2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[CFordUNC]

 

[Mulberry Heel]

I've said this before and I'll say it again - I think the trauma of Trump's 2016 upset victory is greatly underestimated when it comes to its effects on many Democrats. It's very easy to worry and be anxious about each election with Trump at the top of the ballot, because he won once and came too damn close to winning in 2020, even after his shitty presidency and horribly bungled response to covid. I think many Democrats are having flashbacks and nightmares to 2016 happening all over again, and with the consequences to everyone if he wins, much of the anxiety is justified, imo.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Bloomberg with that and at the same time the WSJ dumps a piece of shit that has her unfavorable higher than his..

Like ok... As Axelrod said "yeah if you really believe that poll"

 

[1moretimeagain]

 

[superrific]

This Nevada data has me a little worried. Not because I care all that much about NV, but because of the high rural turnout. Could be just Nevada, but if the rurals come out in force, it could be a long night.

 

[BlueSmoke]

The fact is, she has to sweep the three mid western states. That's a high, high lift. No positive or negative data points change that lift.

 

[dukeman92]

Stop reacting to party turnout in early voting!

The GOP is pushing it this year....so dont expect similar "D early, R on E Day" patterns. It may be very very very very different now and in the future.

Even Trump has said he’s voting early this year.

 

[finesse]

I still think that we're going to find that the undeclared voters will be the ones voting for a biracial woman instead of some supposedly hidden group ashamed to admit a preference for Trump. Most of those are rampantly proud of their stupidity these days.

 

[aGDevil2k]

This Nevada data has me a little worried. Not because I care all that much about NV, but because of the high rural turnout. Could be just Nevada, but if the rurals come out in force, it could be a long night.

Not if they come out in force early versus on election day

 

[HeelInTheOzarks]

The Nevada thing is weird to me. Don't Clark and Washoe counties outnumber the rest of the state several times over? So a rural "firewall" would only be possible if Trump has better-than-expected margins in the urban areas.

 

[uncjhodges]

Early voting data tells us nothing when there is a large shift in patterns. The rural voters didn’t magically double in numbers. The only place that seems to be holding similar is PA

 

[CFordUNC]

 

[nycfan]

WSJ National poll flips from Harris + 2 in late August to Trump +2 (RV)

 

[aGDevil2k]

WSJ National poll flips from Harris + 2 in late August to Trump +2 (RV)

Ah there's the poll. I was hearing it get ripped on quality last night so I wondered what it was.

Also a 45-47, no matter who, less than 2 weeks out, is shit. There are not 8% undecided or voting for the pathetic 3rds. And anything with her disapproval way higher than his? ok

 

[theel4life]

 

[nycfan]

 

[Geisterfahrer]

Seems pretty silly and meaningless to focus on which party has the lead when independents make up nearly a full third of those casting votes.

 

[heel17]

Seems pretty silly and meaningless to focus on which party has the lead when independents make up nearly a full third of those casting votes.

I would be curious to see overall trends of voter registration by county. A lot of ancestral Dems in NC despite Republicans winning the presidency every cycle except '08

Comparing to 2020 is a fool's errand, but do hope the enthusiasm shows up for Dems right through election day.

 

[4thgenheel]

I've said this before and I'll say it again - I think the trauma of Trump's 2016 upset victory is greatly underestimated when it comes to its effects on many Democrats. It's very easy to worry and be anxious about each election with Trump at the top of the ballot, because he won once and came too damn close to winning in 2020, even after his shitty presidency and horribly bungled response to covid. I think many Democrats are having flashbacks and nightmares to 2016 happening all over again, and with the consequences to everyone if he wins, much of the anxiety is justified, imo.

yeah, i know we've talked about it a lot on this board and its a huge topic in all of my group chats and texts with friends and family, too.

the PTSD from 2016 is real.

 

[superrific]

Not if they come out in force early versus on election day

I get it. But Ralston is the gold standard in NV journalism. I took him to be saying that the rural turnout is exceedingly high period, not just for early voting. If I was reading this from some no-name about another state it wouldn't really bother me.