2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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If the Iowa poll is true, and the election ends up being not even close, it may actually make the MAGATS double down on the cheating accusations, because they’ll say there’s no way she won by that much.


But I guess they are going to do that no matter what, so bring it on I guess
 
nycfan said:


The Iowa poll has to be this year’s weirdo Wisconsin poll, but maybe still some good news in there.
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1. Seltzer is a gold standard. Might she be off? Yes. But Trump won Iowa by 8 in 2020. If her poll is even 6 points wrong, Trump +3 is a huge degradation from his 2020 performance and probably means his goose is cooked.

2. I just don't think she is going to be wrong by 10 points. I mean, all that woman does is poll Iowa. She's the sole A+ graded pollster by 538. As of 2019, 538 was calling her "the best pollster in America." So yeah, she could be off, but in this environment, Trump should be at least +8.

3. That Wisconsin poll was a landline poll during the pandemic, when liberals were staying home with nothing much to do except maybe answer polls, whereas conservatives were out and about. I don't think is going to be comparable.
 
I just want you to know that no matter how hard you guys try you can’t make me confident for Tuesday. I’m assuming it’s a loss until the second the major networks call it. We need big turnout on Tuesday and to avoid Pub shenanigans to suppress the vote.
 
rodoheel said:
I just want you to know that no matter how hard you guys try you can’t make me confident for Tuesday. I’m assuming it’s a loss until the second the major networks call it. We need big turnout on Tuesday and to avoid Pub shenanigans to suppress the vote.
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Season 9 Eye Roll GIF by The Office




(jk, you're totally entitled to feel that way. Completely understandable.)
 
uncjhodges said:
it’s pretty amazing to release an article complaining about herding then ignore the outlier poll from the unanimous best pollster
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He didn't say he ignored it. He said it was balanced out by something else. I mean, maybe. There's so much polling everywhere else that maybe one poll doesn't move the needle that much. I don't know how his model works, exactly. But I would think that this ought to move the average at least somewhat.

In fairness to Nate, it's really hard to calibrate a model when you only get data every 2 or 4 years, the data you do get is highly flawed (i.e. polls), and you can't really measure the accuracy of your model except from the national popular vote, which is meaningless.
 
aGDevil2k said:
I hope this election ends Nate
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I suspect Nate does too. I think he wants to a professional poker player. Or an entrepreneur. Or something other than a guy who gets an enormous amount of shit because he built a forecasting model that is pretty good.

Yes, he's an ass sometimes on twitter and his hot takes are bad. But I just don't understand the extreme vitriol toward him.
 
rodoheel said:
I just want you to know that no matter how hard you guys try you can’t make me confident for Tuesday. I’m assuming it’s a loss until the second the major networks call it. We need big turnout on Tuesday and to avoid Pub shenanigans to suppress the vote.
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If I were a post, this is me. All you optimists … FUCK OFF! I’m pre-coping over here!
 
superrific said:
He didn't say he ignored it. He said it was balanced out by something else. I mean, maybe. There's so much polling everywhere else that maybe one poll doesn't move the needle that much. I don't know how his model works, exactly. But I would think that this ought to move the average at least somewhat.

In fairness to Nate, it's really hard to calibrate a model when you only get data every 2 or 4 years, the data you do get is highly flawed (i.e. polls), and you can't really measure the accuracy of your model except from the national popular vote, which is meaningless.
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No one gets upset about his model (no one being rational)

It's his persona and commentary trying to always be right and always be the expert at everything that rubs everyone the wrong way

People that can't admit they are wrong and have to be overly opinionated are easy to dislike
 
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