2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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People didn’t know Trump as a politician in 2016 and he was running as an incumbent in 2020 (huge advantage). I think everything is going to break her way.
 
rodoheel said:
Yeah this is my fear: huge movement to Trump in young male voters to offset young women, and mean the overall youth vote is not as good for Harris as we hope.
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But a winning demographic is still one you want to see turn out more than before
 
ICFree said:
You know something? Not only are we going to New Hampshire, rodoheel, we’re going to South Carolina! And Oklahoma! And Arizona! And North Dakota! And New Mexico! We’re going to California! And Texas! And New York! And we’re going to South Dakota! And Oregon! And Washington and Michigan!
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Election memory until I die.
 
I was talking to a guy I go to church with and he’s a liberal (not as progressive as me) but he believes Trump will win. We both are financially pretty well off and he said that’s disconnected us from the normal persons struggles on inflation. He’s convinced folks are not that complex. Prices are higher now and despite the fact that Trump caused a lot of that, we were coming off a pandemic and we managed the nearly impossible (soft landing), people won’t get it. They see prices are higher and our income has shielded us from that. He works as a supervisor at a manufacturing plant in Apex and is closer to those impacted from inflation.

Who knows and I guess we will see today.
 
1moretimeagain said:
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What fucking blowhards like Wasserman dont care about with posts like that, while factually correct, they make the situation more dangerous if polls were slanted towards Harris, then the simpletons on the right will riot, and he might have just gotten someone hurt with that post.
 
Willy said:
One dynamic that I haven’t seen discussed is youth voters in rural vs urban areas as it relates to housing prices. This may be another factor that flips conventional wisdom on its head. A 22-year old college graduate in Iowa likely expects to own a house one day, because houses are still affordable in Iowa. So they are less likely to want to “burn the whole thing down.” A 22-year old in Wake County may be priced out of the market and “short-term pain” may be appealing as a way to level the playing field.
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Well voting for the person who wants to give $$ to first time homeowners afford the downpayment would make sense
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
I was talking to a guy I go to church with and he’s a liberal (not as progressive as me) but he believes Trump will win. We both are financially pretty well off and he said that’s disconnected us from the normal persons struggles on inflation. He’s convinced folks are not that complex. Prices are higher now and despite the fact that Trump caused a lot of that, we were coming off a pandemic and we managed the nearly impossible (soft landing), people won’t get it. They see prices are higher and our income has shielded us from that. He works as a supervisor at a manufacturing plant in Apex and is closer to those impacted from inflation.

Who knows and I guess we will see today.
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I agree, and it’s probably the biggest headwind that Harris faces. Trump would unequivocally be worse for those struggling, but the layperson isn’t as dialed in as this board is. For the most part, we are very insulated here. We are mainly older, white, upper-middle class and above men and women. We may see some of the impacts with our kids, but many of us are also helping with housing down payments, etc.

Dobbs may be enough to propel Harris across the finish line, but I think this will be a nail biter.
 
uncgriff said:
Thread title needs a change. Polls no longer matter, only turnout. Need long lines in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Milwaukee, Madison, Charlotte, Durham and all University towns
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Well the Dirty Bull already had 50% of voters vote, so could be not as long today!
 
NEW EXIT POLL THREAD:

nycfan

Politics Thread 'EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift'

Thought we might benefit from a thread dedicated to the exit polls and turnout data as that becomes available today.

NBC Exit Polls —> National Exit Polls: Election 2024 Results

www.telegraph.co.uk

Presidential election 2024 recap: Donald Trump secures landslide victory

Donald Trump has won in Michigan, completing his rout of the “blue wall” in a landslide election victory that lays the ground for a radical second term in office.
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk

“… The embargo period for exit polls will end at 5pm ET on polling day, after which news organisations are allowed to begin reporting results from individual states.

However, at this point they are not permitted to project a winner while voting is still taking place.

Exit polls will...
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