2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
  • Start date Start date
  • Replies: 6K
  • Views: 183K
  • Politics 
Cappy the Stool Man said:
I've thought 2008 to be the closest analogy since the Convention, with the only difference being that in '08 there weren't all the outlets trying to sell that it was close, at least not in the last month or so of the race.
Click to expand...
Amen to this. Been saying the same since Harris fundraising went through the roof in the first week.

But there’s no money to be made in polling or analysis that has Harris up comfortably. “Dead heats” are where the clicks and eyeballs (and ad revenue, engagement, etc.) are frenzied.
 
Cappy the Stool Man said:
I've thought 2008 to be the closest analogy since the Convention, with the only difference being that in '08 there weren't all the outlets trying to sell that it was close, at least not in the last month or so of the race.
Click to expand...
I dunno. The big difference in 2008 was that we were coming off of 8 straight years of a Republican administration that ended in a disastrous recession. In this election there's already a Dem president. Now, that should be a benefit because the economy is doing well and there is every reason to believe we're on the right track, but half the country is convinced things are going badly for mostly made-up reasons and can't be persuaded otherwise. So I just can't see 2008 as a model. 2012 would probably be a better comparison.
 
Definitley doesn’t feel like 08. Really feels like 2016, just flipped or 2012 with more Dem enthusiasm
 
akillesheel said:
Jamelle Bouie, who I think is one of the smartest political minds alive, agrees with you: he shared that he's been feeling that this election very much has the feeling of a "reverse 2016."
Click to expand...
So he will win the popular vote and she will win the EC?
 
aGDevil2k said:
So he will win the popular vote and she will win the EC?
Click to expand...
I don't think that's out of the realm of possibility, though it's still highly unlikely and would probably mean razor-thin margins in multiple swing states. I think what he really means, though, is that Republicans, at least publicly, are coming in supremely confident believing that they're in great shape based on polling, and are going to be flabbergasted by the polls they're relying on being off by a few points in Dems' favor - just like Dems in 2016, where we were mostly expecting a comfortable win based on polling and came out shocked by what happened. That election also saw sharp movement in Trump's favor over the last week or two (thanks James Comey) like some people think they're seeing late-breaking movement for Kamala here.

I'm skeptical; I still think what we're going to see is a nailbiter that could fall either way, and may not be called until a day or two after the election.
 
late breaking "undeciders" will determine the margin of victory in the swing states and nationally...

I am guessing the undeciders are going to break for Kamala and save our democracy 🤞
 
rodoheel said:
I don't think that's out of the realm of possibility, though it's still highly unlikely and would probably mean razor-thin margins in multiple swing states. I think what he really means, though, is that Republicans, at least publicly, are coming in supremely confident believing that they're in great shape based on polling, and are going to be flabbergasted by the polls they're relying on being off by a few points in Dems' favor - just like Dems in 2016, where we were mostly expecting a comfortable win based on polling and came out shocked by what happened. That election also saw sharp movement in Trump's favor over the last week or two (thanks James Comey) like some people think they're seeing late-breaking movement for Kamala here.

I'm skeptical; I still think what we're going to see is a nailbiter that could fall either way, and may not be called until a day or two after the election.
Click to expand...
If Selzer is even directionally accurate, the EC could be a wipeout
 
rodoheel said:
I don't think that's out of the realm of possibility, though it's still highly unlikely and would probably mean razor-thin margins in multiple swing states. I think what he really means, though, is that Republicans, at least publicly, are coming in supremely confident believing that they're in great shape based on polling, and are going to be flabbergasted by the polls they're relying on being off by a few points in Dems' favor - just like Dems in 2016, where we were mostly expecting a comfortable win based on polling and came out shocked by what happened. That election also saw sharp movement in Trump's favor over the last week or two (thanks James Comey) like some people think they're seeing late-breaking movement for Kamala here.

I'm skeptical; I still think what we're going to see is a nailbiter that could fall either way, and may not be called until a day or two after the election.
Click to expand...
Don't forget: Republican poll inflation is a strategy to amplify the coming accusations of cheating and a stolen election.
 
Icky Mettle said:
If what Thomas Mills said above is accurate, how is the Black early voting turnout disappointing? It’s 17k more than the turnout from 2020, and that was a year where early turnout was more likely due to the pandemic. I guess I would have to see the numbers from 2016, 2012, and 2008 to get a better understanding.
Click to expand...
If the HBCUs are able to do what they’ve said they’re going to do, then there should be a pretty sizable bump with Black voting numbers. You have to think that not only will they try to get all of the students out to vote, but the alumni base well, which tend to be fairly local. I have hope.
 
aGDevil2k said:
So he will win the popular vote and she will win the EC?
Click to expand...
lol it was more vibes-based than that. here's the tiktok video (for those who don't know, Bouie is an NYT columnist who happens to have a platform on TikTok; I'm not just quoting an online content creator and calling him the smartest political mind we have):

basically, the idea is that trump is now hillary: entering with a lot of confidence and a sense of entitlement to the presidency, but seen as an establishment candidate who polled well but didn't have much energy or attendance at her rallies and events; while kamala - even as the current VP - reads as somewhat anti-establishment due to her identity, "we're not going back" messaging, and the way by which she got the nomination, has vibes and an energized base that belie some of her polling numbers in much the way that we saw happen with Trump.
 
akillesheel said:
Jamelle Bouie, who I think is one of the smartest political minds alive, agrees with you: he shared that he's been feeling that this election very much has the feeling of a "reverse 2016."
Click to expand...
I just don't get this take. If Biden had stayed in the race, trailed substantially in the polling the entire time, and then somehow eked out a win on Election Day behind a bunch of people who didn't show up in the polling, that might be a reverse 2016. But as pessimistic as everyone has been, Kamala has actually looked REALLY GOOD ever since she showed the public she's not the bumbling idiot the Pubs had been making her out to be. The chart of her favorability after she became the nominee is stunning --

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Kamala Harris : Favorability Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com

It's come back recently with all of Trump's negative ads, but for the most part, everyone other than hardcore GOPers thinks Kamala is just fine. And a lot of people think she's terrific. I just don't see the corollary to 2016 with Kamala in the race.

I do get why people might think this is more like 2012 than 2008, and here's one way to reconcile it. Non-MAGA men might see this race as more of an "incumbency referendum" like 2012. But I think an enormous percentage of American women see this as a "movement election" like 2008. And in my view, it's the latter that will carry Kamala to a substantial victory.
 
Shame and fear are entirely different reasons for not disclosing how you are going to vote.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top