2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[superrific]

I literally said it. People are freaking about the R turnout being bigger than Dems so far. That shows right there that it's their formerly EDay vote coming out early.

There are two sides to a "R turnout is bigger than D turnout" narrative. Sure, it could be that R turnout is just being time-shifted more than D turnout. But what if a) overall Republican turnout is higher overall and/or b) Dem turnout just doesn't materialize? I don't think the glass half full view is any more grounded than the glass half empty one.

Of course there's also the little matter of what names are on the ballots being returned. To me, that's a more important variable than I think the media and election analysts are giving credit. Maybe I'm wrong about that.

Also, where the hell did those numbers come from? I can't square the claim about PA in that tweet with what I'm seeing on the PA official voting sites.

 

[superrific]

Also in NC, in 2020 R's turnout was 81% and D's was 75%, so a 6% difference in turnout. (with UA being 70%)

Right now its just a 3% advantage for R's, so I'm hoping that if D's can have the turnout disparity of 5% and under, then that's a good thing.

If we can end it being D turnout out 76% and R at just 79% she has a better shot.

What is UA?

 

[aGDevil2k]

What is UA?

unaffiliated

 

[lightbluenc]

What is UA?

Unaffiliated, sorry I'll edit the post to reflect it.

On top of that, I think there were a chunk of Dems that switched party ID to Unaffiliated to vote in the primary for Haley. So some of the numbers of actual registered D's has gone way down.

 

[superrific]

By the way, the Dems were said to have a target of surplus Dem turnout (that is, Dem registered ballots - Rep registered ballots) of 400K. It's leveling off but still growing, and it's at 372K.

I don't know the modeling on that 400K number. I have to assume that getting 400K makes a victory quite likely (you have to set goals that are meaningful), and so if we top off at, say, 390K we're still in good shape. I don't know if that's true, though.

Still, I'd rather be us than them in PA and MI. I'd rather be them than us in AZ. I think GA and NC are both close. I'd rather be us in MI than them in either of those states -- and I'd rather be in the position of not *needing* either and definitely not needing both.

 

[superrific]

unaffiliated

Ah yes, the classic two letter abbreviation for one word. It's like when people say out loud "Dubya Dubya Two." That's more of an old timer thing and maybe the younger folks don't get the reference.

 

[HeelingAg]

How is that going to work when Joe Biden is the president?

Favorable courts, widespread terrorism, and corrupt electors, amongst a myriad of contrivances. They did it in 2020 in a last minute fashion, and nearly succeeded. They’ve been planning a coup, should they lose, for > 4 yrs. The red wave polls, violent rhetoric, push for early voting, pre-written lawsuits, constant barrage of disinformation, etc. is of a piece. And to be clear, ttump is merely the useful idiot. The people behind him are a combo of clever, some downright brilliant, sociopaths and ideologues.

If ttump wins won’t matter, other than the removal of anyone in the electoral process who won’t genuflect, in perpetuity, to ttump, thiel, musk, Vance, and whatever ghouls they elevate.

 

[Icky Mettle]

I literally said it. People are freaking about the R turnout being bigger than Dems so far. That shows right there that it's their formerly EDay vote coming out early. It's not some magic new R influx.

And the whole R vs D is pointless when a third of the vote is unaffiliated. So it's just weird how folks have been like omgtheRvoteisbig.com

Anecdotal here, but I know a lot of Rs voting for Kamala. So who knows what % of the early voter Rs is actually voting for Trump.

 

[aGDevil2k]

By the way, the Dems were said to have a target of surplus Dem turnout (that is, Dem registered ballots - Rep registered ballots) of 400K. It's leveling off but still growing, and it's at 372K.

I don't know the modeling on that 400K number. I have to assume that getting 400K makes a victory quite likely (you have to set goals that are meaningful), and so if we top off at, say, 390K we're still in good shape. I don't know if that's true, though.

Still, I'd rather be us than them in PA and MI. I'd rather be them than us in AZ. I think GA and NC are both close. I'd rather be us in MI than them in either of those states -- and I'd rather be in the position of not *needing* either and definitely not needing both.

