2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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Paine said:
A certain amount of young people, at least in my cohort, don’t think it will make a difference if they do or don’t vote.

Can’t really blame them. It’s unlikely that their vote will matter unless they live in a swing state. Young women bucking the trend since they’ve actually seen a right taken away by a president.
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You may not blame them, but I blame any voter ( and especially young voters because it is their future that hangs in the balance ) for not voting
 
Raijin23 said:
Although my father got me to loosely follow presidential races around the time of Clinton's first race when I was around 13, I didn't start to care about politics and how it affected me until 2012.

I voted for Obama in 2008 but that was more because it was a historic election that I wanted to be a part of. By the time 2012 had rolled around, I more awareness and participation in all things political.

Needless to say, 2016 and Trump's victory was the catalyst for me following politics 24/7 so that I can better understand how it will affect me, my family, my community and my country.

My point is that, for some, it takes a while to become engaged when you don't really see how it will affect you personally or even others.
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I have a 21 ish year old "extended family member" that lives in a moderate size town He makes a living with some trade skills-has some buddies-a nice family of origin. I doubt he has ever considered voting. I Imagine his role model Dad has never voted.
I suspect if he did he would vote like a trade skills white boy in the red state he lives in
 
Counter-argument about herding





Pollsters like their exclamation points.

school house rock wow GIF
 
RockyMtnHoo said:
Wouldn’t that mean TX is on pace for about 500K more votes this year? I would think that’s not a good thing for Cruz.
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A million behind 2020 at this same point (going into the last day of early voting, not going into Election Day) means potentially a lot fewer votes this cycle, which suggests the low propensity blue turnout for Allred isn’t turning out.

Of course it could mean that Republicans are depressed by the awfulness of what their one-party state has wrought but Texas is a low turnout state these days and a lot of people there don’t see the point of bothering in the face of what looks like overwhelming odds.
 
nycfan said:
A million behind 2020 at this same point (going into the last day of early voting, not going into Election Day) means potentially a lot fewer votes this cycle, which suggests the low propensity blue turnout for Allred isn’t turning out.

Of course it could mean that Republicans are depressed by the awfulness of what their one-party state has wrought but Texas is a low turnout state these days and a lot of people there don’t see the point of bothering in the face of what looks like overwhelming odds.
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Ok, ouch…I read that wrong. I know flipping TX (POTUS or Senate) has always been kind of a mirage, but was hoping Dems would be driving higher turnout than that.
 
nycfan said:
A million behind 2020 at this same point (going into the last day of early voting, not going into Election Day) means potentially a lot fewer votes this cycle, which suggests the low propensity blue turnout for Allred isn’t turning out.

Of course it could mean that Republicans are depressed by the awfulness of what their one-party state has wrought but Texas is a low turnout state these days and a lot of people there don’t see the point of bothering in the face of what looks like overwhelming odds.
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I really haven’t thought about this so you may be right but why would low propensity voters favor Allred in this election? Especially in a state like TX where abortion is a MASSIVE motivating issue.
 
heelinhell said:
not challenging you but wondering why you think the early voting number is a good sign for Cruz ?
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www.kxan.com

Texas Republicans lead early turnout by more than a million, early vote data suggests

The biggest share of voters, however, are those who have either voted in both parties’ primaries or have no primary voting history at all.
www.kxan.com

Texas Republicans lead early turnout by more than a million, early vote data suggests​


“Nearly seven million Texans have already voted — nearly a third of all registered voters in the state — and their voting histories suggest Republicans are turning out much more than Democrats.

As of Wednesday afternoon, 3,029,470 early voters had previously voted in Republican primaries and have no history of voting in Democratic primaries, according to voting data analyst Dr. Ross Hunt. A total of 1,931,949 early voters had only voted in previous Democratic primaries, and 1,820,739 voters were classified as independents, meaning they have history of voting in both or neither parties’ primaries.

That history suggests those voters came into the voting booth with a strong partisan lean, though it cannot definitively predict which candidates they prefer.


Based on that data, analysts believe that Republicans have an early vote lead of about 1.1 million votes.

“If that number sounds large… it is large. That is much more than we’ve seen in previous elections,” Dr. Ross Hunt with the Republican consulting firm Murphy Nasica said. “A lot of this has to do with building up numbers over time… every day that passes, that vote remains net Republican. It was at least 7% net Republican yesterday. The Republicans just continue to add to their lead.”

The biggest share of voters, however, are those who have either voted in both parties’ primaries or have no primary voting history at all — those voters total up to more than 2.3 million. …”
 
RockyMtnHoo said:
Ok, ouch…I read that wrong. I know flipping TX (POTUS or Senate) has always been kind of a mirage, but was hoping Dems would be driving higher turnout than that.
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Texas also had 7 more days of in-person early voting in 2020. Going to be some temporal changes in terms of when various groups vote.

Exhibit #47 as to why analyzing the early vote doesn't tell you much other than there are people voting
 
heel17 said:
Texas also had 7 more days of in-person early voting in 2020. Going to be some temporal changes in terms of when various groups vote.

Exhibit #47 as to why analyzing the early vote doesn't tell you much other than there are people voting
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Yeah they had a week extra because of the pandemic and then the Rs there made it way more difficult for folks to vote after that.
 
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