2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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BlueSmoke said:
Expanding on the excellent point a poster made earlier today: yes social media seems to be what MAGA voters respond to. Could explain why Republicans tend to ignore ground games and focus on outrage to drive social media blood pressure. In this way they can achieve their voting "ceiling" rather then be stuck with their "floor" as the end voting result.

On the other hand, for Dems to achieve their "ceiling" then they must focus on their ground game. Pretty much always has been that way.

So if both sides do their job well, then the voting result is closer to each side's "ceiling". Which could mirror polling I suppose.

Unless those pesky undecided's come into play and actually break one way or the other.
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I don't think this is a conscious choice. From what I understand, the ground game woes for the GOP are because:

1. Trump was diverting so much of the donations to his own use, and thus the campaign didn't have the money to invest in anything proper.
2. Trump installed an idiot as head of the RNC, who was then promptly convinced to hand over GOTV to Turning Point USA, which had no idea how to do it. Then Elon stepped in, but he also doesn't know how to do it.

I very much doubt that the GOP doesn't want or care about a ground game. Rather, I think this is a cost of the corruption and nepotism that drives the Trump campaign.
 
superrific said:
I don't think this is a conscious choice. From what I understand, the ground game woes for the GOP are because:

1. Trump was diverting so much of the donations to his own use, and thus the campaign didn't have the money to invest in anything proper.
2. Trump installed an idiot as head of the RNC, who was then promptly convinced to hand over GOTV to Turning Point USA, which had no idea how to do it. Then Elon stepped in, but he also doesn't know how to do it.

I very much doubt that the GOP doesn't want or care about a ground game. Rather, I think this is a cost of the corruption and nepotism that drives the Trump campaign.
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That, and the GOP has no real interest in organizing or governing anything. It's a party of chaos and destruction, not organization.
 
lawtig02 said:
That, and the GOP has no real interest in organizing or governing anything. It's a party of chaos and destruction, not organization.
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Trump's GOP. It wasn't always that way. Remember when the GOP was the party of discipline? As Bill said, "Dems fall in love, Republicans fall in line." Karl Rove ran a tight ship.
 
8992Tiger said:
For the GQPers, messaging = lying, and you are right, they are damn good at it.
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Policy is complicated. When you don’t have a policy and aren’t encumbered by pesky things like facts, messaging is easy.

Taking real policies and boiling then down to 3 word messages that’ll fit on a bumper sticker is hard, if not impossible
 
lawtig02 said:
Pubs like HY are not dumb. But, as this article shows, many of them are EXTREMELY, and presumably willfully, uninformed.
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But how can anybody be uniformed about gas prices? Presumably he is filling up his car weekly, he can see with his own eyes that gas prices are coming down and in any event even the highest recent prices are nowhere near where they were 15+ years ago. Granted, that number cited as the high water mark from 2008 was an outlier, but gas has been in the mid-$2 to low $3 range for quite some time, so why would somebody armed with that first-hand knowledge cite gas prices as evidence that everything is "totally out of control and creating financial strain on the middle class"?
 
hedge said:
But how can anybody be uniformed about gas prices? Presumably he is filling up his car weekly, he can see with his own eyes that gas prices are coming down and in any event even the highest recent prices are nowhere near where they were 15+ years ago. Granted, that number cited as the high water mark from 2008 was an outlier, but gas has been in the mid-$2 to low $3 range for quite some time, so why would somebody armed with that first-hand knowledge cite gas prices as evidence that everything is "totally out of control and creating financial strain on the middle class"?
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Because "pRiCeS!!!!!!!!!!!!" is cover.
 
CFordUNC said:
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Ah yes, Rogan showing off his grasp of statistics. Hey assholes! If you're on TV, your ratings are based on small samples! Did you know that?

I'm guessing this is what happened: Trump got an internal poll putting him at 47 1/2 and he's pissed about it. So of course they didn't poll. Notice how the example of the fake poll was 51-49 Trump, and then he inverts it. What's the difference between 49 and 47 1/2. He was hoping for 49 and he got 47 1/2.
 
We are definitely at the point where any of the 4 results (Harris big, Harris tight, Trump big, Trump tight) are in play. Nation holds its breath until early Wednesday AM.
 
WaynetheDrain said:
Maybe even a day or two beyond that.
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But probably not. It's more likely we know before Wed AM than Thursday. If Kamala wins NC or GA, it's probably over. If she wins both, Trump would need a miracle. MI and WI will probably tally their votes on Tuesday night. PA is going to be the problem because of their legislature, but if we are winning MI and WI by 3 or more points, PA will almost surely be in our camp.

And if we lose MI or WI without winning NC or GA, we will very likely lose.
 
Icky Mettle said:
We keep losing? We (meaning the dems) have won 3 of the last 4 presidential elections and 5 out of the last 8. Dem presidential candidates have won the popular vote in 7 out of that last 8 elections. (And I know that winning the popular vote isn’t the same as winning the election, but it does mean you’re getting more people to vote for you.)
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Yeah keep losing wasn’t the right choice of words. My point was really that I don’t think restricting messaging to being about the issues these days is the right move when the other side does nothing but whip their base up into a frenzy with personal attacks. You can’t counter “she’s a communist, she’s gonna let murderers into the country, etc” with “we are gonna raise the child tax credit”.

I think the Harris campaign should have been running ads with 1/6 imagery non stop. All the ads I’m seeing from her(in N.C.) are centered around trump is gonna give the rich tax breaks and impose tariffs and I just see how that is going to sway anyone
 
1moretimeagain said:
When canvassing do you have a checklist of which residences to hit or do you go to every door in the area you’re working?
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Sorry about the delay in responding. The Democratic office assists you in downloading a smartphone app that will show a map of houses in an area that are considered targets. All have at least one resident that is a registered Democrat or Unaffiliated. This does not prevent interactions with another person at the residence that is Republican.

We have knocked on 60 doors over two days canvassing and have had no bad experiences. My wife did say that a white woman driving by did give her a look of displeasure once. We were wearing Harris/Walz tee shirts, so not exactly inconspicuous.

Getting back to the smartphone app, it’s pretty good. The office has you enter a code that displays the target residences on a map with the number of target individuals at the residence inside a bubble. Selecting the bubble displays names of the individuals, the street address, and the latest party affiliation. There is a prepared spill, but I never use it. Results of the visit are logged in blanks and notes can be taken. I used this often to give information that no results blank described. These were things like need for a ride with phone number or listing additional voter counts than those displayed. There are the one-offs too, like talking to a man that was working on his car but his residence was not displayed as a target. His house actually had four straight Democrat voters. He received a grateful handshake and we had a good conversation.

Good stuff!
 
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