They called it a firewall - so yeah you would have to think 400 means "no chance they catch up at all" - so something less than that is a swing. Is it 370? Feels too close to 400, if 400 is truly a firewall

 

[Mundial]

So I think aGDevil2k has it right, there has clearly been a concerted effort by the right to get their voters out and early to stiffle any early election votes that the D's cast. They are also flooding the polls with red wave polling in an effort to skew the national polls and show the race as closer than it is. I also think that some of the bigger polls (CNN with new ownership, NYT) are overcompensatiing for the "silent" Trump voter effect. I don't think that exists anymore. Trump voters are proud and we are three cycles in, there is no shame anymore (see the Man In the High Castle rally at MSG last night).

I think when voters come out in full force from both parties, the D's win. There are just more D's in the US. I also believe that there is a silent Harris voter that is going to materialize (R's who hate what has happened to their party, women who will vote D in private, men who are horrified that their daughters could be raped and forced to have the child, etc.). I also think Trump is not going to get as much military votes as he thinks.

If Trump, the House, and/or the SC attempt a coup, Biden need only look to the steps that Lincoln took at the start of the Civil War in order to preserve the union. Edited to add that there is only one Armed Services in our country and it is not these make believe soldiers running around with Ar's.

Of course I could be wrong about the above.

 

[HeelYeah2012]

That’s his public, PR-rendered position. Anyone voting for Trump, after so many vile, treacherous things he’s said and done, cannot only care about their alleged financial fortunes (which doesn’t hold up) under Trump.

HY is too cowardly to own his real reasons publicly.

The most direct reasons I voted for Trump, all of which I have shared previously, are:

1) The average person's dollar stretched further than ever before during Trump's first presidency. Now everything from groceries to gas is totally out of control and creating financial strain on the middle class. I personally have been able to save and invest in accordance with my goals under all 3 of Obama/Trump/Biden, because I am young and well-educated and have worked my tail off in my career, so my personal situation has only gotten better under each successive administration since I graduated. But some of my less-fortunate family members are struggling the last 4 years after thriving under Trump.

2) Trump will work to reduce illegal immigration. I had a close childhood friend who died in 2023 of fentanyl overdose so this danger became personal to me in the last couple years.

3) No new wars during Trump's first term. And then after the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle from the Biden administration, it emboldened Putin to move on Ukraine, Hamas to slaughter innocent Jews and the ensuing slaughter of innocent Palestinians in Gaza since, and of course China flirting with Taiwan....

4) Democrats nationwide lost their ever-loving minds during COVID and it opened my mind to which side stands for personal freedom vs which side stands for authoritarian policies and the government being the answer to everything to save us from ourselves (hint: the authoritarian side is the side that likes to accuse the other side of being authoritarian)

5) Drain the swamp.. "The system" in Washington DC and their friends in the news media can't stand Donald Trump. The administrative state in this country is absurd and we need political outsiders in there to clean up as much of the mess as possible. Half the country was led to believe that everything with Joe Biden's health was fine for the last 4 years, and they bought it hook/line/sinker until it was exposed for the world to see on national TV during the debate. If Harris and others will downright lie to you about the mental state of the POTUS, what else are they lying about?

 

[lightbluenc]

The most direct reasons I voted for Trump, all of which I have shared previously, are:

1) The average person's dollar stretched further than ever before during Trump's first presidency. Now everything from groceries to gas is totally out of control and creating financial strain on the middle class. I personally have been able to save and invest in accordance with my goals under all 3 of Obama/Trump/Biden, because I am young and well-educated and have worked my tail off in my career, so my personal situation has only gotten better under each successive administration since I graduated. But some of my less-fortunate family members are struggling the last 4 years after thriving under Trump.

2) Trump will work to reduce illegal immigration. I had a close childhood friend who died in 2023 of fentanyl overdose so this danger became personal to me in the last couple years.

3) No new wars during Trump's first term. And then after the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle from the Biden administration, it emboldened Putin to move on Ukraine, Hamas to slaughter innocent Jews and the ensuing slaughter of innocent Palestinians in Gaza since, and of course China flirting with Taiwan....

