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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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Ddseddse said:
My uneducated guess is that it is the mainstream Protestant vote breaking for Kamala in a way that won't be reflected among evangelicals. These are the old school church ladies and not the new school holly roller/prosperity gospel types. If that's true I expect to see this break the along the same geographical divide (i.e. more in the mid-west, less in the south). I have nothing but raw instinct to back this up. But that's my suspicion.

ETA: With all that being said, if true, that's still ridonkulous good news for Kamala and spells victory anyway, I think.
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You might be on to something there. Many years ago I started looking at abortion differently due to my grandmother. (She passed away about 5 years ago). She was a southern Baptist by marriage but was 2nd generation Swedish. Grew up in Chicago. She helped to understand why the choice had to be made by the women and why she had to have that right.
 
HandsonFire said:
Wow can you imagine the weeping and wailing , the gnashing of teeth in conservative land. That might cause them to riot in the streets.
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Don't too much agree with the term conservative for this group. They've shed about the only virtues that made conservative input valuable while clinging to the vices that made it untrustworthy. Call it Trumpland. Those people will riot in the streets over any kind of hurt feelings.
 
Ddseddse said:
My uneducated guess is that it is the mainstream Protestant vote breaking for Kamala in a way that won't be reflected among evangelicals. These are the old school church ladies and not the new school holly roller/prosperity gospel types. If that's true I expect to see this break the along the same geographical divide (i.e. more in the mid-west, less in the south). I have nothing but raw instinct to back this up. But that's my suspicion.

ETA: With all that being said, if true, that's still ridonkulous good news for Kamala and spells victory anyway, I think.
Click to expand...
As someone who grew up Presbyterian in an area that was mostly southern Baptist, I can see that…
 
Anyone see Frank Luntz squirm like hell on MSNBC earlier? "I think XYZ...but I am not predicting anything!"
 


Nevada politics specialist:

“…
The early vote is different from any since this data was kept in such detail, and I began analyzing it. Usually, the Democrats, fueled by the machine that Harry Reid built, erect a firewall in populous Clark County that is designed as a bulwark against losses in the 15 red counties, with Washoe County often deciding who wins. But this cycle, with former President Donald Trump and Co. discovering it might be smart to encourage Republicans to vote early and even by mail (the horror!), the GOP vote has been frontloaded. The inverse is true and the question is whether the Democrats can overcome a 43,000-plus GOP ballot lead as I write this.

I won’t repeat a lot of my analysis of this – you can read it on the blog — that concludes Trump probably has a 30,000 raw vote lead right now. But my theory of the case is there are still a lot of Clark County mail ballots to be counted that favor Democrats and the GOP partial cannibalization of its Election Day vote will propel some Democrats to victory but perhaps not quite get there with others. Which is which?

… The key to this election has always been which way the non-major-party voters break because they have become the plurality in the state. They are going to make up 30 percent or so of the electorate and if they swing enough towards Harris, she will win Nevada. I think they will, and I’ll tell you why: Many people assume that with the GOP catching up to the Democrats in voter registration that the automatic voter registration plan pushed by Democrats that auto-registers people as nonpartisans (unless they choose a party) at the DMV had been a failure for the party. But I don’t think so. There are a lot of nonpartisans who are closet Democrats who were purposely registered by Democrat-aligned groups as nonpartisans. The machine knows who they are and will get them to vote. It will be just enough to overcome the Republican lead – along with women motivated by abortion and crossover votes that issue also will cause. I know some may think this reflects my well-known disdain for Trump, heart over data. But that is not so. I have often predicted against my own preferences; history does not lie. I just have a feeling she will catch up here, but I also believe – and please remember this – it will not be clear who won on Election Night here, so block out the nattering nabobs of election denialism. It’s going to be very, very close.

Prediction: Harris, 48.5 percent; Trump 48.2 percent; others and None of These Candidates, 3.3 percent. …”
 
Personally I am worried about the dangerous Lutheran vote.......................
 
nycfan said:


Pollercoaster is about to end folks!
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While nice to see, the respondents from that poll also previously voted 58% Joe Biden and 35% Donald Trump, and the actual outcome from the state was 52/45, so maybe not the most representative sample.

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