2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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aGDevil2k said:
What on earth happened to Ohio in a decade
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Cleveland shrank and West Appalachia grew. Ohio has been trending red for a long time. The people who can get out do, and they are typically the educated folks who now vote Dem. It's the same story in Iowa, which was once a battleground state and is now basically red. The people there aren't the best and the brightest.

It's also the same story in Michigan, I think, though Michigan was starting out from a bluer starting point. In these places, the minorities tend to be concentrated in the declining urban areas, which are then scapegoated and the state's politics becomes Detroit/Cleveland versus the mostly white people out state.
 
superrific said:
Cleveland shrank and West Appalachia grew. Ohio has been trending red for a long time. The people who can get out do, and they are typically the educated folks who now vote Dem. It's the same story in Iowa, which was once a battleground state and is now basically red. The people there aren't the best and the brightest.

It's also the same story in Michigan, I think, though Michigan was starting out from a bluer starting point. In these places, the minorities tend to be concentrated in the declining urban areas, which are then scapegoated and the state's politics becomes Detroit/Cleveland versus the mostly white people out state.
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It's the same in every city in the midwest that was an industrial base.

St. Louis peak population 856k (1950), now 301K
Detroit peak population 1.84M (1950), now 639K
Cleveland peak population 914K (1950), now 372K
Cincinnati peak population 503K (1950), now 311K
Pittsburgh peak population 676K (1950), now 303K
Milwaukee peak population 741K (1960), now 575K
Buffalo peak population 580K (1950), now 278K

I'm pretty sure St. Louis is the #1 city in America in lost population percentage. As recently as the 2004 election Missouri was still thought of as a bellwether state, but St. Louis has just shrunk too much to keep the state competitive. Ohio is the same story (2 major cities bleeding population). Michigan and Wisconsin are still hanging on. Pittsburgh's decline has slowly made Pennsylvania redder, as now Philadelphia has to almost outvote the rest of the state by itself.
 
SnoopRob said:
I
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HeelInTheOzarks said:
It's the same in every city in the midwest that was an industrial base.

St. Louis peak population 856k (1950), now 301K
Detroit peak population 1.84M (1950), now 639K
Cleveland peak population 914K (1950), now 372K
Cincinnati peak population 503K (1950), now 311K
Pittsburgh peak population 676K (1950), now 303K
Milwaukee peak population 741K (1960), now 575K
Buffalo peak population 580K (1950), now 278K

I'm pretty sure St. Louis is the #1 city in America in lost population percentage. As recently as the 2004 election Missouri was still thought of as a bellwether state, but St. Louis has just shrunk too much to keep the state competitive. Ohio is the same story (2 major cities bleeding population). Michigan and Wisconsin are still hanging on. Pittsburgh's decline has slowly made Pennsylvania redder, as now Philadelphia has to almost outvote the rest of the state by itself.
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Those must be city proper numbers, no? I would think metro vs. metro would be the more relevant stat, as the city suburbs are voting blue now.
 
HeelInTheOzarks said:
It's the same in every city in the midwest that was an industrial base.

St. Louis peak population 856k (1950), now 301K
Detroit peak population 1.84M (1950), now 639K
Cleveland peak population 914K (1950), now 372K
Cincinnati peak population 503K (1950), now 311K
Pittsburgh peak population 676K (1950), now 303K
Milwaukee peak population 741K (1960), now 575K
Buffalo peak population 580K (1950), now 278K

I'm pretty sure St. Louis is the #1 city in America in lost population percentage. As recently as the 2004 election Missouri was still thought of as a bellwether state, but St. Louis has just shrunk too much to keep the state competitive. Ohio is the same story (2 major cities bleeding population). Michigan and Wisconsin are still hanging on. Pittsburgh's decline has slowly made Pennsylvania redder, as now Philadelphia has to almost outvote the rest of the state by itself.
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Yeah, St. Louis was the only thing keeping MO from being Arkansas. That's St. Louis city, btw, not St. Louis County. The county is still blue overall, but not like the city. And the far out burbs are pretty red I think.
 
Icky Mettle said:
I haven’t heard much from Seinfeld. What’s he been saying?
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Basically he's gone on several rants in recent years about how woke far left political correctness has ruined comedy and there have been no great sitcoms since the 90s because of it. And you can't really do stand-up comedy at college campuses because students are too easily offended, even though plenty of comedians still do the college comedy circuit. Basically everything (and especially comedy) was better back in the day when he was younger and you could say offensive things about various groups of people and individuals and still get a laugh.
 
Calheel said:
Those must be city proper numbers, no? I would think metro vs. metro would be the more relevant stat, as the city suburbs are voting blue now.
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Yes and that's true but the hollowing out of the cities themselves still has a monster effect as the cities are huge Democratic wipeouts and suburbs tilt blue but not by anywhere near the same margins.

Since 1950
St. Louis metro +1.2M, city -555K
Detroit metro +1.6M, city -1.2M
Cleveland metro +400K, city -542K
Cincinnati metro +1M, city -192K
Pittsburgh metro +57K, city -373K
Milwaukee metro +560K, city -166K
Buffalo metro +77K, city -302K
 
HeelInTheOzarks said:
Yes and that's true but the hollowing out of the cities themselves still has a monster effect as the cities are huge Democratic wipeouts and suburbs tilt blue but not by anywhere near the same margins.

Since 1950
St. Louis metro +1.2M, city -555K
Detroit metro +1.6M, city -1.2M
Cleveland metro +400K, city -542K
Cincinnati metro +1M, city -192K
Pittsburgh metro +57K, city -373K
Milwaukee metro +560K, city -166K
Buffalo metro +77K, city -302K
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A bunch of that Cincinnati metro is in Kentucky. The largest city in Ohio is Columbus
 
Mulberry Heel said:
Basically he's gone on several rants in recent years about how woke far left political correctness has ruined comedy and there have been no great sitcoms since the 90s because of it. And you can't really do stand-up comedy at college campuses because students are too easily offended, even though plenty of comedians still do the college comedy circuit. Basically everything (and especially comedy) was better back in the day when he was younger and you could say offensive things about various groups of people and individuals and still get a laugh.
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Same thing all the other lame-ass, washed up, no-longer-funny guys say these days.
 
I personally think their likely voter models are all going to miss the composition of the electorate this year because they think it will be like 2016
 
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