4) Democrats nationwide lost their ever-loving minds during COVID and it opened my mind to which side stands for personal freedom vs which side stands for authoritarian policies and the government being the answer to everything to save us from ourselves (hint: the authoritarian side is the side that likes to accuse the other side of being authoritarian)

5) Drain the swamp.. "The system" in Washington DC and their friends in the news media can't stand Donald Trump. The administrative state in this country is absurd and we need political outsiders in there to clean up as much of the mess as possible. Half the country was led to believe that everything with Joe Biden's health was fine for the last 4 years, and they bought it hook/line/sinker until it was exposed for the world to see on national TV during the debate. If Harris and others will downright lie to you about the mental state of the POTUS, what else are they lying about?

Trump had his chance and he failed. He didn't stop fentanyl from coming in the country, he didn't stop people from dying when he threw out the pandemic playbook, he didn't stop inflation from happening. He made it all worse. That's a fact.

 

[TangledUpInBlue06]

The most direct reasons I voted for Trump, all of which I have shared previously, are:

1) The average person's dollar stretched further than ever before during Trump's first presidency. Now everything from groceries to gas is totally out of control and creating financial strain on the middle class. I personally have been able to save and invest in accordance with my goals under all 3 of Obama/Trump/Biden, because I am young and well-educated and have worked my tail off in my career, so my personal situation has only gotten better under each successive administration since I graduated. But some of my less-fortunate family members are struggling the last 4 years after thriving under Trump.

2) Trump will work to reduce illegal immigration. I had a close childhood friend who died in 2023 of fentanyl overdose so this danger became personal to me in the last couple years.

3) No new wars during Trump's first term. And then after the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle from the Biden administration, it emboldened Putin to move on Ukraine, Hamas to slaughter innocent Jews and the ensuing slaughter of innocent Palestinians in Gaza since, and of course China flirting with Taiwan....

4) Democrats nationwide lost their ever-loving minds during COVID and it opened my mind to which side stands for personal freedom vs which side stands for authoritarian policies and the government being the answer to everything to save us from ourselves (hint: the authoritarian side is the side that likes to accuse the other side of being authoritarian)

5) Drain the swamp.. "The system" in Washington DC and their friends in the news media can't stand Donald Trump. The administrative state in this country is absurd and we need political outsiders in there to clean up as much of the mess as possible. Half the country was led to believe that everything with Joe Biden's health was fine for the last 4 years, and they bought it hook/line/sinker until it was exposed for the world to see on national TV during the debate. If Harris and others will downright lie to you about the mental state of the POTUS, what else are they lying about?

2) Trump will work to reduce illegal immigration - Disagree. Trump had Rs kill a bipartisan border security bill. Why? Because accusing the other side of being soft on illegal immigration is a winning issue for Rs, and you can't point fingers if the problem is being addressed. It in no way serves Trump to resolve the illegal immigration issue. In fact, the opposite is true.

5) You want to make sure those in government don't lie to the public, so you're entrusting that job to....Donald Trump? Are you familiar with him? Or do you just prefer his lies?

 

[CFordUNC]

 

[superrific]

So I think aGDevil2k has it right, there has clearly been a concerted effort by the right to get their voters out and early to stiffle any early election votes that the D's cast. They are also flooding the polls with red wave polling in an effort to skew the national polls and show the race as closer than it is. I also think that some of the bigger polls (CNN with new ownership, NYT) are overcompensatiing for the "silent" Trump voter effect. I don't think that exists anymore. Trump voters are proud and we are three cycles in, there is no shame anymore (see the Man In the High Castle rally at MSG last night).

I think when voters come out in full force from both parties, the D's win. There are just more D's in the US. I also believe that there is a silent Harris voter that is going to materialize (R's who hate what has happened to their party, women who will vote D in private, men who are horrified that their daughters could be raped and forced to have the child, etc.). I also think Trump is not going to get as much military votes as he thinks.

If Trump, the House, and/or the SC attempt a coup, Biden need only look to the steps that Lincoln took at the start of the Civil War in order to preserve the union. Edited to add that there is only one Armed Services in our country and is not these make believe soldiers running around with Ar's.

Of course I could be wrong about the above.

