic, if you can keep it” - Ben Franklin

3. "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." - unconfirmed
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
The thing I cling to is that every time there’s supposedly going to be a red wave, it’s the opposite. The polls are very discouraging.
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I agree. Hoping the error this time is polls markedly overshooting their adjustments in an effort to capture Trump support.

What they got wrong in 2016 was just about everything; in 2020 the pollsters pretty well nailed Biden’s support but understated Trump support by overstating undecided and third party intentions. In 2022, they overstated generic GOP support and GOP votes in some Senate races.

Trump has not gotten over 47% support nationally in two prior elections, so I cling to that. Trump got 46.1% (to HRC’s 48%) nationally in 2016 and 46.8% (to Biden’s 51.3%) in 2020.

But in swing states this year in he got 48.1% in PA in 2016 and 48.8% in 2020; in MI, 47.5% in 2016 and 47.84% in 2020; in WI 47.22% in 2016 and 48.82% in 2020; AZ 48.08% in 2016 and 49.06% in 2020; NC 49.83% in 2016 and 49.93% in 2020; and GA 50.38% in 2016 and 49.24% in Georgia.

So Trump’s support actually grew slightly in all but one of those states from 2016 to 2020(!), with a significant 1.0 point downtick only in Georgia. And in those states he got at minimum 47.84% in those states in 2020, and nearly 50% in NC.

Best case scenario for Harris is polls have overcompensated for red votes and so are understating her support nationally and in swing states. But another more nuanced possibility is that the swing states are closer to the national mean b/c overwhelmingly Dem support has eroded in deep Blue states among working class voters - not nearly enough to put her candidacy at risk in those states but enough to eliminate the Clinton/Biden national total advantage. That would mean the national and swing state results should look about the same rather than Dems needing to be +3 nationally to win in swing states.

We won’t know until we know but since 2012, I’ve definitely thought that the side that is unskewing the polls is usually in trouble. This year, both sides have been unskewing at certain times but the late trends certainly seem to be favoring Trump and the GOP. To me, the real canaries in the coal mine have been the tightening of the Senate elections in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Anti-trans ads in both states seem to have been extremely successful.

Today, TBH, it feels like 2016 all over again (but with advance notice). The turnout doesn’t seem to be there like it was in 2020 but is surging more in rural areas (so far).

But Maybe GOP voters, authorized to use early in-person voting, are just surging in early voting and that is causing the eventual total GOP turnout to be overstated(??)
 
quakerdevil said:
Now is not the time for pessimism; it cannot help, it only hurts. As hard as we've worked, as much as we've donated, as much as we've volunteered, these last 8 days need to be the hardest we've gone in the entire campaign cycle. I don't give a $h!t if you're busy, or you're tired, or you're depressed. If you do nothing, then you have no right to complain.

1. If you feel anxious or nervous, then "shut up and do something." - Michelle Obama

2. “Well, Doctor, what have we got, a republic or a monarchy?” - Elizabeth Willing Powel

“A republic, if you can keep it” - Ben Franklin

3. "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." - unconfirmed
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A likely source for the last.

"When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall, one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle."- Edmund Burke
 
CFordUNC said:
That’s precisely it. Anyone thinking that the Trump campaign is feeling like they are going to win the election the “old fashioned way” should have been fully disabused of that notion by yesterday‘s rally at MSG. That is not a campaign that is trying to add a single vote to their coffers- not one single solitary vote from moderate voters, independent voters, “undecided” voters, crossover voters, minority voters, etc. It’s a campaign that is laying the groundwork for attempting extralegal methods of winning the election.
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This is what I mean.
 
Nate Cohn this morning:

“With one week to go until the election, Kamala Harris’s lead over Donald Trump in the national polls is starting to get very slim. And the battleground states remain extraordinarily tight, with no candidate holding any material lead in the seven states likeliest to decide the presidency. In a sense, that’s not surprising. What’s interesting is that Harris remains competitive in the battlegrounds even though her national lead has dwindled.” Updated Oct. 28

www.nytimes.com

Election 2024 Polls: Nebraska C.D. 2

See the latest election polls and polling averages for Nebraska C.D. 2.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
nycfan said:
Today, TBH, it feels like 2016 all over again (but with advance notice). The turnout doesn’t seem to be there like it was in 2020 but is surging more in rural areas (so far).
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This is what it feels like to me as well. I just think there's far too many folks out there who ultimately won't vote for a woman. They told us they wouldn't vote for Joe Biden because he was old (and now age doesn't matter anymore), and they said to pick literally anyone else for us to vote for. Harris is an amazing candidate and now those same folks say they can't vote for her because of "reasons".
 
Icky Mettle said:
I just don’t get how anyone is watching what Trump is saying and doing, and thinking to themselves, “I want to vote for this guy.”
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Because none of what he says actually matters. Your very last word is is all that matters. "Guy"

He's a man, and there's an enormous amount of men (*and women) who won't vote for a woman still. They'll come up with reason after reason that makes no sense, but that's all that actually matters to them.
 
Icky Mettle said:
I just don’t get how anyone is watching what Trump is saying and doing, and thinking to themselves, “I want to vote for this guy.”
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Most of them aren't watching any more than the clips that they see on their social media feeds. And for many of them those feeds are so captured by right-wing BS that they may as well be living in an alternate reality.
 
So now everyone else is feeling like Trump is more likely to win. Yall blasting me for being negative when I had this view weeks ago. Like I said this country isn’t going to elect a black woman president. We suck!
 
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