2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
  • Start date Start date
  • Replies: 6K
  • Views: 144K
  • Politics 
CFordUNC said:


Extraordinarily tiny sample size, so obviously take it with a massive grain of salt. Interesting nonetheless.
Click to expand...

Not extraordinarily tiny. Small, yes, but margin of error scales as a square root. So a 150 LV panel has 2x the margin of error as a standard 600 LV poll. It's wide, but that result is shocking. If it's 75-18, that's still terrible for Trump. Not necessarily for FL but for PA and other states.
 
superrific said:
Not extraordinarily tiny. Small, yes, but margin of error scales as a square root. So a 150 LV panel has 2x the margin of error as a standard 600 LV poll. It's wide, but that result is shocking. If it's 75-18, that's still terrible for Trump. Not necessarily for FL but for PA and other states.
Click to expand...
Ohh good info! Thanks super. That’s interesting.
 
I don't get the 538 model still having Trump a slight favorite. Based on everything I am seeing, Harris a not a slight favorite, but I think probable to win. I think the NYT needled may start with a toss up but shift toward Harris relatively quickly after results start coming in. I live in a heavily Republican area, and there just isn't the same enthusiasm. I think Harris will ultimately just have a better ground game and just get more people to the polls.
 
A year or two ago, I signed up for a Trump rally (I wanted a buddy to go with me; couldn’t get anyone).

I still get numerous texts from Trump’s campaign daily. Opportunities to donate, buy $47 MAGA hats, shoes, Bibles, watches, etc. Texts encouraging me to vote early - they’ve been encouraging early voting since before early voting started.

My guess is Trump’s Election Day advantage might not be as large in 2024 as it was in 2020.
 
HeelInTheOzarks said:
For sure. That’s the part nobody can know.
Click to expand...
Well we know that Michigan is already past 50% of 2020 turnout. And they have a few more days of early voting. Even if you’re conservative and say 500K more people vote than 2020, it would still favor Harris.
Need to do some napkin math on the Pa and Wisconsin numbers but i believe they also favor Harris
 


Anyone remember when gtyellowjacket went to the mat hilariously defending political betting markets as useful predictors of political races?
 
EhringhausSouth said:
I don't get the 538 model still having Trump a slight favorite. Based on everything I am seeing, Harris a not a slight favorite, but I think probable to win. I think the NYT needled may start with a toss up but shift toward Harris relatively quickly after results start coming in. I live in a heavily Republican area, and there just isn't the same enthusiasm. I think Harris will ultimately just have a better ground game and just get more people to the polls.
Click to expand...
The 538 model is, at this point, just going by polls. The polls make it look as though it's a 50/50 race. The model doesn't consider other factors like turnout, enthusiasm, early voting, etc. It's just a polls-only model right now.
 
superrific said:
Holy shit, that poll was in the field before MSG.

I'm guessing the temporal breakdown is something like:

Polled before MSG: Kamala 60-40
After MSG: Kamala 95-3
Click to expand...
Unfortunately, the Cubans will ensure that Florida stays red. Trump inexplicably is at his all time high favorability with Cubans (68%).
 
uncjhodges said:
Well we know that Michigan is already past 50% of 2020 turnout. And they have a few more days of early voting. Even if you’re conservative and say 500K more people vote than 2020, it would still favor Harris.
Need to do some napkin math on the Pa and Wisconsin numbers but i believe they also favor Harris
Click to expand...
I'd love to see it when you're done
 
quakerdevil said:
I'd love to see it when you're done
Click to expand...
with some rounding.
Michigan, roughly 2.8 mil votes already. 5.5 mil total votes. based on these poll numbers
Harris- 2.8 mil -50.9%
Trump- 2.6 mil- 47.3%

Wisconsin. roughly 1.5 mil so far, 3.5 mil total votes.
Harris - 1.755 mil- 50.1%
Trump- 1.65 mil- 47.2%

PS- almost 2 million total votes early, 7 million total
Harris- 3.46 mil- 49.4%
Trump- 3.4 mil- 48.6%
 
RockyMtnHoo said:
Which to me is hilarious because MAGA’s (and very likely Trump himself) don’t see them as one bit different from the other groups.
Click to expand...
My great-uncle (b. 1910 or so) was a highly successful salesman for General Mills or General Foods. He was also the most racist MFer I’ve ever met.

He did A LOT of business in South Florida. A LOT. He even started a couple of successful, long-running bakeries in Little Havana.

He HATED the Cubans, the Hispanic ones. Hated them. HATED! Called them wetbacks….lazy thieves….

Get George going on black folks and a new level of vitriol came exploding out.

Black Cubans (as tiny of a number as that was in George’s day)……new level of hatred.
 
uncjhodges said:
with some rounding.
Michigan, roughly 2.8 mil votes already. 5.5 mil total votes. based on these poll numbers
Harris- 2.8 mil -50.9%
Trump- 2.6 mil- 47.3%

Wisconsin. roughly 1.5 mil so far, 3.5 mil total votes.
Harris - 1.755 mil- 50.1%
Trump- 1.65 mil- 47.2%

PS- almost 2 million total votes early, 7 million total
Harris- 3.46 mil- 49.4%
Trump- 3.4 mil- 48.6%
Click to expand...
So, your “back-of-the-napkin” math says this is the final result?
  • 60K delta for Harris in PA
  • 110+K in Wisky
  • 200K in Michigan
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top