1. The downside of the "GOP has made a concerted effort to get their votes out early" argument is that it means the GOP has an effective ground game and/or GOTV operation. And I've been hoping that the GOP's ground game was terrible.

That said, there are a few things here. First, in GA, Trump is using Kemp's GOTV and that's a solid operation. In MI, by contrast, the state party has nothing. I don't know how much it has in PA either, given that the party was shellacked in 2022 with horrible, horrible candidates who raised no money. So if GA turnout is good for them, it doesn't mean it will be good in MI and PA.

2. I've seen nothing from the Times to suggest that it's overcompensating for the "silent" voter effect. Other polls are doing more (this is the import of the recalled-vote weighting). It's possible the Times just has a method that will skew a bit right. I mean, it is weighting on a LOT of different categories. I'm not sure how they do that, exactly. The only way I can think it can be done is by disaggregating votes. That is, you model a vote as consisting X% of race, Y% of gender, z% of homeownership, q% of age, etc. ,and then you place weights on each component and then sum them up again. Is that a good method? I have no idea.

Also, keep in mind that the NYT polling averages have Kamala winning in NV, PA, MI and WI. By less than a point, but still.

 

[rodoheel]

The most direct reasons I voted for Trump, all of which I have shared previously, are:

1) The average person's dollar stretched further than ever before during Trump's first presidency. Now everything from groceries to gas is totally out of control and creating financial strain on the middle class. I personally have been able to save and invest in accordance with my goals under all 3 of Obama/Trump/Biden, because I am young and well-educated and have worked my tail off in my career, so my personal situation has only gotten better under each successive administration since I graduated. But some of my less-fortunate family members are struggling the last 4 years after thriving under Trump.

2) Trump will work to reduce illegal immigration. I had a close childhood friend who died in 2023 of fentanyl overdose so this danger became personal to me in the last couple years.

3) No new wars during Trump's first term. And then after the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle from the Biden administration, it emboldened Putin to move on Ukraine, Hamas to slaughter innocent Jews and the ensuing slaughter of innocent Palestinians in Gaza since, and of course China flirting with Taiwan....

4) Democrats nationwide lost their ever-loving minds during COVID and it opened my mind to which side stands for personal freedom vs which side stands for authoritarian policies and the government being the answer to everything to save us from ourselves (hint: the authoritarian side is the side that likes to accuse the other side of being authoritarian)

5) Drain the swamp.. "The system" in Washington DC and their friends in the news media can't stand Donald Trump. The administrative state in this country is absurd and we need political outsiders in there to clean up as much of the mess as possible. Half the country was led to believe that everything with Joe Biden's health was fine for the last 4 years, and they bought it hook/line/sinker until it was exposed for the world to see on national TV during the debate. If Harris and others will downright lie to you about the mental state of the POTUS, what else are they lying about?

A few of the more obvious points:

1. "Now everything from groceries to gas is totally out of control and creating financial strain on the middle class." This is just objectively false. Inflation is way down and has been better in the post-COVID US than anywhere else. And neither you nor anyone else has offered any credible reason to think Trump has any plan to lower inflation. Your entire basis for thinking Trump will lower inflation is just "inflation was low last time he was president." Which is the reasoning of a child. If your relatives were doing great under Trump and are struggling financially under Biden, it's probably their own fault.

2. "My friend died from a fentanyl overdose so I support mass deportations of illegal immigrants" is just an absolutely wild logical leap to make. The freaking Cato Institute, abotu as far from left-wing as you can get, says the vast majority of fentanyl smuggling is done by US Citizens: https://www.cato.org/blog/us-citizens-were-802-crossers-fentanyl-ports-entry-2019-2024 If you hate immigrants and believe great replacement theory or something just say so rather than making such a hilarious justification for supporting Trump's immigration policies.

3. Drain the swamp and replace it with an even worse swamp? The first Trump admin was a nest of grifters and fraudsters. The second will be even worse. Corruption will run rampant, just like it did last time. You would rather Trump and his cronies loot the public treasury and explode the debt even further if it means your taxes go down 2%. Just admit it.

