I hear you but it's one thing to hear about a thing in theory and another thing to experience it in practice. In any event I'm not really offering my own opinion, just agreeing with you that Iowa could have movement towards Harris for reasons that don't translate to other states and offering the theory that Selzer herself discussed.
My uneducated guess is that it is the mainstream Protestant vote breaking for Kamala in a way that won't be reflected among evangelicals. These are the old school church ladies and not the new school holly roller/prosperity gospel types. If that's true I expect to see this break the along the same geographical divide (i.e. more in the mid-west, less in the south). I have nothing but raw instinct to back this up. But that's my suspicion.
Wow can you imagine the weeping and wailing , the gnashing of teeth in conservative land. That might cause them to riot in the streets.
You might be on to something there. Many years ago I started looking at abortion differently due to my grandmother. (She passed away about 5 years ago). She was a southern Baptist by marriage but was 2nd generation Swedish. Grew up in Chicago. She helped to understand why the choice had to be made by the women and why she had to have that right.
Don't too much agree with the term conservative for this group. They've shed about the only virtues that made conservative input valuable while clinging to the vices that made it untrustworthy. Call it Trumpland. Those people will riot in the streets over any kind of hurt feelings.
As someone who grew up Presbyterian in an area that was mostly southern Baptist, I can see that…
Likely voter vs Registered voter
As I said on another thread - he basically said it was a coin flip but that his gut says Kamala pulls it out.
