2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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NEW EXIT POLL THREAD:

nycfan

Politics Thread 'EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift'

Thought we might benefit from a thread dedicated to the exit polls and turnout data as that becomes available today.

NBC Exit Polls —> National Exit Polls: Election 2024 Results

www.telegraph.co.uk

What time will we get exit polls for the 2024 presidential election?

Result could take weeks or even months to determine depending on how close it is
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk

“… The embargo period for exit polls will end at 5pm ET on polling day, after which news organisations are allowed to begin reporting results from individual states.

However, at this point they are not permitted to project a winner while voting is still taking place.

Exit polls will...
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mpaer said:
Oh I don't want it
South is Carrboro , North is Cedar Grove is why I asked Night and Day
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Damn see I thought we were going to be friends. South of Hillsborough, but not C/CH.

Though around Cedar Grove it is massively less Trumpy than it was in 2020.
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
I was talking to a guy I go to church with and he’s a liberal (not as progressive as me) but he believes Trump will win. We both are financially pretty well off and he said that’s disconnected us from the normal persons struggles on inflation. He’s convinced folks are not that complex. Prices are higher now and despite the fact that Trump caused a lot of that, we were coming off a pandemic and we managed the nearly impossible (soft landing), people won’t get it. They see prices are higher and our income has shielded us from that. He works as a supervisor at a manufacturing plant in Apex and is closer to those impacted from inflation.

Who knows and I guess we will see today.
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Yeah I have heard some of this sentiment but the bottom line is voters this low on information and in a demographic sweating grocery prices are usually already Trump voters. The question is whether their misinterpretation of the cause of grocery prices/inflation is going to spur apathetic voters to go vote Trump, or turn a vote from Harris to Trump. I could be wrong but I just don't see this being anything like Dobbs or January 6 which are really, really motivating people.
 
LosPollosHermanos said:
Yeah I have heard some of this sentiment but the bottom line is voters this low on information and in a demographic sweating grocery prices are usually already Trump voters. The question is whether their misinterpretation of the cause of grocery prices/inflation is going to spur apathetic voters to go vote Trump, or turn a vote from Harris to Trump. I could be wrong but I just don't see this being anything like Dobbs or January 6 which are really, really motivating people.
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I would agree on Dobbs. I think 1/6 is a nothing burger and won’t impact the election today at all. It should be Americans have crazily grown numb to it all.
 

If Trump were running against Biden right now, he’d be up 7 points​

New YouGov polling offered Americans an alternative history: What if President Joe Biden hadn’t dropped out?

"... Before we dig into the data any further, we will acknowledge that, as with all of these sorts of questions, the results are necessarily tainted by reality. Biden isn’t the candidate and hasn’t been the beneficiary of months of ads promoting his candidacy. His party isn’t forced to vote for him to prevent Trump from returning to the White House, giving Democrats space for apathy that might not have otherwise existed.

... The YouGov survey consisted of two questions, one evaluating support in a Trump-Harris contest and the second in a Trump-Biden matchup. Overall, Harris did eight points better than Biden, and Trump did two points worse against the vice president than the president. The margin goes from a seven-point lead for Trump against Biden to a three-point deficit. ..."

biden poll.jpeg
 
Nate Silver: “At exactly midnight on Tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle. Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases. She did not win in 39,988 simulations (49.985%).”

FiveThirtyEight gives Harris a 50% chance to win.

Decision Desk HQ gives Trump a 53% chance to win.

The Economist gives Harris a 50% chance to win.
 
nycfan said:
Nate Silver: “At exactly midnight on Tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle. Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases. She did not win in 39,988 simulations (49.985%).”

FiveThirtyEight gives Harris a 50% chance to win.

Decision Desk HQ gives Trump a 53% chance to win.

The Economist gives Harris a 50% chance to win.
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The model is just seeing national polls at 50-50. It doesn’t say anything.
 
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