4. "Hint: the authoritarian side is the side that likes to accuse the other side of being authoritarian." Once again the reasoning of a child. And ignores the rather obvious reality that Trump and his campaign are constantly calling the other side authoritarian - just like you called the other side authoritarian in your own post! What hopelessly reductive reasoning. You think freaking vaccine mandates and mask mandates during a pandemic are authoritarian, but mass deportations and increasing executive power aren't? What a joke.

 

[Mulberry Heel]

dukeman92 did that to you 3 days ago. Then you go right back and ask the same damn question. If he shows you the data, you will be right back here tomorrow with the same question.

Haven't most of the early voter results in many states (including some swing states) showing that women are voting in higher numbers than men, including when compared to 2020? I would think that would be a very good sign for Harris, given what happened in 2022 and the post-Roe growing gender gap.

 

[superrific]

Oh I promise I am not looking to do that. I’m just looking to celebrate with y’all. Not gonna spike the football on anyone other than MAGAts.

Fucking A, man. Spike the football wherever you damn please if you're right. If you want to come to my house and spike a football in my literal face, we could arrange that (though it's a lot of travel for little reward). I just want to win.

 

[rodoheel]

Fucking A, man. Spike the football wherever you damn please if you're right. If you want to come to my house and spike a football in my literal face, we could arrange that (though it's a lot of travel for little reward). I just want to win.

I will be happy for the entire board to call me lawtig and Cford's little bitch for the next six months if it means defeating Trump

 

[Mundial]

1. The downside of the "GOP has made a concerted effort to get their votes out early" argument is that it means the GOP has an effective ground game and/or GOTV operation. And I've been hoping that the GOP's ground game was terrible.

That said, there are a few things here. First, in GA, Trump is using Kemp's GOTV and that's a solid operation. In MI, by contrast, the state party has nothing. I don't know how much it has in PA either, given that the party was shellacked in 2022 with horrible, horrible candidates who raised no money. So if GA turnout is good for them, it doesn't mean it will be good in MI and PA.

2. I've seen nothing from the Times to suggest that it's overcompensating for the "silent" voter effect. Other polls are doing more (this is the import of the recalled-vote weighting). It's possible the Times just has a method that will skew a bit right. I mean, it is weighting on a LOT of different categories. I'm not sure how they do that, exactly. The only way I can think it can be done is by disaggregating votes. That is, you model a vote as consisting X% of race, Y% of gender, z% of homeownership, q% of age, etc. ,and then you place weights on each component and then sum them up again. Is that a good method? I have no idea.

Also, keep in mind that the NYT polling averages have Kamala winning in NV, PA, MI and WI. By less than a point, but still.

The downside of the "GOP has made a concerted effort to get their votes out early" argument is that it means the GOP has an effective ground game and/or GOTV operation. And I've been hoping that the GOP's ground game was terrible.

1. The downside of the "GOP has made a concerted effort to get their votes out early" argument is that it means the GOP has an effective ground game and/or GOTV operation. And I've been hoping that the GOP's ground game was terrible.

That said, there are a few things here. First, in GA, Trump is using Kemp's GOTV and that's a solid operation. In MI, by contrast, the state party has nothing. I don't know how much it has in PA either, given that the party was shellacked in 2022 with horrible, horrible candidates who raised no money. So if GA turnout is good for them, it doesn't mean it will be good in MI and PA.

2. I've seen nothing from the Times to suggest that it's overcompensating for the "silent" voter effect. Other polls are doing more (this is the import of the recalled-vote weighting). It's possible the Times just has a method that will skew a bit right. I mean, it is weighting on a LOT of different categories. I'm not sure how they do that, exactly. The only way I can think it can be done is by disaggregating votes. That is, you model a vote as consisting X% of race, Y% of gender, z% of homeownership, q% of age, etc. ,and then you place weights on each component and then sum them up again. Is that a good method? I have no idea.

Also, keep in mind that the NYT polling averages have Kamala winning in NV, PA, MI and WI. By less than a point, but still.

Super all due respect but your attempting to understand the MAGA movement is like Ozymandias or Reed Richards trying to understand the ants in Antman. The only “coordination” with most of these voters is social media. I have interacted and discussed with a very representative group and that is literally all that has been done to get them out (and a healthy dose of Fox, One, Sean Ryan, etc.).